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Thread: 88 v 10 and 16v10

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by G Man View Post
    Good finding!

    Sincerely,
    Cac

  2. #15


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    RC Indexes, 8-8 v T

    Code:
    _____8-8 v T, NDAS (split) HiLo RC indexes_____
             3/4 shoe     1/2 shoe    1/4 shoe
    Decks
    1        p < 6        p < 5       unreliable
    2        p < 11       p < 8       p < 5
    3        p < 15       p < 11      p < 7
    4        p < 19       p < 13      p < 8
    5        p < 24       p < 16      p < 9
    6        p < 28       p < 19      p < 11
    7        p < 32       p < 22      p < 12
    8        p < 36       p < 24      p < 13
    
    
    _____8-8 v T, DAS (split) HiLo RC indexes______
             3/4 shoe     1/2 shoe    1/4 shoe
    Decks
    1        p            p < 7       unreliable
    2        p < 16       p < 11      p < 7
    3        p < 22       p < 15      p < 9
    4        p < 28       p < 19      p < 11
    5        p < 35       p < 23      p < 13
    6        p < 41       p < 28      p < 15
    7        p < 48       p < 32      p < 17
    8        p < 54       p < 36      p < 19
    
    
    ________8-8 v T (stand) HiLo RC indexes________
             3/4 shoe     1/2 shoe    1/4 shoe
    Decks
    1        s >= 0       s >= 0      s >= 0
    2        s >= 0       s >= 0      s >= 0
    3        s >= 0       s >= 0      s >= 0
    4        s >= 0       s >= 0      s >= 0
    5        s >= 1       s >= 0      s >= 0
    6        s >= 1       s >= 0      s >= 0
    7        s >= 1       s >= 1      s >= 0
    8        s >= 1       s >= 1      s >= 0
    k_c

  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cacarulo View Post
    Do you have any example of this? I refer to a subset whose TC is equal to zero and in turn the ratio between 789s / tens is less than 25%. That would be helpful.
    Sincerely,
    Cac
    Hey Cac! Here are two examples from K_C’s CDCA. One is at 6D with 132 cards left, the other one at DD with 66 cards left in the shoe. In both cases the HiLo RC/TC is 0.

    Attachments did not work so here are the deck compositions from 2 to A
    66666/222/24/6
    12-12-12-12-12/444/48/12


    Using K_C's tool, I did explore all HiLo TCs from -6 to +6. At just about every TC, there is a ratio of 789/T that suggests not splitting 88 against Ten and 9. With 88 against any other upcard (except the ace in some cases) splitting between TC-6 and TC+6 is always the better move.

    In short, I combine HiLo main indices with a second indice, the ratio of 789/Tens.

    Now my question is not about finding out the exact frequency of the exact two subsets shown as not all TC0 with a ratio of 789/Tens below 25% are exactly the same, just like all TC +11 are not exactly identical.

    Again, both cases are rare occurences but I believe the TC0/-25% happens more often than TC+11.

    I just don’t know how to calculate the frequency of both situations. Maybe you do. Maybe it takes a very complex sim. I don’t know.
    Hope it’s clearer now.

    Thanks again for your interest. I hope to learn a little more about combinatorial analysis as the same process could apply to just about any situation when using double indices.

  4. #17
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cacarulo View Post
    Good finding!

    Sincerely,
    Cac
    https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gamb...rategy-puzzle/

    Awesome article !
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Don't watch other people that you think are counting. Arnold Snyder wrote an article about that some decades ago. There are many kinds of strategies and methods of gaining information.
    I am at this stage still observing and playing mostly as a hobby, getting my feet wet, etc. Without specifying what I was watching, the site uses the same technique (Hi-Lo) for counting with the same basic strategy charts I've seen. I had not seen the 88v16 at tc 11 mentioned in this thread and when I saw this particular person stay at 88v10 at TC4 I had to check.

    Looking at the different replies most seem to say similar things, but it seems overwhelming how much one can lose themselves in the statistics and probabilities and the math. For me, that's what makes Blackjack so interesting, exciting, and scary all at the same time.
    Last edited by pbj; 10-11-2022 at 10:11 PM.

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat View Post
    Hey Cac! Here are two examples from K_C’s CDCA. One is at 6D with 132 cards left, the other one at DD with 66 cards left in the shoe. In both cases the HiLo RC/TC is 0.

    Attachments did not work so here are the deck compositions from 2 to A
    66666/222/24/6
    12-12-12-12-12/444/48/12


    Using K_C's tool, I did explore all HiLo TCs from -6 to +6. At just about every TC, there is a ratio of 789/T that suggests not splitting 88 against Ten and 9. With 88 against any other upcard (except the ace in some cases) splitting between TC-6 and TC+6 is always the better move.

    In short, I combine HiLo main indices with a second indice, the ratio of 789/Tens.

    Now my question is not about finding out the exact frequency of the exact two subsets shown as not all TC0 with a ratio of 789/Tens below 25% are exactly the same, just like all TC +11 are not exactly identical.

    Again, both cases are rare occurences but I believe the TC0/-25% happens more often than TC+11.

    I just don’t know how to calculate the frequency of both situations. Maybe you do. Maybe it takes a very complex sim. I don’t know.
    Hope it’s clearer now.

    Thanks again for your interest. I hope to learn a little more about combinatorial analysis as the same process could apply to just about any situation when using double indices.
    From what I am seeing it is not an easy task to analyze through combinatorial analysis. I can't promise you anything, maybe some 1D or 2D frequencies. 6D is impossible. Through a simulation is probably easier.
    However, the degree of complexity of this system is too much for my taste. Not only do you have to keep counting through Hi-Lo, you also have to count the block of 789s and recount the tens.
    On top of everything you have to calculate the ratio. It seems to me that it's too much.
    On the other hand, who says that maintaining this secondary ratio is better than a secondary ace count? I suppose that if you are determined to use this system someone must have calculated
    a SCORE or something, right? Anyway, I don't doubt that one can improve the efficiency of the game in some plays.
    It's just my point of view.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

  7. #20


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cacarulo View Post
    From what I am seeing it is not an easy task to analyze through combinatorial analysis. I can't promise you anything, maybe some 1D or 2D frequencies. 6D is impossible. Through a simulation is probably easier.
    However, the degree of complexity of this system is too much for my taste. Not only do you have to keep counting through Hi-Lo, you also have to count the block of 789s and recount the tens.
    On top of everything you have to calculate the ratio. It seems to me that it's too much.
    On the other hand, who says that maintaining this secondary ratio is better than a secondary ace count? I suppose that if you are determined to use this system someone must have calculated
    a SCORE or something, right? Anyway, I don't doubt that one can improve the efficiency of the game in some plays.
    It's just my point of view.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

    Hey Cac. If you could provide a frequency for DD that would be great.

    As far as complexity, it's just a matter of training, skills and knowledge of the ratios.
    There are some shorthands to simplify the process but it would be too long to explain.

    I do count the aces. Basically it's a 4-count approach. HiLo/A/789/Tens
    With that information you can see how easy it is to calculate the exact number of 23456s.
    Now you know exactly how many Aces/789s/Tens/Lows are in the shoe.
    Plus I get perfect insurance.

    I don't have a SCORE yet as in order to get one, I need to do two things.

    First, I have to clearly establish the Double Indices. (HiLo+ratio of 789/10s)
    This part is mostly done thanks to KC's CDCA.

    Second, I need a sim but besides Gronbog, and perhaps you, who can sim this HiLo Double Indice system?
    Plus how do you derive double indices from a sim?
    So I have to trust the CDCA with even distribution of 789s within the group.

    My guess is that my SCORE will be on par with Tarzan Basic, Tarzan Advanced and Tarzan Ultimate
    depending on addind key Cards to it or not.
    Actually, Tarzan saw where I am getting at and told me that my results should be similar to his.

    I am not saying that I can play at his level (a 5 to 7 counts process)
    but my SCORE should be at least on par with Hi-Opt II and probably higher.

    Bottom line is that, like Tarzan, I will deviate more often from basic strategy than a typical HiLo player.
    The 88vT situation is just one example.

    So 88vT at TC0 with a ratio of 789/Tens lower than 25% will probably happen more often than TC+11

    I hope you can find a proper answer to this specific situation even if it doesn't correspond to your approach.

    Thanks.

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat View Post

    I do count the aces. Basically it's a 4-count approach. HiLo/A/789/Tens
    Thanks.
    If you could articulate your criteria I may be able to help.

    I could in theory generate every possible random shoe composition for a given number of cards remaining dealt from a given number of decks. My website isn't very organized but I do have a page that shows the number of random compositions for 1 or 2 decks
    http://www.bjstrat.net/numSubsets_1_2.html.

    I could theoretically display every subset for any given decks/cards remaining.

    The greatest number of possible subsets occurs at mid-shoe. For single deck with 26 cards remaining there are 1868755 random compositions. For 2 decks with 52 cards remaining there are 375268773. I have a text file that list all 1868755 26 card
    single deck compositions and their probabilities. At one point I tried displaying this on my website but there was too much data, so I gave up.

    Placing conditions on what is displayed can reduce amount of data. For example out of the 1868755 26 card compositions for single deck there are 112695 with HiLo running count 0 and the sum of their probabilities is 0.124165.

    If you can articulate your conditions I may be able to display them for you, probably for no more than 2 decks. This would only show the probability of your condition, not strategy gain or loss.

    Here is a sample of 3 cards remaining dealt from a single deck. There are 220 compositions. First number is a reference number (1-220). Next 10 comma separated numbers are number of each rank (2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,T,A). Last number (preceded by comma) is probability of composition (0.xxxxxxx). The sum of these probabilities is 1. There are no filtering conditions.

    Code:
    1 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3,0,0.0253394
    2 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,2,0,0.0217195
    3 0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,2,0,0.0217195
    4 0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,2,0,0.0217195
    5 0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,2,0,0.0217195
    6 0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,2,0,0.0217195
    7 0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,2,0,0.0217195
    8 0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,0,0.0217195
    9 1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,0,0.0217195
    10 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,0.0217195
    11 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,0,0.00434389
    12 0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,1,0,0.0115837
    13 0,0,0,0,0,1,0,1,1,0,0.0115837
    14 0,0,0,0,1,0,0,1,1,0,0.0115837
    15 0,0,0,1,0,0,0,1,1,0,0.0115837
    16 0,0,1,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0.0115837
    17 0,1,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0.0115837
    18 1,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0.0115837
    19 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,1,0.0115837
    20 0,0,0,0,0,0,2,0,1,0,0.00434389
    21 0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,1,0,0.0115837
    22 0,0,0,0,1,0,1,0,1,0,0.0115837
    23 0,0,0,1,0,0,1,0,1,0,0.0115837
    24 0,0,1,0,0,0,1,0,1,0,0.0115837
    25 0,1,0,0,0,0,1,0,1,0,0.0115837
    26 1,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,1,0,0.0115837
    27 0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,1,1,0.0115837
    28 0,0,0,0,0,2,0,0,1,0,0.00434389
    29 0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,1,0,0.0115837
    30 0,0,0,1,0,1,0,0,1,0,0.0115837
    31 0,0,1,0,0,1,0,0,1,0,0.0115837
    32 0,1,0,0,0,1,0,0,1,0,0.0115837
    33 1,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,1,0,0.0115837
    34 0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,1,1,0.0115837
    35 0,0,0,0,2,0,0,0,1,0,0.00434389
    36 0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,1,0,0.0115837
    37 0,0,1,0,1,0,0,0,1,0,0.0115837
    38 0,1,0,0,1,0,0,0,1,0,0.0115837
    39 1,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,1,0,0.0115837
    40 0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,1,1,0.0115837
    41 0,0,0,2,0,0,0,0,1,0,0.00434389
    42 0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,1,0,0.0115837
    43 0,1,0,1,0,0,0,0,1,0,0.0115837
    44 1,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,1,0,0.0115837
    45 0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,1,1,0.0115837
    46 0,0,2,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0.00434389
    47 0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0.0115837
    48 1,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0.0115837
    49 0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0.0115837
    50 0,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0.00434389
    51 1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0.0115837
    52 0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0.0115837
    53 2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0.00434389
    54 1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0.0115837
    55 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,2,0.00434389
    56 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3,0,0,0.000180995
    57 0,0,0,0,0,0,1,2,0,0,0.00108597
    58 0,0,0,0,0,1,0,2,0,0,0.00108597
    59 0,0,0,0,1,0,0,2,0,0,0.00108597
    60 0,0,0,1,0,0,0,2,0,0,0.00108597
    61 0,0,1,0,0,0,0,2,0,0,0.00108597
    62 0,1,0,0,0,0,0,2,0,0,0.00108597
    63 1,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,0,0,0.00108597
    64 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,0,1,0.00108597
    65 0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,0,0,0.00108597
    66 0,0,0,0,0,1,1,1,0,0,0.00289593
    67 0,0,0,0,1,0,1,1,0,0,0.00289593
    68 0,0,0,1,0,0,1,1,0,0,0.00289593
    69 0,0,1,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0.00289593
    70 0,1,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0.00289593
    71 1,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0.00289593
    72 0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,1,0.00289593
    73 0,0,0,0,0,2,0,1,0,0,0.00108597
    74 0,0,0,0,1,1,0,1,0,0,0.00289593
    75 0,0,0,1,0,1,0,1,0,0,0.00289593
    76 0,0,1,0,0,1,0,1,0,0,0.00289593
    77 0,1,0,0,0,1,0,1,0,0,0.00289593
    78 1,0,0,0,0,1,0,1,0,0,0.00289593
    79 0,0,0,0,0,1,0,1,0,1,0.00289593
    80 0,0,0,0,2,0,0,1,0,0,0.00108597
    81 0,0,0,1,1,0,0,1,0,0,0.00289593
    82 0,0,1,0,1,0,0,1,0,0,0.00289593
    83 0,1,0,0,1,0,0,1,0,0,0.00289593
    84 1,0,0,0,1,0,0,1,0,0,0.00289593
    85 0,0,0,0,1,0,0,1,0,1,0.00289593
    86 0,0,0,2,0,0,0,1,0,0,0.00108597
    87 0,0,1,1,0,0,0,1,0,0,0.00289593
    88 0,1,0,1,0,0,0,1,0,0,0.00289593
    89 1,0,0,1,0,0,0,1,0,0,0.00289593
    90 0,0,0,1,0,0,0,1,0,1,0.00289593
    91 0,0,2,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0.00108597
    92 0,1,1,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0.00289593
    93 1,0,1,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0.00289593
    94 0,0,1,0,0,0,0,1,0,1,0.00289593
    95 0,2,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0.00108597
    96 1,1,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0.00289593
    97 0,1,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,1,0.00289593
    98 2,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0.00108597
    99 1,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,1,0.00289593
    100 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,2,0.00108597
    101 0,0,0,0,0,0,3,0,0,0,0.000180995
    102 0,0,0,0,0,1,2,0,0,0,0.00108597
    103 0,0,0,0,1,0,2,0,0,0,0.00108597
    104 0,0,0,1,0,0,2,0,0,0,0.00108597
    105 0,0,1,0,0,0,2,0,0,0,0.00108597
    106 0,1,0,0,0,0,2,0,0,0,0.00108597
    107 1,0,0,0,0,0,2,0,0,0,0.00108597
    108 0,0,0,0,0,0,2,0,0,1,0.00108597
    109 0,0,0,0,0,2,1,0,0,0,0.00108597
    110 0,0,0,0,1,1,1,0,0,0,0.00289593
    111 0,0,0,1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0.00289593
    112 0,0,1,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0.00289593
    113 0,1,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0.00289593
    114 1,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0.00289593
    115 0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,1,0.00289593
    116 0,0,0,0,2,0,1,0,0,0,0.00108597
    117 0,0,0,1,1,0,1,0,0,0,0.00289593
    118 0,0,1,0,1,0,1,0,0,0,0.00289593
    119 0,1,0,0,1,0,1,0,0,0,0.00289593
    120 1,0,0,0,1,0,1,0,0,0,0.00289593
    121 0,0,0,0,1,0,1,0,0,1,0.00289593
    122 0,0,0,2,0,0,1,0,0,0,0.00108597
    123 0,0,1,1,0,0,1,0,0,0,0.00289593
    124 0,1,0,1,0,0,1,0,0,0,0.00289593
    125 1,0,0,1,0,0,1,0,0,0,0.00289593
    126 0,0,0,1,0,0,1,0,0,1,0.00289593
    127 0,0,2,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0.00108597
    128 0,1,1,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0.00289593
    129 1,0,1,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0.00289593
    130 0,0,1,0,0,0,1,0,0,1,0.00289593
    131 0,2,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0.00108597
    132 1,1,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0.00289593
    133 0,1,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,1,0.00289593
    134 2,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0.00108597
    135 1,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,1,0.00289593
    136 0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,2,0.00108597
    137 0,0,0,0,0,3,0,0,0,0,0.000180995
    138 0,0,0,0,1,2,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    139 0,0,0,1,0,2,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    140 0,0,1,0,0,2,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    141 0,1,0,0,0,2,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    142 1,0,0,0,0,2,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    143 0,0,0,0,0,2,0,0,0,1,0.00108597
    144 0,0,0,0,2,1,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    145 0,0,0,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.00289593
    146 0,0,1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.00289593
    147 0,1,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.00289593
    148 1,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.00289593
    149 0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,1,0.00289593
    150 0,0,0,2,0,1,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    151 0,0,1,1,0,1,0,0,0,0,0.00289593
    152 0,1,0,1,0,1,0,0,0,0,0.00289593
    153 1,0,0,1,0,1,0,0,0,0,0.00289593
    154 0,0,0,1,0,1,0,0,0,1,0.00289593
    155 0,0,2,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    156 0,1,1,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0.00289593
    157 1,0,1,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0.00289593
    158 0,0,1,0,0,1,0,0,0,1,0.00289593
    159 0,2,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    160 1,1,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0.00289593
    161 0,1,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,1,0.00289593
    162 2,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    163 1,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,1,0.00289593
    164 0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,2,0.00108597
    165 0,0,0,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0.000180995
    166 0,0,0,1,2,0,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    167 0,0,1,0,2,0,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    168 0,1,0,0,2,0,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    169 1,0,0,0,2,0,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    170 0,0,0,0,2,0,0,0,0,1,0.00108597
    171 0,0,0,2,1,0,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    172 0,0,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0.00289593
    173 0,1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0.00289593
    174 1,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0.00289593
    175 0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,1,0.00289593
    176 0,0,2,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    177 0,1,1,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0.00289593
    178 1,0,1,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0.00289593
    179 0,0,1,0,1,0,0,0,0,1,0.00289593
    180 0,2,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    181 1,1,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0.00289593
    182 0,1,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,1,0.00289593
    183 2,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    184 1,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,1,0.00289593
    185 0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,2,0.00108597
    186 0,0,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.000180995
    187 0,0,1,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    188 0,1,0,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    189 1,0,0,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    190 0,0,0,2,0,0,0,0,0,1,0.00108597
    191 0,0,2,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    192 0,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.00289593
    193 1,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.00289593
    194 0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,1,0.00289593
    195 0,2,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    196 1,1,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.00289593
    197 0,1,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,1,0.00289593
    198 2,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    199 1,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,1,0.00289593
    200 0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,2,0.00108597
    201 0,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.000180995
    202 0,1,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    203 1,0,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    204 0,0,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0.00108597
    205 0,2,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    206 1,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.00289593
    207 0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0.00289593
    208 2,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    209 1,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0.00289593
    210 0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,0.00108597
    211 0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.000180995
    212 1,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    213 0,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0.00108597
    214 2,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.00108597
    215 1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0.00289593
    216 0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,0.00108597
    217 3,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.000180995
    218 2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0.00108597
    219 1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,0.00108597
    220 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3,0.000180995
    k_c

  9. #22


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Thanks KC. I understand better your process and the nature of the task. Post 16 showed a 66-cards deck compo with a specific hand of 88v10 (66666/222/24/6) with me asking Cac how often we would see 88vT at DD with a 789/tens ratio of 25% or less with a least two 8s among the six neutral cards. That would be rare but would it happen more often than TC+11? That was a question about a specific hand in a specific condition.

    Now in a more general way in order to elaborate the frequency of conditions, let’s do it at the 52-card depth (or as close as possible) of a double deck game. You eloquently showed that it’s way more reasonable for the task at hand.

    At TC0 (see table below). the only variable is the group of 789s (3 cards at a time) but it doesn’t necessarily add up to 52 cards exactly depending on if there is a shortage or surplus of 789s. So deck compos vary from 43 to 64 cards at TC0. The number of cards would change even more if we do the range from TC-6 to TC+6.

    So here what would be the conditions at TC0. Add/substract one ten per TC from TC-6 to TC+6.

    Is this workable and how do you establish the frequency of specific hands such as 88vT from this?

    2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T A Cards RC 789/T DECKS
    4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 16 4 52 0 0.750 1.00
    4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 16 4 49 0 0.563 0.94
    4 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 16 4 46 0 0.375 0.88
    4 4 4 4 4 1 1 1 16 4 43 0 0.188 0.83
    4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 16 4 55 0 0.938 1.06
    4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 16 4 58 0 1.125 1.12
    4 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 16 4 61 0 1.313 1.17
    4 4 4 4 4 8 8 8 16 4 64 0 1.500 1.23
    Last edited by Secretariat; 10-13-2022 at 08:06 PM.

  10. #23


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Secretariat:

    This is my analysis for 1D and 2D up to 75% penetration, that is 39/52 and 78/104. The counting system used was Hi-Lo.
    All subsets were analyzed up to the predetermined penetration and all possible TCs and their respective frequencies were calculated.
    Within each TC, the frequencies of three different ratios (789/T) were analyzed. Each, in turn, was divided into two columns:

    Column 1:

    1) ratios <= 0.25
    2) 0.25 < ratios <= 0.50
    3) 0.50 < ratios <= 0.75

    Column 2:

    Within each ratio, it was also calculated how much each represents within each TC.

    1) Single Deck

    Code:
    +------+-----------------+---------------------------------+---------------------------------+---------------------------------+
    |  TC  |    Probability  |          Ratio <= 0.25          |       0.25 < Ratio <= 0.50      |       0.50 < Ratio <= 0.75      |
    +------+-----------------+---------------------------------+---------------------------------+---------------------------------+
    |   52 |  0.000000000664 |  0.000000000664  1.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   49 |  0.000000000009 |  0.000000000009  1.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   48 |  0.000000016673 |  0.000000016673  1.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   47 |  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  1.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   46 |  0.000000000235 |  0.000000000235  1.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   45 |  0.000000042115 |  0.000000042115  1.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   44 |  0.000000143051 |  0.000000143051  1.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   43 |  0.000000003198 |  0.000000002621  0.819445586225 |  0.000000000577  0.180554413775 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   42 |  0.000000079645 |  0.000000035082  0.440482404036 |  0.000000044563  0.559517595964 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   41 |  0.000000270618 |  0.000000111276  0.411191532531 |  0.000000159342  0.588808467469 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   40 |  0.000000998393 |  0.000000451163  0.451888974579 |  0.000000547230  0.548111025421 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   39 |  0.000000542369 |  0.000000340221  0.627286614431 |  0.000000202148  0.372713385569 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   38 |  0.000001548535 |  0.000001055862  0.681845331259 |  0.000000460273  0.297231205664 |  0.000000032401  0.020923463076 |
    |   37 |  0.000005058793 |  0.000003400194  0.672135547629 |  0.000001266830  0.250421473882 |  0.000000391768  0.077442978489 |
    |   36 |  0.000000672005 |  0.000000156841  0.233392085988 |  0.000000455853  0.678348217464 |  0.000000059311  0.088259696548 |
    |   35 |  0.000002371404 |  0.000000529051  0.223095958199 |  0.000001561772  0.658585387607 |  0.000000280581  0.118318654194 |
    |   34 |  0.000007611767 |  0.000001975282  0.259503720428 |  0.000004762362  0.625657905270 |  0.000000837834  0.110070912378 |
    |   33 |  0.000022470099 |  0.000006856023  0.305117618298 |  0.000013481505  0.599975344792 |  0.000001700129  0.075661848507 |
    |   32 |  0.000010091052 |  0.000004437261  0.439722378167 |  0.000004784040  0.474087329109 |  0.000000728286  0.072171511826 |
    |   31 |  0.000029171857 |  0.000012831762  0.439867852984 |  0.000011473152  0.393295232694 |  0.000004237797  0.145270026987 |
    |   30 |  0.000015461288 |  0.000002458850  0.159032662002 |  0.000009523446  0.615954249631 |  0.000003286625  0.212571228873 |
    |   29 |  0.000093418921 |  0.000031296974  0.335017508063 |  0.000037815971  0.404799906800 |  0.000021486318  0.229999635652 |
    |   28 |  0.000019924117 |  0.000004704920  0.236141949302 |  0.000011860267  0.595271907781 |  0.000002930714  0.147093792988 |
    |   27 |  0.000129708145 |  0.000027150456  0.209319590188 |  0.000075217044  0.579894529747 |  0.000021331596  0.164458415830 |
    |   26 |  0.000315660493 |  0.000074158663  0.234931722142 |  0.000168264841  0.533056384683 |  0.000049611560  0.157167467474 |
    |   25 |  0.000000616073 |  0.000000005843  0.009484683209 |  0.000000423890  0.688050834502 |  0.000000175373  0.284662439371 |
    |   24 |  0.000353589521 |  0.000081020636  0.229137548019 |  0.000149714313  0.423412754875 |  0.000100808202  0.285099517581 |
    |   23 |  0.000177805244 |  0.000030736020  0.172863407601 |  0.000094912073  0.533797943111 |  0.000040049301  0.225242521194 |
    |   22 |  0.000682357135 |  0.000114742086  0.168155471621 |  0.000293070089  0.429496629125 |  0.000204740598  0.300049032381 |
    |   21 |  0.000416739404 |  0.000072068434  0.172934051639 |  0.000195198212  0.468393941542 |  0.000109816881  0.263514513065 |
    |   20 |  0.000881599564 |  0.000097696068  0.110816828636 |  0.000460005156  0.521784691011 |  0.000225691771  0.256002589403 |
    |   19 |  0.000910037799 |  0.000167485632  0.184042500369 |  0.000368533805  0.404965381838 |  0.000268981597  0.295571895553 |
    |   18 |  0.001910374915 |  0.000211284890  0.110598651662 |  0.000930908379  0.487290935510 |  0.000480403299  0.251470690781 |
    |   17 |  0.001809689511 |  0.000263364911  0.145530440213 |  0.000661094014  0.365307977134 |  0.000623884960  0.344746961441 |
    |   16 |  0.002046837880 |  0.000129422794  0.063230603057 |  0.000955063253  0.466604249565 |  0.000621924876  0.303846671011 |
    |   15 |  0.002223757171 |  0.000268767122  0.120861722588 |  0.000839714904  0.377610880997 |  0.000777417010  0.349596178924 |
    |   14 |  0.004273385492 |  0.000221674151  0.051873193084 |  0.001693499914  0.396289994613 |  0.001540253655  0.360429373392 |
    |   13 |  0.006754910124 |  0.000566277861  0.083832034910 |  0.002430554441  0.359820396744 |  0.002366928584  0.350401195672 |
    |   12 |  0.004287524116 |  0.000224054560  0.052257329302 |  0.001715986854  0.400227918839 |  0.001448329697  0.337800944870 |
    |   11 |  0.007545408185 |  0.000638647581  0.084640560907 |  0.002389478290  0.316679791444 |  0.002900406384  0.384393569254 |
    |   10 |  0.010286781948 |  0.000421425052  0.040967627589 |  0.003383401399  0.328907661917 |  0.003972450319  0.386170362993 |
    |    9 |  0.012616971866 |  0.000579707897  0.045946674336 |  0.003726324514  0.295342222615 |  0.005112762203  0.405228945391 |
    |    8 |  0.014641456886 |  0.000462164998  0.031565506212 |  0.003952561390  0.269956836980 |  0.006496780382  0.443724994918 |
    |    7 |  0.018900523261 |  0.000398150274  0.021065568841 |  0.005083720437  0.268972470564 |  0.007977766476  0.422092360396 |
    |    6 |  0.027868413882 |  0.000850381557  0.030514171382 |  0.006986084360  0.250681089697 |  0.011552725645  0.414545502812 |
    |    5 |  0.028993410471 |  0.000628467895  0.021676232116 |  0.005385488200  0.185748696416 |  0.013903497504  0.479539911953 |
    |    4 |  0.038536406680 |  0.000409063290  0.010614982696 |  0.006362929971  0.165114771176 |  0.020507950150  0.532170794245 |
    |    3 |  0.052524728761 |  0.001082918537  0.020617308496 |  0.007744213737  0.147439385586 |  0.025515570410  0.485782049933 |
    |    2 |  0.075565383662 |  0.000895143349  0.011845944607 |  0.008563775623  0.113329347485 |  0.040414512138  0.534828385433 |
    |    1 |  0.098316857699 |  0.000127818714  0.001300069151 |  0.006312589583  0.064206584006 |  0.057893809655  0.588849267660 |
    |    0 |  0.173638334617 |  0.001597615381  0.009200821836 |  0.014764047487  0.085027580572 |  0.089617667926  0.516116836319 |
    |   -2 |  0.101351781972 |  0.000094272420  0.000930150596 |  0.004639574184  0.045776937456 |  0.040613847141  0.400721589214 |
    |   -3 |  0.072530459389 |  0.000626131061  0.008632663654 |  0.005308150956  0.073185128029 |  0.022115150712  0.304908460507 |
    |   -4 |  0.057227968852 |  0.000945171169  0.016515895780 |  0.004666664266  0.081545166811 |  0.015508039958  0.270987076237 |
    |   -5 |  0.033833166588 |  0.000215020046  0.006355303609 |  0.002556400309  0.075559002212 |  0.008278820238  0.244695400194 |
    |   -6 |  0.031060137217 |  0.000187254532  0.006028773496 |  0.002587499616  0.083306123148 |  0.007552175849  0.243146892616 |
    |   -7 |  0.025801687136 |  0.000620431750  0.024046169815 |  0.002071499885  0.080285443104 |  0.006042261018  0.234180849751 |
    |   -8 |  0.020730459196 |  0.000198464334  0.009573561876 |  0.002303000244  0.111092582293 |  0.003669829287  0.177025952598 |
    |   -9 |  0.012811520951 |  0.000139306121  0.010873503763 |  0.000931830887  0.072733822226 |  0.002515886338  0.196376866401 |
    |  -10 |  0.013568393226 |  0.000256436560  0.018899552465 |  0.001218831577  0.089828733306 |  0.002387878426  0.175988297647 |
    |  -11 |  0.009335360588 |  0.000107397492  0.011504375370 |  0.001049418391  0.112413267962 |  0.001350858693  0.144703429519 |
    |  -12 |  0.008114786524 |  0.000286215698  0.035270884432 |  0.000604336538  0.074473498050 |  0.001149948378  0.141710243996 |
    |  -13 |  0.007022003107 |  0.000141757357  0.020187595269 |  0.000567981241  0.080885928463 |  0.001206053760  0.171753521309 |
    |  -14 |  0.003742574672 |  0.000143620998  0.038374918589 |  0.000264218949  0.070598177036 |  0.000429794833  0.114839347364 |
    |  -15 |  0.003981863613 |  0.000092925596  0.023337212231 |  0.000301351849  0.075681107694 |  0.000790265163  0.198466155591 |
    |  -16 |  0.002361297217 |  0.000010753992  0.004554272797 |  0.000273613377  0.115874179476 |  0.000126686170  0.053651090359 |
    |  -17 |  0.001909297834 |  0.000086240887  0.045168902316 |  0.000045648779  0.023908673484 |  0.000371699274  0.194678518803 |
    |  -18 |  0.001867628348 |  0.000019915001  0.010663257020 |  0.000225954927  0.120984952426 |  0.000184636405  0.098861427653 |
    |  -19 |  0.001852436078 |  0.000088664460  0.047863708194 |  0.000111185117  0.060021027551 |  0.000175193873  0.094574854957 |
    |  -20 |  0.000931739716 |  0.000010000255  0.010732884524 |  0.000090161521  0.096766853503 |  0.000111240242  0.119389825261 |
    |  -21 |  0.000859897646 |  0.000034059002  0.039608204294 |  0.000056443106  0.065639331024 |  0.000045850028  0.053320332348 |
    |  -22 |  0.000423914934 |  0.000006576832  0.015514507799 |  0.000025683382  0.060586170394 |  0.000056032864  0.132179501189 |
    |  -23 |  0.000675181605 |  0.000022283300  0.033003416322 |  0.000018904728  0.027999471822 |  0.000094071554  0.139327780047 |
    |  -24 |  0.000179881837 |  0.000001873557  0.010415487127 |  0.000010629371  0.059090852387 |  0.000018650699  0.103683055930 |
    |  -25 |  0.000351512928 |  0.000008368538  0.023807197433 |  0.000008723157  0.024816035847 |  0.000045234775  0.128685948825 |
    |  -26 |  0.000316150226 |  0.000002641104  0.008353952589 |  0.000036100532  0.114187905269 |  0.000017155120  0.054262559130 |
    |  -27 |  0.000000126340 |  0.000000000023  0.000185634392 |  0.000000000002  0.000012035636 |  0.000000002752  0.021781101946 |
    |  -28 |  0.000129819473 |  0.000000744645  0.005736005958 |  0.000012716920  0.097958494936 |  0.000005889582  0.045367473493 |
    |  -29 |  0.000019812788 |  0.000000185000  0.009337423528 |  0.000000167800  0.008469295239 |  0.000001816974  0.091707155004 |
    |  -30 |  0.000093438884 |  0.000002780171  0.029753898476 |  0.000003922752  0.041982005832 |  0.000000016745  0.000179212515 |
    |  -31 |  0.000015441324 |  0.000000027597  0.001787197075 |  0.000001135570  0.073540948993 |  0.000000482753  0.031263687265 |
    |  -32 |  0.000029174782 |  0.000000823862  0.028238832515 |  0.000000291289  0.009984287696 |  0.000000116783  0.004002863012 |
    |  -33 |  0.000010088127 |  0.000000218652  0.021674195240 |  0.000000065015  0.006444668517 |  0.000000023915  0.002370652460 |
    |  -34 |  0.000022470436 |  0.000000051541  0.002293737588 |  0.000003518083  0.156564978784 |  0.000000004504  0.000200429903 |
    |  -35 |  0.000007611430 |  0.000000010583  0.001390466111 |  0.000001039794  0.136609589007 |  0.000000000044  0.000005840220 |
    |  -36 |  0.000002371433 |  0.000000001848  0.000779342954 |  0.000000276421  0.116562923912 |  0.000000000002  0.000000836829 |
    |  -37 |  0.000000671976 |  0.000000000264  0.000392204586 |  0.000000065232  0.097074756634 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |  -38 |  0.000005058794 |  0.000000336001  0.066419226049 |  0.000000013415  0.002651867791 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |  -39 |  0.000001981606 |  0.000000099258  0.050089751544 |  0.000000002677  0.001350832202 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |  -40 |  0.000000109296 |  0.000000003333  0.030496132408 |  0.000000000037  0.000334321104 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |  -41 |  0.000000998393 |  0.000000000536  0.000536540992 |  0.000000000003  0.000002838845 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |  -42 |  0.000000270618 |  0.000000000078  0.000286565923 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |  -43 |  0.000000079645 |  0.000000000001  0.000006389748 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |  -44 |  0.000000003198 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |  -45 |  0.000000143051 |  0.000000017978  0.125677862694 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |  -46 |  0.000000042115 |  0.000000004253  0.100978499619 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |  -47 |  0.000000000235 |  0.000000000012  0.051255629573 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |  -48 |  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.011537030145 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |  -49 |  0.000000016673 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |  -50 |  0.000000000009 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |  -52 |  0.000000000664 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    +------+-----------------+---------------------------------+---------------------------------+---------------------------------+
    1) Double Deck

    Code:
    +------+-----------------+---------------------------------+---------------------------------+---------------------------------+
    |  TC  |    Probability  |          Ratio <= 0.25          |       0.25 < Ratio <= 0.50      |       0.50 < Ratio <= 0.75      |
    +------+-----------------+---------------------------------+---------------------------------+---------------------------------+
    |   52 |  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  1.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   50 |  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  1.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   49 |  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  1.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   48 |  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  1.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   47 |  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  1.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   46 |  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  1.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   45 |  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  1.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   44 |  0.000000000004 |  0.000000000004  0.997239636658 |  0.000000000000  0.002760363342 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   43 |  0.000000000002 |  0.000000000002  0.775007534328 |  0.000000000001  0.224992465672 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   42 |  0.000000000033 |  0.000000000022  0.663302546401 |  0.000000000011  0.336697453599 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   41 |  0.000000000017 |  0.000000000013  0.741689759821 |  0.000000000004  0.258310240179 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   40 |  0.000000000224 |  0.000000000172  0.764988257021 |  0.000000000053  0.235011742979 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |   39 |  0.000000000399 |  0.000000000176  0.440505913909 |  0.000000000223  0.559278286101 |  0.000000000000  0.000215799990 |
    |   38 |  0.000000001099 |  0.000000000490  0.446137221401 |  0.000000000606  0.551614609857 |  0.000000000002  0.002248168742 |
    |   37 |  0.000000001949 |  0.000000001105  0.567028948154 |  0.000000000814  0.417632122878 |  0.000000000030  0.015338928968 |
    |   36 |  0.000000005389 |  0.000000002761  0.512325773670 |  0.000000002498  0.463425058428 |  0.000000000131  0.024249167902 |
    |   35 |  0.000000009849 |  0.000000002906  0.295074712293 |  0.000000006723  0.682672609623 |  0.000000000219  0.022237255179 |
    |   34 |  0.000000032190 |  0.000000011138  0.346025105278 |  0.000000019809  0.615401244633 |  0.000000001232  0.038265105988 |
    |   33 |  0.000000031776 |  0.000000011925  0.375281625056 |  0.000000017698  0.556965636979 |  0.000000002113  0.066487892166 |
    |   32 |  0.000000122906 |  0.000000036052  0.293332676609 |  0.000000077850  0.633412827843 |  0.000000008783  0.071462664184 |
    |   31 |  0.000000158775 |  0.000000038442  0.242117403540 |  0.000000107492  0.677010524568 |  0.000000012523  0.078870319821 |
    |   30 |  0.000000433868 |  0.000000102045  0.235197810993 |  0.000000283542  0.653520645586 |  0.000000046687  0.107606772177 |
    |   29 |  0.000000566365 |  0.000000123463  0.217992538857 |  0.000000367516  0.648903814121 |  0.000000071797  0.126767578946 |
    |   28 |  0.000001385428 |  0.000000260195  0.187808391118 |  0.000000923274  0.666417847964 |  0.000000190136  0.137239794581 |
    |   27 |  0.000001641055 |  0.000000277036  0.168815931501 |  0.000001084193  0.660668093526 |  0.000000264549  0.161206358986 |
    |   26 |  0.000008422364 |  0.000001308277  0.155333727606 |  0.000005351530  0.635395280458 |  0.000001623337  0.192741312084 |
    |   25 |  0.000010203587 |  0.000001214350  0.119012106156 |  0.000006659277  0.652640750000 |  0.000002092865  0.205110668283 |
    |   24 |  0.000011862547 |  0.000001489724  0.125582129683 |  0.000007146272  0.602423064592 |  0.000002924345  0.246519119727 |
    |   23 |  0.000026158219 |  0.000003260565  0.124647809069 |  0.000014952304  0.571610161214 |  0.000007046065  0.269363337633 |
    |   22 |  0.000034651452 |  0.000002788778  0.080480835826 |  0.000021431017  0.618473840029 |  0.000009130875  0.263506264441 |
    |   21 |  0.000069673511 |  0.000005207433  0.074740504579 |  0.000041527944  0.596036327146 |  0.000019656615  0.282124646430 |
    |   20 |  0.000089702667 |  0.000007439167  0.082931395106 |  0.000048204402  0.537379813171 |  0.000029376998  0.327493025993 |
    |   19 |  0.000174982987 |  0.000014379279  0.082175299021 |  0.000088980395  0.508508834103 |  0.000059905415  0.342349939480 |
    |   18 |  0.000179608240 |  0.000008633239  0.048067056761 |  0.000096122405  0.535178147952 |  0.000061686253  0.343448905401 |
    |   17 |  0.000387560120 |  0.000019122681  0.049341199579 |  0.000194875834  0.502827364026 |  0.000139179104  0.359116163463 |
    |   16 |  0.000580667862 |  0.000027349022  0.047099252077 |  0.000270667322  0.466131053875 |  0.000226506697  0.390079616223 |
    |   15 |  0.000817258634 |  0.000040020473  0.048969164813 |  0.000351997816  0.430705533825 |  0.000333020034  0.407484265418 |
    |   14 |  0.001112359132 |  0.000037634558  0.033833100052 |  0.000463696120  0.416858284823 |  0.000474599453  0.426660274833 |
    |   13 |  0.002210715002 |  0.000069944716  0.031638956715 |  0.000875868358  0.396192343780 |  0.000944256943  0.427127396366 |
    |   12 |  0.002061321482 |  0.000048208228  0.023387049485 |  0.000743459738  0.360671416183 |  0.000959592330  0.465522888482 |
    |   11 |  0.003698825450 |  0.000085370120  0.023080332213 |  0.001282028193  0.346604134268 |  0.001682083511  0.454761527339 |
    |   10 |  0.004747368409 |  0.000087817795  0.018498205218 |  0.001465819710  0.308764684694 |  0.002331571101  0.491129168815 |
    |    9 |  0.006902876047 |  0.000107032444  0.015505485417 |  0.001939465848  0.280964895620 |  0.003450319286  0.499837931686 |
    |    8 |  0.009864559724 |  0.000112287780  0.011382949019 |  0.002494221142  0.252846676591 |  0.005114762965  0.518498859331 |
    |    7 |  0.013788715683 |  0.000157699929  0.011436883091 |  0.003116164101  0.225993788886 |  0.007158142643  0.519130483782 |
    |    6 |  0.018082851676 |  0.000108147163  0.005980647562 |  0.003411565179  0.188663007378 |  0.010013249695  0.553742842935 |
    |    5 |  0.027286425722 |  0.000189715005  0.006952724670 |  0.004458493532  0.163396026207 |  0.014977180422  0.548887588817 |
    |    4 |  0.035805426803 |  0.000111044034  0.003101318551 |  0.004357719843  0.121705569013 |  0.020899449224  0.583695017498 |
    |    3 |  0.051405396461 |  0.000199703050  0.003884865477 |  0.005379455403  0.104647678522 |  0.029137907340  0.566825846037 |
    |    2 |  0.069004460823 |  0.000073492621  0.001065041602 |  0.004463927841  0.064690424176 |  0.041148071580  0.596310312245 |
    |    1 |  0.113333602550 |  0.000235872065  0.002081219157 |  0.006156096868  0.054318372744 |  0.065118899866  0.574577163356 |
    |    0 |  0.200128106169 |  0.000196408615  0.000981414449 |  0.006715965775  0.033558333727 |  0.112466834836  0.561974212365 |
    |   -1 |  0.077579012427 |  0.000001859752  0.000023972356 |  0.001045493511  0.013476499359 |  0.034690971048  0.447169536740 |
    |   -2 |  0.114232001076 |  0.000177477839  0.001553661294 |  0.004383735761  0.038375724141 |  0.041451110360  0.362867760083 |
    |   -3 |  0.067909151401 |  0.000042944782  0.000632385791 |  0.002249423398  0.033124009825 |  0.022068959903  0.324977701055 |
    |   -4 |  0.053310202931 |  0.000099804976  0.001872155250 |  0.002515516390  0.047186396821 |  0.015673275400  0.294001420716 |
    |   -5 |  0.033605045277 |  0.000042123082  0.001253474946 |  0.001394777026  0.041504988738 |  0.008861641279  0.263699727413 |
    |   -6 |  0.027231417285 |  0.000080511881  0.002956580647 |  0.001448623614  0.053196776318 |  0.006740502251  0.247526677768 |
    |   -7 |  0.017863451835 |  0.000034237312  0.001916612302 |  0.000848878515  0.047520407750 |  0.004055425847  0.227023639332 |
    |   -8 |  0.014234528319 |  0.000039304334  0.002761196776 |  0.000751001759  0.052759160117 |  0.003037511292  0.213390371920 |
    |   -9 |  0.009232425873 |  0.000024697147  0.002675044170 |  0.000475935435  0.051550420430 |  0.001783913925  0.193222664252 |
    |  -10 |  0.006845385420 |  0.000024914702  0.003639634704 |  0.000340331010  0.049716851414 |  0.001271206135  0.185702638645 |
    |  -11 |  0.004707590464 |  0.000011278055  0.002395717165 |  0.000223123239  0.047396484691 |  0.000805704058  0.171149989360 |
    |  -12 |  0.003815907270 |  0.000016830287  0.004410559653 |  0.000207591461  0.054401599901 |  0.000612670871  0.160557064825 |
    |  -13 |  0.002690671221 |  0.000009383219  0.003487315428 |  0.000130700101  0.048575277370 |  0.000409653180  0.152249437449 |
    |  -14 |  0.001416079361 |  0.000007141066  0.005042842779 |  0.000057699160  0.040745711037 |  0.000203139410  0.143451995698 |
    |  -15 |  0.001107898619 |  0.000003928524  0.003545923708 |  0.000045935378  0.041461715737 |  0.000149456305  0.134900704798 |
    |  -16 |  0.000840764529 |  0.000002982463  0.003547322576 |  0.000041552402  0.049422164060 |  0.000094510782  0.112410524462 |
    |  -17 |  0.000553880487 |  0.000002329723  0.004206183093 |  0.000023733269  0.042849078875 |  0.000059374708  0.107197688921 |
    |  -18 |  0.000387094877 |  0.000001597328  0.004126450977 |  0.000014175268  0.036619622229 |  0.000042363644  0.109439950216 |
    |  -19 |  0.000179414613 |  0.000000596968  0.003327308662 |  0.000004603309  0.025657380215 |  0.000018459316  0.102886357146 |
    |  -20 |  0.000177714578 |  0.000000761095  0.004282683122 |  0.000007596672  0.042746478433 |  0.000013546763  0.076227643074 |
    |  -21 |  0.000086867757 |  0.000000308866  0.003555590698 |  0.000003295329  0.037935009140 |  0.000005743748  0.066120598222 |
    |  -22 |  0.000069664028 |  0.000000142007  0.002038460441 |  0.000002538025  0.036432359254 |  0.000004228240  0.060694731781 |
    |  -23 |  0.000034648420 |  0.000000053412  0.001541534893 |  0.000001074380  0.031008061292 |  0.000001849246  0.053371731657 |
    |  -24 |  0.000026331339 |  0.000000130814  0.004968014610 |  0.000000784469  0.029792215691 |  0.000001869783  0.071009781751 |
    |  -25 |  0.000011688273 |  0.000000048679  0.004164801861 |  0.000000307609  0.026317715622 |  0.000000746258  0.063846734775 |
    |  -26 |  0.000014731638 |  0.000000030217  0.002051130775 |  0.000000506703  0.034395564348 |  0.000000429284  0.029140262098 |
    |  -27 |  0.000003894234 |  0.000000025451  0.006535675272 |  0.000000051588  0.013247152314 |  0.000000297450  0.076382183043 |
    |  -28 |  0.000001646839 |  0.000000008721  0.005295822006 |  0.000000017592  0.010682023439 |  0.000000111920  0.067960430187 |
    |  -29 |  0.000001379640 |  0.000000003837  0.002780969959 |  0.000000042396  0.030729736951 |  0.000000050560  0.036647566421 |
    |  -30 |  0.000000566365 |  0.000000001207  0.002131395686 |  0.000000014790  0.026114556954 |  0.000000017287  0.030522184957 |
    |  -31 |  0.000000433868 |  0.000000003441  0.007931769055 |  0.000000005377  0.012392517290 |  0.000000026322  0.060667381088 |
    |  -32 |  0.000000158870 |  0.000000001004  0.006321000368 |  0.000000002057  0.012944916063 |  0.000000007695  0.048433408764 |
    |  -33 |  0.000000122811 |  0.000000000519  0.004226763993 |  0.000000002800  0.022796740531 |  0.000000005947  0.048422480843 |
    |  -34 |  0.000000031776 |  0.000000000064  0.002019468523 |  0.000000000849  0.026707980283 |  0.000000001116  0.035117483540 |
    |  -35 |  0.000000032190 |  0.000000000214  0.006633900805 |  0.000000000600  0.018633082630 |  0.000000000416  0.012914549804 |
    |  -36 |  0.000000009849 |  0.000000000071  0.007190247430 |  0.000000000127  0.012873043304 |  0.000000000030  0.003050102673 |
    |  -37 |  0.000000005389 |  0.000000000021  0.003843071898 |  0.000000000008  0.001551574941 |  0.000000000307  0.057003423766 |
    |  -38 |  0.000000001949 |  0.000000000005  0.002752227688 |  0.000000000000  0.000224819650 |  0.000000000110  0.056685852733 |
    |  -39 |  0.000000001390 |  0.000000000000  0.000217709927 |  0.000000000047  0.033858278950 |  0.000000000008  0.005610074373 |
    |  -40 |  0.000000000107 |  0.000000000000  0.000021709435 |  0.000000000003  0.026996815342 |  0.000000000000  0.000785113912 |
    |  -41 |  0.000000000224 |  0.000000000001  0.006680635657 |  0.000000000000  0.000653548089 |  0.000000000000  0.000013602017 |
    |  -42 |  0.000000000017 |  0.000000000000  0.004502826862 |  0.000000000000  0.000054923862 |  0.000000000000  0.000000595462 |
    |  -43 |  0.000000000033 |  0.000000000000  0.000016454331 |  0.000000000002  0.054908909722 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000024 |
    |  -44 |  0.000000000002 |  0.000000000000  0.000000836519 |  0.000000000000  0.041696755935 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |  -45 |  0.000000000004 |  0.000000000000  0.017380866392 |  0.000000000000  0.000025524972 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |  -46 |  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.010488459227 |  0.000000000000  0.000000057238 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |  -47 |  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000082089 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |  -48 |  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |  -49 |  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.060273957907 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |  -50 |  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.022742940815 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |  -51 |  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    |  -52 |  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |  0.000000000000  0.000000000000 |
    +------+-----------------+---------------------------------+---------------------------------+---------------------------------+


    Enjoy!

    Sincerely,
    Cac

  11. #24


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    It should be clarified that I am not analyzing any play in particular. If I wanted to analyze 88vT, the frequencies are going to change a little bit.

    Cac

  12. #25


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    This is awesome Cac and this is a smart way to break it down.
    The frequency within each TC is really helpful.
    I will take a close look at those numbers and keep them close.

    Just one quick question.
    1) If we were to do the same process with a surplus of 789s.
    Would the frequencies at ratios 1.0 and 1.25 be similar to .50 and .25 respectively?
    Last edited by Secretariat; 10-13-2022 at 10:05 PM.

  13. #26


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat View Post
    This is awesome Cac and this is a smart way to break it down.
    The frequency within each TC is really helpful.
    I will take a close look at those numbers and keep them close.

    Just one quick question.
    1) If we were to do the same process with a surplus of 789s.
    Would the frequencies at ratios 1.0 and 1.25 be similar to .50 and .25 respectively?
    Yes, I can do those calculations but first I have some doubts based on the examples you posted:

    2D) 6 6 6 6 6 6 2 2 2 24 = 66 cards remaining
    6D) 12 12 12 12 12 12 4 4 4 48 = 132 cards remaining

    In both cases we have TC zero which is fine but I am not clear about the ratio.
    In the posted tables, I calculated the ratio as follows:

    2D) ratio = (2 + 2 + 2) / 24 = 0.33
    6D) ratio = (4 + 4 + 4) / 48 = 0.25

    But this is based on the remaining composition and not on the cards that we've already seen.
    I understand that we have to keep two counts, one of 789s and another of Tens that have already
    been seen and not that are left in the pack.
    For me this is the calculation that should be done in the two examples:

    2D) ratio = (6 + 6 + 6) / 8 = 2.25
    6D) ratio = (20 + 20 + 20) / 48 = 1.25

    Or, instead of calculating the ratio as 789/T do it the other way around as T/789

    2D) ratio = 8 / (6 + 6 + 6) = 0.44
    6D) ratio = 48 / (20 + 20 + 20) = 0.80

    What do you think? I'll be looking forward to your response.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

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