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Thread: Sports betting odds question

  1. #1


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    Sports betting odds question

    Got a tricky one (maybe) for the mathematizers. Barstool sports runs a promo (Mortal Lock) where they give a 3-leg NFL parlay pick at pretty favorable odds (+1268 on Barstool and DK has it for +889). The promo requires a $25 bet and will return $10 in bonus cash for every leg that hits if the parlay loses. Assume that $10 can be converted to cash at 100% (because it can). Any way to figure the EV on this one? I usually hedge with a worst-case scenario of losing all three legs by making an opposite 3 leg parlay that would cover the $25 if that happened. Usually, I lose both. But the Mortal Lock will hit every so often, of course. Odds for the individual 3 legs are -154, -115, and +100. Hopefully, this is super easy and I just look mathematically incompetent . Thanks.

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    Question: You don't pick your own teams for the parlay? They impose the three bets on you and ask you to pick a side for each game?

    Don

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    If those are the only games (and I did this very quickly, so I may have made a mistake), I make your EV from winning the parlay +$51.35. From winning exactly one game: +$3.38, and from winning two games, +$8.88. Grand total: +$63.61.

    Betting opposite, using the same odds, the three-leg parlay ought to pay +992. So, to hedge your $25 bet, you'd bet $2.52.

    In all, bet $27.52 with positive EV of $63.61. Pretty decent edge.

    Think I got it all right, but ... I wouldn't bet on it. So, somebody check my math.

    Don

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Question: You don't pick your own teams for the parlay? They impose the three bets on you and ask you to pick a side for each game?

    Don
    Let me edit again....Yes, this is their pick you have to go with...Colts +6.5; Saints -2.5; Steelers O 19.5. It's just that, no other choices. So, it's this for +1268, at a min $25 and for every leg that wins, you get $10 back, assuming the parlay loses. If it wins then you get the 25x12.68
    Last edited by Old new guy; 11-12-2022 at 01:35 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Old new guy View Post
    Let me edit again....Yes, this is their pick you have to go with...Colts +6.5; Saints -2.5; Steelers O 19.5. It's just that, no other choices. So, it's this for +1268, at a min $25 and for every leg that wins, you get $10 back, assuming the parlay loses. If it wins then you get the 25x12.68
    So, my answer should be good.

    Don

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    So, my answer should be good.

    Don
    Thanks a lot!

  7. #7


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    This Mortal Lock deal from Barstool Sports sounds like a solid bet, but you better double-check some numbers to see if it's worth your time. The odds on this game of three NFL games are pretty good, plus, even if you lose the parlay, you get $10 in bonus money for each game played, which can be converted into real money at 100%. With a few quick calculations, the expected value of this deal is definitely worth a try. But if you want to play it safe, you can always ensure your bets and betpro signup. In any case, the choice is yours, and good luck to you.
    Last edited by KamalSfint; 03-29-2023 at 04:27 AM.

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