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Thread: Is This Free Bet a Positive Value Play

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    Is This Free Bet a Positive Value Play

    I'm presently at the Platinum Tier with Caesars Rewards. I'm suppose to get a $10 free bet every month, but I have only received it a couple of times, and was wondering why I wasn't getting it every month. Then I discovered the fine print which says: for Monthly Free Bet, must have placed at least $100 cash wager which settles during the previous calendar month. I don't know if this requires at least a $100 bet or if it can be several bets that total $100.

    Now I'm less than $26,000 away in play to make it to Diamond at Caesars and then I will get a $20 free bet each month, but you still have to make a $100 wager. So is it worth it to make a $100 bet to get a $20 free bet? How about at the $10 level?

    Really the only sport I'm into is football and anything else would just be a guess. Should I try for Diamond level at Caesars? I don't know if enough promotion play will be offered before the end of the year to make it, but I can just play if it will be worth it to get Diamond.

  2. #2


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    So, FIND OUT if it's just a single $100 wager, or if you can make multiple ones. Stop guessing at what it is. If multiple, then make a series of $5 bets to reduce the variance. If you bet the single $100, you're going to win or lose the whole amount, so there's a lot of risk. If you make 20 $5 bets, you aren't going to lose all 20 of them (no matter how hard you try!).

    Second, if you make the wager(s) at blackjack, you're talking about -0.5% EV on $100, or 50 cents, so, OF COURSE that's worth getting $10 a month, if not $20, later. Surely, you can figure this out yourself, no?

    Finally, are all of these 50 cents and $10 a month really exciting to you?

    Don

  3. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Midwest
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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    I'm presently at the Platinum Tier with Caesars Rewards. I'm suppose to get a $10 free bet every month, but I have only received it a couple of times, and was wondering why I wasn't getting it every month. Then I discovered the fine print which says: for Monthly Free Bet, must have placed at least $100 cash wager which settles during the previous calendar month. I don't know if this requires at least a $100 bet or if it can be several bets that total $100.

    Now I'm less than $26,000 away in play to make it to Diamond at Caesars and then I will get a $20 free bet each month, but you still have to make a $100 wager. So is it worth it to make a $100 bet to get a $20 free bet? How about at the $10 level?

    Really the only sport I'm into is football and anything else would just be a guess. Should I try for Diamond level at Caesars? I don't know if enough promotion play will be offered before the end of the year to make it, but I can just play if it will be worth it to get Diamond.


    It can be broken up in smaller bet's, does not have to be a single $100.00 bet

  4. #4


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    Good. Make 20 $5 bets and hope to get lucky. Earn the 10 bucks.

    Don

  5. #5


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    SPeaking of bet's, Don, you haven't been the spelling/grammar police for quite a while. Retired from that sideline?

  6. #6


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    Just go collect soda pop bottles. You'll make more money with zero risk.
    Last edited by ShipTheCookies; 11-17-2022 at 07:21 AM.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    So, FIND OUT if it's just a single $100 wager, or if you can make multiple ones. Stop guessing at what it is. If multiple, then make a series of $5 bets to reduce the variance. If you bet the single $100, you're going to win or lose the whole amount, so there's a lot of risk. If you make 20 $5 bets, you aren't going to lose all 20 of them (no matter how hard you try!).

    Second, if you make the wager(s) at blackjack, you're talking about -0.5% EV on $100, or 50 cents, so, OF COURSE that's worth getting $10 a month, if not $20, later. Surely, you can figure this out yourself, no?

    Finally, are all of these 50 cents and $10 a month really exciting to you?

    Don
    Okay, I did call them and the $100 bet can be broken up into smaller bets as long as they total $100. From what you written above you seem to imply the wager can be played on blackjack. It can't. To get the $10 or $20 free bet, you must make a sports bet (or several small ones) totaling $100 the month before. Not as easy to figure out if this is positive play.

    No, these small bets aren't exciting, but they do go into the pot and help. A lot of my play is on small promotions ($10 to $50 bonus) and they don't take long to complete. Since Oct 12th I played 61 promotions (or sessions) and only lost on three. Total losses during this period totaled $736, while total wins over these 60 sessions totaled slightly over $13,000. The wins ranged from $10 to $3,200 and everything in between, but mostly small wins. I excluded one extraordinary large win from these numbers because it won't likely ever happen again (I won't go into detail). However, if I quit right now for the year this will be my 3rd best year ever. My 2nd best year happened the first year I retired when I did a lot of brick and mortar blackjack play. My best year ever was last year with all online play.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by ShipTheCookies View Post
    Just go collect soda pop bottles. You'll make more more with zero risk.
    I tried that once back in my college days when 10 cents was a lot of money. Didn't find enough cans along the side of the road to even pay for my gas.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    I tried that once back in my college days when 10 cents was a lot of money. Didn't find enough cans along the side of the road to even pay for my gas.
    That's because you live in an area with about 2 people per square mile.

  10. #10

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