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Thread: Ideal Bet Spread? please Advise.

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    Ideal Bet Spread? please Advise.

    Hello Seniors,

    I m experimenting with some new AP methods in Blackjack, I simulated some of that, but my RiskOfRuin is extremly High.

    The betting spread I came so far to have decent EV and not-completely-suicide high RoR.

    I m still upgrading my method, but so far this is the table of result i generated:



    Simulated: 5500000 hands
    Betting Tier Bet Advantage Number Appeared % apeared
    T0 1 or 0 -0,47% 4384279 79,71%
    T1 1 1,13% 114067 2,07%
    T2 1 1,44% 104024 1,89%
    T3 3 1,32% 255615 4,65%
    T4 10 0,43% 67285 1,22%
    T5 15 2,02% 247542 4,50%
    T6 20 2,04% 146749 2,67%
    T7 40 3,12% 92835 1,69%
    T8 60 4,07% 87604 1,59%
    Total Bets 15495754 Units
    Cash Earned 284554 Units
    Edge 1,84%
    EV per hand 0,051737091 Units
    On Bankroll: 1000 Units
    Doubled: 370
    Ruined: 92
    RiskOfRuin 19,91%




    Maybe try define some Tier between T0 and T1, that could have some miniscule advantage? But usually T1 is not perfoming so well and T4 is befrorming better, Maybe i should make like 100x bigger simulation....but i think something is definitely wrong, RoR should not be so high...

    Goint for launch and launched 10M simulations plus comparing versus OmegaCount. I still think i m doing something very wrong, and my model should not perform so bad
    Last edited by Zabut; 09-13-2022 at 03:58 AM.

  2. #2


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    First off I am assuming you are using a Hi-Lo counting strategy and you should state the rules of game you are simulating - #Decks, 3:2, DAS, RSA, Surr options etc. Also deck penetration is key factor when calculating RoR.
    Secondly the player edge you have indicate looks strange to me:
    - T4 has a lower player edge of 0.43% than T3 of 1.32% (with more than a tripling of your unit bet (3 units to 10) that would account for the significant increase in the higher risk of ruin number)
    - the jump from initial house edge T0 of -0.47% to T1 of 1.13% also looks high to me. Typically a +1 increase of true count (again assuming Hi-Lo) is roughly 0.05 increase in player edge. So T1 the player edge would be break even around 0% in this case.

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    The thing is I m using is new method I spent quite alot of time developing Its not HiLo or other Card Counting System, I think T4 is just victim of Variance (At least i hope ),
    The jump from -0.47% witch is little bit higher than house edge, T1 is something like because its like 45% chance to have 1,5% edge => should be something around 0.14% edge? (Variance works strange)...

    Rules : S17, 3:2BJ, No Hole card check at D10, about 40-50 Deck Penetration on 8 Deck. Splits: No DD, No resplit,cannot hit Splited Aces. (Basicaly Europen rules wich have -0,46% edge).

    I tough that reducing bets on lower tiers would reduce RiskOfRuin..but i quess not working good.

    Right now, I mthinking I m gonna prioritize lowering RiskofRuin even for cost at halving EV....so I m looking for ideal Bet Spread For that.

  4. #4


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    Thanks for the info update - you are on the right track with increasing the number of hands in your sim. To fully test your betting strategy you should test 100s of millions of hands not 10s.
    Any of the simulations I have seen with Norm's software CVCX are 400 million to 500 million hands.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Learn the Kelly formula.
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

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    Well, I compared [1,2,2,4,15,20,40,60] to [2,3,4,6,8,12,20,30], EV droped to 48% and but RiskOfRuin droped from 20% to 5%...i quess I will play safe to build bankroll before go big....I wonder how much heat i will recive with the bet switching.

    Btw: HiLo and OmegaCount is doing quite bad in simulation for some reason...But The simulation is looks OK..., on Perfect Game I lost 0.44% Units on FlatBet per game....

    I m doing that in Python(wich is quite high language), wich is easy to program, but quite slow, maybe I will try lower the the level of code or use 10 Cores or my GPU. To speed it up. Now even 1M is taking 720 secconds :/.

    Btw: The only thing that works perfect are Insurance so far, 18x better earning that Perfect Counting (Very proud of that )

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gramazeka View Post
    Learn the Kelly formula.
    So Basically If its the highest Tier that is 4% edge, that would mean I would bet 1000 (my bankroll) * 4% = 40 Betting units....?

    That would be interesting...thx i will Try it.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Zabut View Post
    So Basically If its the highest Tier that is 4% edge, that would mean I would bet 1000 (my bankroll) * 4% = 40 Betting units....?
    No, it would mean betting 40 units divided by the variance of a hand at that count. So, more like 30 units.

    Finally, if you're actually planning to play this way in a live casino, it's rather certain that jumping your bet from 3 to 10 and spreading from 1 to 60 will pretty much get you thrown out of every casino in the world.

    Don

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    Very interesting question with supporting research from a newbie. I’ll throw some intangibles at you.

    How big is your unit versus your tolerance for risk. Judging by your proposed spread, it’s probably high. Example, if betting unit is $5, bankroll is $5000 - you may well be prepared to totally risk $5000. If that unit is $25, or a $25000 bankroll, you are far less likely to throw caution to the wind. Established players tend to take a far higher risk averse approach as bankroll grows.

    With a limited roll, game selection is very important. This means decent rules and decent pen which translates to - you can’t afford the higher variance of a crappy game.

    Now - is your bankroll fixed or replenishible . In other words, is your bankroll gone if you lose it or do you have monthly funds available to add to your bankroll. So, if you have a sum of money available per month that is unencumbered as in not required for living expense or to debt reduction, you can play as if you have a higher bankroll subject to the following caveats.

    You have a betting unit of $5 and bankroll of $5000.
    Your monthly replenishment is $500 per month or $6000 per year. You can add your annual replenishable amount of $6000 to your $5000 bankroll and play as if you had an $11000 bankroll PROVIDED that
    1. Winnings accumulate and added to the $11000 available.
    2. Should you lose those winnings, but still have the unencumbered $500, you may continue to play as if you had an $11000 bankroll.
    3. If you should lose winnings + the unencumbered $500 within the then current month, your bankroll drops $5000.
    4. When the new month starts, you can then add $6000 to your bankroll subject to points above.

    For additional information - Arnold Snyder’s Blackbelt in Blackjack - Chapter 12, ‘HOW MUCH MONEY DO I NEED”, page 131 with special emphasis starting at bottom of page 147.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Zabut View Post
    Rules : S17, 3:2BJ, No Hole card check at D10, about 40-50 Deck Penetration on 8 Deck. Splits: No DD, No resplit,cannot hit Splited Aces. (Basicaly Europen rules wich have -0,46% edge).
    Just a quick comment here. For 8D-S17-DOA-NDAS-SPA1-SPL3, EV it's about -0,57% off the top. If you can't resplit then it's about -0,61%.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

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