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Thread: Anybody Thinks This is a Good Bet

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    Anybody Thinks This is a Good Bet

    Bills vs. Rams Up 7 Early Win
    Go up a TD and get paid immediately! Win your moneyline bet if your team leads by at least 7 points at ANY time, even if they lose the game.


    I'm thinking of making a money line bet on this game. Right now it's Buf Bills -135 and LA Rams +115. if the team you bet on gets up by 7 points at any time you win the game. Any thoughts on this bet?

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    Bills vs. Rams Up 7 Early Win
    Go up a TD and get paid immediately! Win your moneyline bet if your team leads by at least 7 points at ANY time, even if they lose the game.


    I'm thinking of making a money line bet on this game. Right now it's Buf Bills -135 and LA Rams +115. if the team you bet on gets up by 7 points at any time you win the game. Any thoughts on this bet?
    I’m a “bet both sides and hedge when you can” type of guy, so that’s what I’m doing. I operate more than one DK account, so I’m betting both sides in the hopes that each team goes up by 7 at some point in the game. If not, then I’ll hedge for a small guaranteed win or only have a small loss. If you can’t do that, I would make this bet on the favorite and cross your fingers.

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    Yep, I took the Bills at -135 moneyline, and I have already got paid. Last night for awhile the moneyline was -130 but waited till today and it was back up to -135.

  4. #4
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    first - I have not done a detailed study of this but I have observed this many times in many different sports and I believe it to be true


    and I believe it happens most often with a strong fave - when the betting opens a better deal can be had on the fave and a better deal can be had on the dog close to game time

    of course, someone betting very early will have less info - it's a tradeoff - but I believe a great many times the additional info that can be had by waiting until close to gametime is not all that significant

    also, if there is significant info that favors a team, it has just as much of a chance to favor the fave as it does to favor the dog

    so, therefore - any info coming out later than the opening line can be considered a zero sum thing in the long run

    this refers to the game of Sunday Dec. 5 2021 - Colts vs. Oilers

    in this game the Colts ended up as a 9.5 or 10 point fave - but as you can see in the link - when PointsBet opened up it's betting on Sunday Nov. 28 at 8:34 a.m. they were only a 7 point fave

    yet another useful strategy would be to try and capture a middle. bet the fave at -7 on the opening line and the dog at +10 on the line near closing

    f the fave wins by 8 or 9 both bets would win - if the fave pushes on -7 the dog would win at +10 - if the dog pushes at +10 the fave would win at -7 - otherwise there would be a loss of 4.5% - one side winning and one side losing


    obviously - many will not want to bet that early - others may appreciate the better deal - which is of course not guaranteed but is nonetheless very common

    in last night's Bills game - the Bills opened about a week in advance at -1 at PointsBet and at gametime were - 2.5 - again, it works better with a stronger fave - the stronger the fave - the more chances for it to land on a middle



    https://www.covers.com/sport/footbal...-at-hou/244401
    Last edited by drunk; 09-09-2022 at 02:58 AM.
    a rich man's foolish sayings pass as words of wisdom to the fools around him

  5. #5


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    Chargers vs. Chiefs Up 7 Early Win
    Go up a TD and get paid immediately! Win your moneyline bet if your team leads by at least 7 points at ANY time, even if they lose the game!


    Okay, will try it again. Placed my moneyline bet on KC at -205. Took the favorite like old new guy said to do. However, this time there is a max bet of only $50.

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    Expensive night for Draftkings. Bettors on both sides of Chiefs and Chargers won their bets, but max bet you could make was only $50.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    Expensive night for Draftkings. Bettors on both sides of Chiefs and Chargers won their bets, but max bet you could make was only $50.
    They tweeted they paid out $25 mil..I hope they’re ok

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Old new guy View Post
    They tweeted they paid out $25 mil..I hope they’re ok
    Boy, that seems like a lot especially since the max bet on the early win promotion was limited to $50. However, I guess you are right according to this article.
    https://dknation.draftkings.com/spor...in-herbert-tnf

    Draftkings is not yet profitable. They are going for market share and spending a lot on promotions. However, at least in MI the promotions are nothing like they were last year.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    Boy, that seems like a lot especially since the max bet on the early win promotion was limited to $50. However, I guess you are right according to this article.
    https://dknation.draftkings.com/spor...in-herbert-tnf

    Draftkings is not yet profitable. They are going for market share and spending a lot on promotions. However, at least in MI the promotions are nothing like they were last year.
    The max was targeted. Some got $500. I got $100.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Old new guy View Post
    The max was targeted. Some got $500. I got $100.
    Strange I only received $50, and I have top tier of Onyx. For the Bills game I was offered a $1,000 max bet, but only made a small bet so maybe that is why they only gave me $50.

    I see they are offering a 10 point early win payout on all of this Sunday's games, but there is a big difference between being ahead by 7 points vs 10 points.

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