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Thread: Foolish Play???

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    Foolish Play???

    Hello. Let’s say your at the last hand of the shoe. True count is plus 8 or better. Dealer is showing a 6. Your hand totals 5 or 6. As the count was high to begin the deal, you had a max bet out. Is it ok to double on your hand knowing the best you can do is 15 or 16? My thought process is I want to get as much money on the table in this situation. What kind of attention will this bring?

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    Quote Originally Posted by FerrisB View Post
    Hello. Let’s say your at the last hand of the shoe. True count is plus 8 or better. Dealer is showing a 6. Your hand totals 5 or 6. As the count was high to begin the deal, you had a max bet out. Is it ok to double on your hand knowing the best you can do is 15 or 16? My thought process is I want to get as much money on the table in this situation. What kind of attention will this bring?
    h17?...easy answer otherwise, I guess

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    The dealer busts a 6 up 50% of the time at +10 or so.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    The dealer busts a 6 up 50% of the time at +10 or so.
    Sorry but dealer bust rate is not the answer to this. The full answer is to check your index play because that has factored in all the variates. And there is no index play for doubling a hard 6 against a dealer's 6.
    Chance favors the prepared mind

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    Quote Originally Posted by FerrisB View Post
    Hello. Let’s say your at the last hand of the shoe. True count is plus 8 or better. Dealer is showing a 6. Your hand totals 5 or 6. As the count was high to begin the deal, you had a max bet out. Is it ok to double on your hand knowing the best you can do is 15 or 16? My thought process is I want to get as much money on the table in this situation. What kind of attention will this bring?
    Nope, it's not ok to double. The HL index for 6 vs 6 in shoes is +19 (S17) and +16 (H17).

    Sincerely,
    Cac

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    Quote Originally Posted by iCountNTrack View Post
    Sorry but dealer bust rate is not the answer to this. The full answer is to check your index play because that has factored in all the variates. And there is no index play for doubling a hard 6 against a dealer's 6.
    There's an index for virtually any play. it just might not be published by your source.

    And regarding the index to double 6 v 6, it depends on your risk aversion

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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    And regarding the index to double 6 v 6, it depends on your risk aversion
    Well, if we start at TC = +19, how much higher would you like to go?!

    Don

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    Don - I was thinking LESS risk aversion and playing it above +10.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    Don - I was thinking LESS risk aversion and playing it above +10.
    Wouldn't make any sense. Edge by doubling at +10 is -3%. By hitting, +9%. What would be the point of sacrificing 12% of a max bet??

    Don

  10. #10


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    maybe I'm misunderstanding.

    Suppose max bet is $100. Your EV is $9 by hitting. If doubling, your bet is $200. Are you saying your EV is -$6?

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