15% Loss Rebate on Blackjack

[Archvaldor]

Based my calculation, we find that the strategy is simple, that is, bet your maximum possible amount to complete your gambling in one hand. That was what I did for sports betting, but I lost that bet. Maybe my strategy was incorrect?

It isn't that simple, though it is not a bad strategy. The rebate has some value even if you win the hand, so one hand only would be sub optimal.

As a practical matter you usually just bet aggressively for as little time as you can get away with to qualify for the promotion.

(I'm sure some luminary has written an endless, hopelessly impractical study of the subject which gives some technical optimal strategy and ignores the actual real-world aspects of these promotions if any one wants to take this further. You know, google it. Then again if people googled stuff this board would be dead.)

For sports bets exploit the covariance and lay off the bet with another book. Even if you lose expectation your bankroll will grow faster by reducing fluctuations.

[James989]

Casinos may be stupid -- but not that stupid.

Then what are the exact rules ?

Must fullfill certain wagering amount ?

Then you must find the optimum win exit and loss exit point, I think the best choice is to bet on SINGLE NUMBER(1 pay 35) roulette .

A) SINGLE 0 ROULETTE
BR = $66,666
Bet size on single number(1 pay 35) = $1,265
Win exit = +$49,715
Loss exit = -$66,666
Profit = $2,438
Expected roundS required = 80.3 ( about 2 hours ?)
Loss Likelihood(%) = 51.5

B) BACCARAT
BR = $66,666
Bet size on BANKER( 1: 0.95) = $22,675
Win exit = +$63,038
Loss exit = -$66,666
Profit = $2,778
Expected roundS required = 11.8 ( about 30 MINUTES ?)
Loss Likelihood(%) = 52.2

However, sim results shown that BACCARAT is a better choice !

[James989]

It isn't that simple, though it is not a bad strategy. The rebate has some value even if you lose the hand, so one hand only would be sub optimal.

As a practical matter you usually just bet aggressively for as little time as you can get away with to qualify for the promotion.

(I'm sure some luminary has written an endless, hopelessly impractical study of the subject which gives some technical optimal strategy and ignores the actual real-world aspects of these promotions if any one wants to take this further. You know, google it. Then again if people googled stuff this board would be dead.)

For sports bets exploit the co-variance and lay off the bet with another book. Even if you lose expectation your bankroll will grow faster by reducing fluctuations.

I thought one hand is always the best strategy ?

[Archvaldor]

I thought one hand is always the best strategy ?

Imagine you win the first hand. Say you bet £10k and are up 10k. You still have a very high chance of being 10K down at some stage if you continue playing. Therefore you still have a positive expectation by continuing to play, and the one- hand strategy must therefore be sub-optimal.

Essentially the best strategy is the opposite of the intuitive here: you want to maximize your possibility of a session loss, tempered only by exposure to the house edge.

[James989]

Imagine you win the first hand. Say you bet £10k and are up 10k. You still have a very high chance of being 10K down at some stage if you continue playing. Therefore you still have a positive expectation by continuing to play, and the one- hand strategy must therefore be sub-optimal.

Essentially the best strategy is the opposite of the intuitive here: you want to maximize your possibility of a session loss, tempered only by exposure to the house edge.

I mean ALL IN in one hand, bet one hand and quit, regardless of win or lose.

[aceside]

It isn't that simple, though it is not a bad strategy. The rebate has some value even if you win the hand, so one hand only would be sub optimal.

As a practical matter you usually just bet aggressively for as little time as you can get away with to qualify for the promotion.

(I'm sure some luminary has written an endless, hopelessly impractical study of the subject which gives some technical optimal strategy and ignores the actual real-world aspects of these promotions if any one wants to take this further. You know, google it. Then again if people googled stuff this board would be dead.)

For sports bets exploit the covariance and lay off the bet with another book. Even if you lose expectation your bankroll will grow faster by reducing fluctuations.

Nice of you agreeing on something I said here. The best exploitation for loss rebate should be on sports betting, because it is a guaranteed win. However, there is still a little consideration here. Suppose we bet $100 on a tennis game. If we bet on the supposedly winning team, we may win $90; if we bet on the supposedly losing team, we may win $300. Therefore, the trick here is to bet on the losing team with a large payout odds.

[aceside]

I mean ALL IN in one hand, bet one hand and quit, regardless of win or lose.

I haven’t seen you for a long time here. I asked you a question about Spanish 21 in another thread because you know this. It is about the double/hit HiLo index for the 3-card conditional play with the hand 11v10. In other words, at what HiLo index should we double down a 3-card 11v10? Instead of hit it to follow the basic strategy.