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Thread: House edge bj tables theoretical vs practical ????

  1. #1


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    House edge bj tables theoretical vs practical ????

    Nevada publishes something every month called a "Win percent" for every game. Sometimes the win percent is called the casino hold. I will quote the wizard here:

    The house advantage is the percentage you will lose, on average, of each dollar bet. The hold is the ratio of money the casino wins to chips purchased. This is going to be much higher than the house edge because in table games players circulate through the same chips for a while.

    This percentage is larger than the house edge even considering wild unorthodox play, because the winnings are circulated back in. Sometimes when it goes up it is an indication that people are staying at the tables longer.

    The win percent for the last year for blackjack in all of Nevada was 11.38%.

    So ... how the 2% house edge that a casino has against an average player becomes 11.38%

    Can some one help me understand that ...

    I thought that the correct way was hands /hour × average bet × house edge =hourly profit of the table for the casino

    What I am missing again ????


    Thanks ...

  2. #2


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    I believe that it has something to do with a Random Walk problem. The idea is that no matter how much you win, if the game outcome is somewhat random, you will stumble upon a losing streak that will ruin your bankroll if you play long enough. And the smaller your bankroll – the higher are chances of this happening. So regular player may choose to continue playing if he’s been winning, but he usually stops playing if he runs out of money. That explains why in practice there’s a “slight” drift in house edge to casino favor, but it may be not an ultimate explanation.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by stefan View Post
    Nevada publishes something every month called a "Win percent" for every game. Sometimes the win percent is called the casino hold. I will quote the wizard here:

    The house advantage is the percentage you will lose, on average, of each dollar bet. The hold is the ratio of money the casino wins to chips purchased. This is going to be much higher than the house edge because in table games players circulate through the same chips for a while.

    This percentage is larger than the house edge even considering wild unorthodox play, because the winnings are circulated back in. Sometimes when it goes up it is an indication that people are staying at the tables longer.

    The win percent for the last year for blackjack in all of Nevada was 11.38%.

    So ... how the 2% house edge that a casino has against an average player becomes 11.38%

    Can some one help me understand that ...

    I thought that the correct way was hands /hour × average bet × house edge =hourly profit of the table for the casino

    What I am missing again ????


    Thanks ...

    You just said that: Nevada publishes something every month called a "Win percent" for every game. Sometimes the win percent is called the casino hold.


    So, if they give you a win percentage of 11.38%, that means this is the hold. Then like you mention it happens because the money is recirculated. Example, you bet $100/hand and play 100 rounds per hour. Your action for this hour is $10 000. If the house edge is 0.5%, you should lose in the long run about $50 per hour. If you play 4 hours, you'd expect to lose $200. If you had buy $2000 in chips and quit after 4 hours, you would have lost $200/$2000 (buy-in) and the "casino hold" will be 10% or $200/$2000.

    You can say that for the period mentioned, players in Nevada quit the BJ tables after they have lost on average 11.38% of their buy-in.
    G Man

  4. #4
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    IMO, drop and hold are among the silliest statistics one can find. But, easier for a casino to calculate.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  5. #5


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    So ... The 10% is the profit from the money drop at the table ?

    I had a conversation with a pit boss and he told me that they were trying to canc each client action to decide about his comp.

    The casino was keeping track of how much time he was playing his strategy and his average bet.

    When I ask him if the average bet was canculated like (min+min+max)/3 he denied but he refused to give more details

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by stefan View Post
    So ... The 10% is the profit from the money drop at the table ?
    Yep.
    G Man

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