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Thread: Sports betting odds question

  1. #1


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    Sports betting odds question

    Got a tricky one (maybe) for the mathematizers. Barstool sports runs a promo (Mortal Lock) where they give a 3-leg NFL parlay pick at pretty favorable odds (+1268 on Barstool and DK has it for +889). The promo requires a $25 bet and will return $10 in bonus cash for every leg that hits if the parlay loses. Assume that $10 can be converted to cash at 100% (because it can). Any way to figure the EV on this one? I usually hedge with a worst-case scenario of losing all three legs by making an opposite 3 leg parlay that would cover the $25 if that happened. Usually, I lose both. But the Mortal Lock will hit every so often, of course. Odds for the individual 3 legs are -154, -115, and +100. Hopefully, this is super easy and I just look mathematically incompetent . Thanks.

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    Question: You don't pick your own teams for the parlay? They impose the three bets on you and ask you to pick a side for each game?

    Don

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    If those are the only games (and I did this very quickly, so I may have made a mistake), I make your EV from winning the parlay +$51.35. From winning exactly one game: +$3.38, and from winning two games, +$8.88. Grand total: +$63.61.

    Betting opposite, using the same odds, the three-leg parlay ought to pay +992. So, to hedge your $25 bet, you'd bet $2.52.

    In all, bet $27.52 with positive EV of $63.61. Pretty decent edge.

    Think I got it all right, but ... I wouldn't bet on it. So, somebody check my math.

    Don

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Question: You don't pick your own teams for the parlay? They impose the three bets on you and ask you to pick a side for each game?

    Don
    Let me edit again....Yes, this is their pick you have to go with...Colts +6.5; Saints -2.5; Steelers O 19.5. It's just that, no other choices. So, it's this for +1268, at a min $25 and for every leg that wins, you get $10 back, assuming the parlay loses. If it wins then you get the 25x12.68
    Last edited by Old new guy; 11-12-2022 at 02:35 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Old new guy View Post
    Let me edit again....Yes, this is their pick you have to go with...Colts +6.5; Saints -2.5; Steelers O 19.5. It's just that, no other choices. So, it's this for +1268, at a min $25 and for every leg that wins, you get $10 back, assuming the parlay loses. If it wins then you get the 25x12.68
    So, my answer should be good.

    Don

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    So, my answer should be good.

    Don
    Thanks a lot!

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