# Thread: Sports betting odds question

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## Sports betting odds question

Got a tricky one (maybe) for the mathematizers. Barstool sports runs a promo (Mortal Lock) where they give a 3-leg NFL parlay pick at pretty favorable odds (+1268 on Barstool and DK has it for +889). The promo requires a \$25 bet and will return \$10 in bonus cash for every leg that hits if the parlay loses. Assume that \$10 can be converted to cash at 100% (because it can). Any way to figure the EV on this one? I usually hedge with a worst-case scenario of losing all three legs by making an opposite 3 leg parlay that would cover the \$25 if that happened. Usually, I lose both. But the Mortal Lock will hit every so often, of course. Odds for the individual 3 legs are -154, -115, and +100. Hopefully, this is super easy and I just look mathematically incompetent . Thanks.

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Question: You don't pick your own teams for the parlay? They impose the three bets on you and ask you to pick a side for each game?

Don

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If those are the only games (and I did this very quickly, so I may have made a mistake), I make your EV from winning the parlay +\$51.35. From winning exactly one game: +\$3.38, and from winning two games, +\$8.88. Grand total: +\$63.61.

Betting opposite, using the same odds, the three-leg parlay ought to pay +992. So, to hedge your \$25 bet, you'd bet \$2.52.

In all, bet \$27.52 with positive EV of \$63.61. Pretty decent edge.

Think I got it all right, but ... I wouldn't bet on it. So, somebody check my math.

Don

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Originally Posted by DSchles
Question: You don't pick your own teams for the parlay? They impose the three bets on you and ask you to pick a side for each game?

Don
Let me edit again....Yes, this is their pick you have to go with...Colts +6.5; Saints -2.5; Steelers O 19.5. It's just that, no other choices. So, it's this for +1268, at a min \$25 and for every leg that wins, you get \$10 back, assuming the parlay loses. If it wins then you get the 25x12.68

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Originally Posted by Old new guy
Let me edit again....Yes, this is their pick you have to go with...Colts +6.5; Saints -2.5; Steelers O 19.5. It's just that, no other choices. So, it's this for +1268, at a min \$25 and for every leg that wins, you get \$10 back, assuming the parlay loses. If it wins then you get the 25x12.68
So, my answer should be good.

Don

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Originally Posted by DSchles
So, my answer should be good.

Don
Thanks a lot!

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