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Thread: Is this normal after 142 hours of play (Huge win and now Huge loss)

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    Is this normal after 142 hours of play (Huge win and now Huge loss)

    I'm relatively new to counting, however I have been studying the game for several months and feel I have the counts correct, as well as the deviations. I have used CVCX to figure my betting strategy for the game I play. (H17 DAS No surrender 6 Deck Shoe). I have around a 20K Bank Roll. After 142 hours I have won up to 16K and now back in the minus. I feel like the last several sessions I just can't win. I know variance is something we all discuss, however this has been tough. Is this normal or not after this many hours of play. I feel like I am starting to lose more big bets when the TC is +3 or higher than I'm winning. I do have to play through negative shoes because of the casino I'm in, you can't really Wong in and out. There aren't enough tables and they stay crowded. However, that's not where the majority of my losses are happening, it is during those hight TC's. I'm starting to ask my self is it worth it to continue this effort, I have put many many hours into practice and memorization. I have no issues keeping up with the game, counting and correctly making the plays. However, I'm not perfect and I'm sure I've made mistakes along the way. Just looking for some advice from seasoned AP's.

    TC 1 = 25 (1 Unit)
    TC 2 = 125 (5 Units)
    TC 3 = 250 (10 Units)
    TC 4+ = 300 (12 Units)

    62E480E9-CF6B-418F-8818-0A23DF4545B9.jpg
    Last edited by bsdavidson21; 10-03-2022 at 05:40 AM.

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    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bsdavidson21 View Post
    H17 DAS No surrender 6 Deck Shoe
    This is very bad rules and game and spread 1-12. You just got lucky in the beginning.
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

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    This is the only game available to me here, any thoughts on what would be a more efficient betting spread?

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    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    300 its MAX bet on table ? Game 25-300 ?
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

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    OP, you didn't say what kind of penetration you're getting at your game.

    You should be able to see in CVCX what your standard deviation would be for your 142 hours, based on pen, your hand per hour, and your spread. I assume your tables are relatively full (60 hands per hour?) , and that at best you are getting 1.5 decks cut-off. Your 1-12 spread is low. If you're back to even after 142 hours, then you're well within 1 SD. From your graph, it looks like you peaked at +16K after 36 hours which I think is between +2 and +3 SD's, so you had some good luck early on. You should try to get a larger spread, maybe go to 2x225, or look at what CVCX shows as the Optimal spread for your 25-300 spread.

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    No, min is 25 max 2000

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    Deck penetration is normally between 1 and 1.5. The red line in the graph is my expected EV. I was using the optimal spread based on CVCX.

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    Without doing any sims, seems to me that 5 units at +2 is a lot for a realtively small edge and will increase your variance.

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    Last edited by bsdavidson21; 10-04-2022 at 06:09 AM.

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