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Thread: What Are the Odds of Success in This Promotion

  1. #1


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    What Are the Odds of Success in This Promotion

    I believe it is free to entry this promotion, but you have to get 5 correct to win a prize. You will have 17 tries over the NFL season.

    Here is the promotion.

    ONYX TIER EXCLUSIVE

    TWO WAYS TO WIN

    WEEKLY PERFECT SCORE BONUS
    Make five perfect weekly selections to earn a $250 DK Dollars bonus. Plus, you'll earn an additional bonus for every subsequent perfect score!

    SEASON LONG PRIZES
    Earn 20X more with your season long multiplier. You could win up to $500,000 DK Dollars for finishing in 1st Place.

    HOW IT WORKS

    ENTER FOR FREE
    Enter before the start of NFL Week 1. Don’t forget to make your picks before Sept. 11 at 1 PM ET.*

    PICK 'EM
    Make five weekly selections against the spread all season long.

    WIN BIG
    Enjoy millions in prizes of weekly bonuses, and compete for a top finishing position to win big!

    The fine print.
    *This contest will run for Weeks 1-17 of the NFL season. Contestants shall earn points by correctly selecting the winner of NFL games based on the point spread for that game. Each correct selection is worth one (1) point, and each incorrect selection is worth zero (0) points. Contestants may make eighty (80) total selections over the first seventeen (17) weeks of the 2022-2023 NFL regular season. Contestants may make five (5) selections each week of the first seventeen (17) weeks of the 2022-2023 NFL regular season; however, each Contestant must make no selections for one (1) week over the first seventeen (17) weeks of the 2022-2023 NFL regular season (the “Skip Week”). For purposes of this Contest, a week of the NFL regular season runs from Wednesday to Tuesday. No selections may be made for week eighteen (18) of the 2022-2023 NFL regular season or for the 2022-2023 NFL Playoffs. Once a Contestant has made five (5) selections in a week, they will not be able to make additional selections for that week. Similarly, once a Contestant has made eighty (80) selections within the first seventeen (17) weeks of the 2022-2023 NFL regular season, they will not be able to make additional selections for the remainder of the Contest. In the event a Contestant makes more than five (5) selections in a week or more than eighty (80) selections in the first seventeen (17) weeks of the 2022-2023 NFL regular season, the additional selections will not be counted. Contestants will not be able to make fewer than five (5) picks in a given week. In the event a Contestant makes fewer than five (5) selections in a week or fewer than eighty (80) selections in the first seventeen (17) weeks of the 2022-2023 NFL regular season, the Contestant shall not be disqualified, but will receive zero (0) points for the unselected games. For example, in the event a Contestant makes five (5) selections for fourteen (14) weeks for a total of seventy (70) selections, but makes no selections in any other weeks of the Contest, those weeks for which the Contestant did not make any selections will be treated the same as if the Contestant made five (5) incorrect selections in each of those weeks. All picks will lock on 1 P.M. ET Sunday, with the exception of any games that start prior to Sunday at 1:00 P.M. ET, contestants may make or modify their selections up until the start time of the selected team’s game. This Pool will payout in DK Dollars.

    My thinking on this promotion is it's like flipping a coin 5 times and getting heads on all the flips. Picking the spread is basically a toss up.
    I used this calculator to determine the odds of winning at least once an it looks like about once in 25. Do you agree with my analysis.
    https://www.omnicalculator.com/stati...ip-probability
    Last edited by Midwest Player; 08-25-2022 at 11:42 PM.

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    You will have 17 tries over the NFL season.
    No, you have 16 tries. You have to skip a week. You pick five games a week for 16 of the 17 weeks, for a total of 80 games.

    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    My thinking on this promotion is it's like flipping a coin 5 times and getting heads on all the flips. Picking the spread is basically a toss up.
    Correct.

    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    I used this calculator to determine the odds of winning at least once and it looks like about once in 25. Do you agree with my analysis.
    No, woefully and grossly incorrect. The odds of winning at least once are 100% - the probability of losing all 16 times. The probability of not getting all five in any given week is 31/32. So, the probability of not getting all five for all 16 weeks is (31/32)^16 = 60.2%. Therefore, the probability that you'll win at least once is 39.8%.

    Finally, DraftKing dollars aren't real dollars; they're credits. You use them to bet, so let's say that they are worth roughly half. So, when you win 250 DK dollars, that's about 125 real dollars. As you have a 40% of winning, the promo is worth about 50 bucks. Actually, it's a little more, because you could win twice or more, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

    Don

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    No, you have 16 tries. You have to skip a week. You pick five games a week for 16 of the 17 weeks, for a total of 80 games.

    Correct.



    No, woefully and grossly incorrect. The odds of winning at least once are 100% - the probability of losing all 16 times. The probability of not getting all five in any given week is 31/32. So, the probability of not getting all five for all 16 weeks is (31/32)^16 = 60.2%. Therefore, the probability that you'll win at least once is 39.8%.

    Finally, DraftKing dollars aren't real dollars; they're credits. You use them to bet, so let's say that they are worth roughly half. So, when you win 250 DK dollars, that's about 125 real dollars. As you have a 40% of winning, the promo is worth about 50 bucks. Actually, it's a little more, because you could win twice or more, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

    Don
    Don, it’s relatively easy to convert DK dollars to cash at nearly 100% (possibly more with arbs)..if that was the case, what would the numbers be like?

  4. #4


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    Since I counted the DK dollars as 50%, just double the value of the promotion to $100. Of course, the variance is there to stay!

    Don

  5. #5


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    Don, thanks for the info. I agree you have 16 tries due to the skip week.

    I'm kind of confused. First you say the "The odds of winning at least once are 100%" Later you say "Therefore, the probability that you'll win at least once is 39.8%." How can it be both 100% and 39.8%. Can you explain? Also I don't understand where the 31/32 numbers come from.

    Both DK dollars and free credits are like cash equivalents except they have to be played once before they can be cashed out. However, I feel DK dollars are better than free credits because they don't expire. Free credits will expire in 6 days. I'm not sure how long DK dollars are good for. The value of DK dollars depends on the game you play. If you play the $250 DK dollars on a .004 house edge blackjack game they are worth around $249. If you play them on a 4% slot game they are worth around $240.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    I'm kind of confused. First you say the "The odds of winning at least once are 100%" Later you say "Therefore, the probability that you'll win at least once is 39.8%." How can it be both 100% and 39.8%. Can you explain? Also I don't understand where the 31/32 numbers come from.
    You should have realized that it's impossible for the odds of winning at least once to be 100%. That isn't what I wrote. I wrote: "The odds of winning at least once are 100% - the probability of losing all 16 times." That's a subtraction sign after the 100%! So read it as "minus"!

    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    Also I don't understand where the 31/32 numbers come from.
    That's the probability of picking five games and NOT winning all of them. You have a 1/2 chance to win one game. So you have a (1/2)^5 = 1/32 of winning all five games. Therefore, you have a 1 - 1/32 = 31/32 of NOT winning all five games. Not winning all five games 16 times in a row, as stated above, would then be (31/32)^16 = 60.2%, which means you have a 1 - .602 = .398 = 39.8% chance of winning all five at least once in 16 weeks. Of course, if you think you have any handicapping ability (don't we all!), you might increase the odds a little bit.

    Finally, you know the drill with variance. MAYBE you'll win once. Maybe not at all. Maybe twice. REALLY lucky--three times.

    Don

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    (don't we all!)
    No.

  8. #8


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    Thanks again Don. Very clear now.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    No.
    Very big club! Actually the club of those who THINK they have handicapping ability is considerably larger than those who actually do. Not sure if the club of those who already know they don't is larger or smaller than the former group.

    Don

  10. #10


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    From the latest leaderboard on free credits. This appears to be a change from the past. In the past I believe on a win the free credit was also given to your cash account along with the win. No wonder I did so poorly on my last free credits play.

    "For Casino Credits, the Casino Free must be wagered 1x and potential winnings cannot be withdrawn until played through. There are no restrictions on the funds a patron will receive if their bet wins. If their bet loses, they will not receive any reward. Casino Credits are non-cashable, non-refundable and cannot be withdrawn. Casino Credits stake is not included in any returns or winnings. This means that if the Casino Free Credit wins, the original Casino Credit stake is not returned to the patron; only the profit will be credited. Ex: If a $5 Casino Free Credit is bet and wins, only the profit of $5 will be credited to the players’ account. Winnings generated from wagering of Casino Credits will be transferred to the registered player’s Cash Balance at which time they may be withdrawn."


    I will soon find out when the free credits are given out for the Sept leaderboards going on now.

    This is what they said about free credits back in April of 2022.

    "Casino Credit: Must be wagered 1x and cannot be withdrawn until played through. There are no turnover requirements or restrictions on Casino Credit winnings. Casino Credits Expire 6 days after the Eligible Period they are earned in. Casino Credits can be played on any Eligible Casino Game. Excluding Live Dealer. If a user does not have enough Casino Credits to make a minimum wager on the game, the remaining Casino Credits will be converted into DK Dollars and immediately added to the player’s balance."
    Last edited by Midwest Player; 09-04-2022 at 02:29 PM.

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