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Thread: What Are the Odds of Success in This Promotion

  1. #27


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    Did I calculate this correctly?

    31/32^8=77.6% Then 100%-77.6% =22.4% chance of winning again with 8 weeks left to go.

  2. #28


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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    Did I calculate this correctly?

    31/32^8=77.6% Then 100%-77.6% =22.4% chance of winning again with 8 weeks left to go.
    Yes. Actually 22.4% chance of winning at least once (not losing all eight weeks). You might win more than once! For example, the probability of winning exactly twice is 2.26% (one chance in 44). Don't count on it!

    Don

  3. #29


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    3 out of 5 correct for week nine. Overall 25 out of 45 correct.

  4. #30


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    Quote Originally Posted by ShipTheCookies View Post
    Well, you card counters win the insurance bet just over 33% of the time where as me and my players win it 100% of the time. ;-)
    A serious question for the CSM man. I don’t know the answer to this.

    A trend I’ve noted on ASM machines in my local markets (most of which no longer welcome my company) is that certain trends mirror themselves on subsequent shoes. I’m honestly don’t know the ASM model numbers and for that matter the different CSM models which are available. Now, in the markets I’m used to, cards are not changed on a daily basis, and for that matter, cards are changed depending on store, every 7-14 days.

    Now, it might be my imagination - in your experience - ASM or CSM - would this practice affect the sorting procedure creating the sort of predictability I’ve alluded to. If this is on point and is sensitive, advise and I will remove.

  5. #31


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    4 out of 5 correct for week ten. Overall 29 out of 50 correct. The Detroit game screwed me this week.

  6. #32


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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    4 out of 5 correct for week ten. Overall 29 out of 50 correct. The Detroit game screwed me this week.
    Ironically, it was my best bet of the weekend.

    Don

  7. #33


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    3 out of 5 correct for week 11. Overall 32 out of 55 correct or 58%.

    Looks like most everybody did bad this week.
    You scored 3/5 this past week, which beat the average score of 2.37/5.
    Last edited by Midwest Player; 11-22-2022 at 10:47 AM.

  8. #34


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    4 out of 5 correct for week 13. Overall 37 out of 65 correct or 57%. Chiefs game screwed me. Only three more tries left.

  9. #35


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    Only 2 out of 5 correct for week 15. Overall 42 out of 75 correct or 56%. Only one more week to get 5 correct again.

  10. #36


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    It's time to lose all 5 because you're "due" to drop to 50%

  11. #37


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    Jinxed by 21forme. I didn't lose all 5 this week, but came close. I only won 1 out 5. The promotion is over for me because I played 16 weeks. My overall score was 43 right out of 80 or 54%.

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