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Thread: Promotion: Journey to $100,000. Should I Have Quit When Ahead

  1. #1


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    Promotion: Journey to $100,000. Should I Have Quit When Ahead

    Recently played a promotion that required $100,000 in action to win $1,000 in free credits. The expected loss was around $500 so it was a positive value promotion.

    As it seems to happen so often with these promotions, I got ahead right off the bat. However, this time was different. I wasn't just a little bit ahead but what I consider to be a lot. At around the $40,000 play mark I found myself $3,000 ahead. At this point I considered quitting the promotion and cashing out. I knew the game would turn as it always does.

    Yep, I decided to play on and when sp21 turns it doesn't have any mercy. I lost about $1,500 in 20 minutes. I quit that game and went to regular blackjack. Tried several of them and just managed to hold my own. I finally found a bj game that was good and clawed my way back to $3,000 ahead at a little over the $60,000 mark. At this point I didn't consider quitting because I was too far along, but the game did turn south again, but not as bad as before.

    When I reached the $100,000 I was about $700 below my high of around $3,000. However, the free credits played poorly and I ended up only a few hundred more than if I would have quit at the $40,000 mark. Anybody think I should have quit early?

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    I think it depends..always a good answer right? . If you were up 50K at some point, and then “quit while you were ahead”, I think most people would say you made a good choice. To me, since this is a closed ended promotion with a “fixed” EV, then you decide what threshold above that is good for you. Also, is there value to finishing the promotion? (Earning tier credits, cover, etc) *oldnewguy prepares for dissenting opinions*

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    I once played a $1K loss rebate promo for a new player card sign-up (Palms?) I played a $100 slot and on the third pull, I hit a 5K jackpot. I stopped there.

    Given MWP's choices of playing online BJ/Sp21 or shoveling snow, I'd choose the former and continue play.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    I once played a $1K loss rebate promo for a new player card sign-up (Palms?) I played a $100 slot and on the third pull, I hit a 5K jackpot. I stopped there.

    Given MWP's choices of playing online BJ/Sp21 or shoveling snow, I'd choose the former and continue play.
    Yeah I didn’t consider the Midwest boredom factor, so forget everything I said..whole different universe .

  5. #5


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    Read the fine print. Sometimes abandoning or cancelling a promotion results in the loss of the bonus and any winnings from playing as far as you did.

    One thing I sometimes do is to reduce my bet when ahead by a "significant" amount. You don't change your EV at all but you reduce variance, thus "protecting" your gain to a certain extent. On the down side, it takes longer to finish.

    It also depends on whether you have a steady stream of promotions to play. If so then, just as we don't expect to win every session when counting, you don't need to try to win every single promotion. Just keep playing them and enjoy the continuous positive EV. If this is a one-time or rare thing, then you might be more inclined to take a guaranteed win for an amount that is significant to you.

    Lastly, as with other advantage plays, what has happened is less important than what is likely to happen if you keep playing. We don't abandon a high count because we have already lost many rounds while playing it. Similarly with promotions, if it is +EV to continue and the risk is manageable, then why not keep playing? In your specific case, you started off with a $100,000 wagering requirement for a $1,000 bonus. At the $40,000 mark you were ahead, but you were also in the position where you now had a $60,000 wagering requirement for a $1,000 bonus. Would you not have played that promotion if it had been offered in the first place? If so, why not play it now? The fact that it didn't work out this time should not be the determining factor. That's like saying I shouldn't have raised by bets because I lost in a high count or I shouldn't have doubled my hand because I lost.
    Last edited by Gronbog; 11-15-2022 at 12:40 PM.
    Semper ubi sub ubi

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