Strategy Derivation based on Dealers SECOND card predicted?

[Zabut]

Hello seniors,

Lets say, i have quite good hunch about Dealer second card, is there any decision table agains Dealers 2 card?

Preferably Europen rules (8 decks, 1-only split, cannot hit split acces, cannot double after split)

I think I would have to simulate it myself, but a table for reference would be very nice.

[Norm]

Assuming this is no hole card, then this would be next-carding. Are you saying the dealer's upcard is a 2 and you have a good idea about the second card, or the dealer is going to draw a 2 for the second card? In the first case, you would need one of ten sets of tables depending on your hunch, In the second case, the table would look like https://qfit.com/book/z7042chart.gif. Also, if you have a good idea of the second card, knowing it is one of few cards, that would require a partial next carding table.

Realize that if you are in the last seat, you have the ability to take the dealer's second card, which is what makes these calculations interesting.

[Zabut]

Thx,
I basically have better than perfect counting method at predicting next 1-2 cards (about 13% to 50% lift vs Perfect Counting(depends on the circumstances, i can predict the lift factor)). Tried simulate betting spread (not yet full optimized), to have 1.4%/1.6% edge over House (The Rules are quite bad with 0.993 edge when playing normal strategy and flat bets.).
But the problem is %Ruin before double at 12,7% to 20,5%(with 1000 betting units) (the latter numbers are agressive betting), when using Basic Strategy Table from https://wizardofodds.com/games/black...gy/calculator/.

I seriously think I m doing something wrong...

The problem now i m facing is to make better Strategy table, basic on my prediction, and where to seat. (better betting at 1-2 table VS better prediction of D 2nd card at latter seats), so far I think the more weight is on better betting than better strategy.

Also the problem there is problem in my method that if at seats 1-2, the D 2nd card nad my 3nd card, can Influence each other, so for decision I would need to code alot of If and split....my head seriously hurts. I tried to draw schemas on paper.
..

Well sorry for my rambling, back to codding.

I think I will make it easy, ignoring BinominalProblem first :
Dealer second card= Pd=[pd0...pd9], then make "reward" based on decision versus that and make sum (of pdX*RewardHitX )vs sum (of pdX*RewardStayX) vs DD vs Split...etc....
then i will try to get rid of the Bionomenal pair problem later with something...


Altrough, theoretically, I can have companion who can theoretically only specialize on busting the dealer, but I think Lift factor is not so great usually, that It could pay for his time and lost of basic betting unit each hand. But thx for idea

[Gramazeka]

Thx,
I basically have better than perfect counting method at predicting next 1-2 cards (about 13% to 50% lift vs Perfect Counting(depends on the circumstances, i can predict the lift factor)). Tried simulate betting spread (not yet full optimized), to have 1.4%/1.6% edge over House (The Rules are quite bad with 0.993 edge when playing normal strategy and flat bets.).
But the problem is %Ruin before double at 12,7% to 20,5%(with 1000 betting units) (the latter numbers are agressive betting), when using Basic Strategy Table from https://wizardofodds.com/games/black...gy/calculator/.

I seriously think I m doing something wrong...

The problem now i m facing is to make better Strategy table, basic on my prediction, and where to seat. (better betting at 1-2 table VS better prediction of D 2nd card at latter seats), so far I think the more weight is on better betting than better strategy.

Also the problem there is problem in my method that if at seats 1-2, the D 2nd card nad my 3nd card, can Influence each other, so for decision I would need to code alot of If and split....my head seriously hurts. I tried to draw schemas on paper.
..

Well sorry for my rambling, back to codding.

I think I will make it easy, ignoring BinominalProblem first :
Dealer second card= Pd=[pd0...pd9], then make "reward" based on decision versus that and make sum (of pdX*RewardHitX )vs sum (of pdX*RewardStayX) vs DD vs Split...etc....
then i will try to get rid of the Bionomenal pair problem later with something...


Altrough, theoretically, I can have companion who can theoretically only specialize on busting the dealer, but I think Lift factor is not so great usually, that It could pay for his time and lost of basic betting unit each hand. But thx for idea

I recommend that you study the books and videos from Persi Diaconis.

https://youtu.be/QjFmgSBxCNU