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Thread: What to do in this situation ?

  1. #1


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    What to do in this situation ?

    Hi everyone,
    I am a newbie so please be nice !
    1) Is it normal to only win 3 hands out the entire 6 decks shoe playing 1v1 with the dealer ?
    2) to stay under the radar is it better to use : (1blacks 20 reds) or (1 black 3greens 5 reds) , or (7 greens 5 reds) ?
    3)I’m only in for ~60hrs and already doubled my roll and I’m expecting to hit a down swing at anytime I’m playing with 6decks, 75% pen, H 17, double any 2 cards, DAS, no RSA, no surrender, 1-16 spread, hi-lo, and no side count, top 10 out of the ill18.
    Is it a good move to scale down to a 1-8 spread or what would be a smart move to still max EV while minimize damage when negative variance kicks in ?

    Thanks in advance!!!
    Last edited by backmeoff; 02-26-2024 at 02:45 AM.

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by backmeoff View Post
    Hi everyone, I am a newbie so please be nice ! 1) Is it normal to only win 3 hands out the entire 6 decks shoe playing 1v1 with the dealer ?
    didn't happen. You may have felt that way but it didn't happen.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by sondjata View Post
    didn't happen. You may have felt that way but it didn't happen.
    I agree. Playing alone, with 75% pen, you get about 43 hands per shoe. The probability of winning a hand is about 0.47. You did NOT go 3-40! It's just about mathematically impossible.

    Don

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by backmeoff View Post
    Hi everyone,
    I am a newbie so please be nice !
    1) Is it normal to only win 3 hands out the entire 6 decks shoe playing 1v1 with the dealer ?
    2) to stay under the radar is it better to use : (1blacks 20 reds) or (1 black 3greens 5 reds) , or (7 greens 5 reds) ?
    3)I’m only in for ~60hrs and already doubled my roll and I’m expecting to hit a down swing at anytime I’m playing with 6decks, 75% pen, H 17, double any 2 cards, DAS, no RSA, no surrender, 1-16 spread, hi-lo, and no side count, top 10 out of the ill18.
    Is it a good move to scale down to a 1-8 spread or what would be a smart move to still max EV while minimize damage when negative variance kicks in ?

    Thanks in advance!!!
    1. Already answered. It's not only not normal, it's impossible.
    2. Seven greens five reds. It's always best to avoid black if you can.
    3. Can't you memorize the remaining eight indices? No, do NOT reduce your stakes if you have the proper bankroll to play at the levels you're playing. Negative variance doesn't "kick in." Variance, whether positive or negative, is there all the time. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. You don't "expect" downturns. They're there all the time. You deal with them.

    Don

  5. #5


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    You can always pocket your blacks and not leave them on the table... That's what I do.. When I either build up some greens so I don't have mounds of chips in front of me I color up to a black and then slip it into my shirt pocket or the like.. Or I grab it when I leave the table to hit the bathroom.. I like keeping just enough on the table to cover some doubles or at least one 4 card split at roughly whatever my +4 TC bet level would be for that game. I have yet to see any floor boss or whomever freak out over any player with 1 black and some greens/reds... That would be insane.. I was playing just last week and some guy was hitting TRILUX side bets left and right at max limit bets and was getting $970.00 per bet payoff. At one point he had over $9k in black on the table and the pit boss didn't even walk down to that end of the pit. Any good BJ player if they are getting hit with some losses would downsize their bets accordingly if required depending upon their current trip bankroll. You need to read some books on bankroll management it seems.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by backmeoff View Post
    The reason I only 10 out of 18 is because I saw something like “just use the top 10 to avoid heat, the other 8 make almost no difference overall” and a few people agreed with that post
    Well, the top 10 will get you 78% of all the gain available over BS for the game you're playing. The top 18 will get you 88%. I think they're worth learning, don't you?

    Don

  7. #7


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    If you are struggling with deck estimation consider using RED 7 counting system and you don't have to worry about it.. I don't know you, nor do I have any clue about how fluent you are in whatever counting system you are using but I guess my advice for what it's worth is that it would be better to use an easier counting system that you can do master, carry on conversations with other players and the dealer, drink a beer and still keep the count and be accurate. You only have to memorize some very obvious index plays with RED 7 as well that an 8 year could remember with an hour of drills. Lastly, never take anything a ploppy says a face value.. Lastly, dude, by some books you can get them on Amazon for $1.00 and read them on a kindle and you will be MUCH more informed than reading Quora which has more mis-information that correct information.

  8. #8


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    Geez 10% more to memorize only 8 moves
    100% worth it !
    Thanks again Don !

  9. #9


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    Thanks for all the useful advice Von!
    how accurate is it red 7 over hi-lo because -12 is default, do you still use the ill18 indices with red 7 or it has its own indices?
    Again sorry for all the questions! I’m a newbie and I don’t have software nor own any books, so I’m trying to learn as much “real time experience” as possible.

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