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Thread: Is this normal after 142 hours of play (Huge win and now Huge loss)

  1. #11
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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  2. #12


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    Your risk is through the roof on a 20k roll and this game sucks in the first place. You can wong out you just aren't choosing to do it. If you keep fucking around you're going broke.

  3. #13


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    I have a few thoughts which you might want to take with a grain of salt since I am only a recreational AP player.

    1. You might want to lower the Standard Deviation by having a more gradual bet spread. CVCX is a great tool to try out different betting strategies and notice how SD might be affected.

    2. Visualize variance by looking at a standard deviation bell curve. I would expect outcomes within 1 SD about 68% of the time, outcomes in the 2nd SD about 27%, and outcomes exceeding the 3rd SD around 5% of the time. Do your results fall within those general expectations?

    3. Penetration is important. Go to those dealers who seem to cut off only 1 deck remaining and try to avoid the less generous ones. I know this is easier said than done, but to the extent possible try to favor the dealers with better penetration.

    4. Try to selectively Wong Out when possible. Even though the tables are crowded, you may be able to "bet 0" while taking a bathroom break or getting a cup of coffee, taking a phone call or whatever excuse you can use to temporarily step back from the table. I understand this option is limited, but try to take advantage if you can.

  4. #14


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    If the OP doesn't have access to lower minimum games, conditions aren't favorable to wonging, and he's dealing with high variance, would the OP benefit by using the Risk Averse Indices? Not sure if OP has the mileage/experience to deal with another set of Indices, but thought it would address some of his concerns about losing the bigger bets at higher counts where he might normally double or split at the normal indices.

  5. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by WA Player View Post
    2. Visualize variance by looking at a standard deviation bell curve. I would expect outcomes within 1 SD about 68% of the time, outcomes in the 2nd SD about 27%, and outcomes exceeding the 3rd SD around 5% of the time. Do your results fall within those general expectations?
    What you wrote above is confusing, as you begin by quoting a percentage to be within one standard deviation and then shift to being outside of two and then three SDs. And, in any event, your last two percentages are grossly incorrect.

    So, what you meant to write is: I would expect outcomes within 1 SD about 68% of the time, within 2 SDs about 95.4% of the time, and within 3 SDs around 99.7% of the time.

    Don

  6. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    So, what you meant to write is: I would expect outcomes within 1 SD about 68% of the time, within 2 SDs about 95.4% of the time, and within 3 SDs around 99.7% of the time.
    Thank you, Don. What you wrote is much better.

  7. #17


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    Thanks everyone, yes I am always within the standard deviations which is expected. I only have access to the 25 minimum table with 2000 limit. Otherwise, it's 100 min with 5000 max on dealer stands soft 17. I definitely don't have a bankroll for that amount of play. I know my risk is high for a 20K bankroll, however that is just theoretical. I have access to more funds, I have a full time career and this is just a fixed amount I can afford to lose and still be okay with that loss. I would like to lower my risk and I could wong out long enough for a call or bathroom break. I will definitely try that in the future. Since this post I am back up to over 7K and I do look for the 1 deck pen.

    I do have access to 15 min and 1000 max, however those games are a 6:5 which I know isn't great. I wish folks would stop playing those and Casinos would have to offer better games. We all know that will never be the case though. Again, I appreciate all the great comments and am always open to suggestions and learning new ways to play to lower risk and be more efficient.

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