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Thread: What Are the Odds of Getting a Blackjack in Spanish 21

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Fine, still 382
    God, you're stubborn. And 100% wrong. You saw my answer. You saw Cac's. Do you REALLY want to pursue this? Argue with yourself. I'm done. And, if you have a half a brain, you will be too.

    Don

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    God, you're stubborn. And 100% wrong. You saw my answer. You saw Cac's. Do you REALLY want to pursue this? Argue with yourself. I'm done. And, if you have a half a brain, you will be too.

    Don
    You’ll need to explain it to me like I’m a 6 year old.
    Player gets
    1st of 384 cards
    Dealer gets second card of 383 cards remaining
    Player gets third card of 382 cards remaining
    What am I missing?

    Oh, and yes, I’m stubborn - part of my charm in my business career that helped me a great deal.

  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    You’ll need to explain it to me like I’m a 6 year old.
    Player gets
    1st of 384 cards
    Dealer gets second card of 383 cards remaining
    Player gets third card of 382 cards remaining
    What am I missing?

    Oh, and yes, I’m stubborn - part of my charm in my business career that helped me a great deal.
    Think about it this way, you draw two cards randomly from a shoe, what are the odds of getting a blackjack? The dealer cards are totally irrelevant because you want OVERALL probability not the probability for a given dealer upcard.
    To get a BJ, you can have 10,A or A,10 that's why Calc multiplied by 2
    Chance favors the prepared mind

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by iCountNTrack View Post
    Think about it this way, you draw two cards randomly from a shoe, what are the odds of getting a blackjack? The dealer cards are totally irrelevant because you want OVERALL probability not the probability for a given dealer upcard.
    To get a BJ, you can have 10,A or A,10 that's why Calc multiplied by 2
    You're a post or 2 behind. I confess to exactitude based on dealers hole card not being an ace or face. I agree that dealers hole card is not relevant.

    The salient point is player CANNOT get a blackjack until the 3rd card of 382 remaining cards is dealt.

    You also said
    To get a BJ, you can have 10,A or A,10 that's why Calc multiplied by 2
    [/QUOTE]

    Seems to me that I did that as well.

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Can’t resist.
    Don, you’re wrong. Dealer gets card before players first card. Assuming dealer doesn’t doesn’t have an ace or face in the hole
    2 x (32/384) x 96/382=4.1884
    I think you're missing something. You have to evaluate when the dealer's upcard is an Ace, a Face or Other! If you do it this way, the sum of the conditional probabilities would be as follows:

    (32*31*96 + 32*96*95 + 32*256*96 + 96*32*31 + 96*95*32 + 96*256*32) / (384*383*382) = 0.041775

    which matches the other calculation.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cacarulo View Post
    I think you're missing something. You have to evaluate when the dealer's upcard is an Ace, a Face or Other! If you do it this way, the sum of the conditional probabilities would be as follows:

    (32*31*96 + 32*96*95 + 32*256*96 + 96*32*31 + 96*95*32 + 96*256*32) / (384*383*382) = 0.041775

    which matches the other calculation.

    Sincerely,
    Cac
    Just up for a few minutes. Interesting - Evaluated with dealer up card not being an ace or face. I’m neither a stats guy nor a math guy, but am a numbers guy. I didn’t feel like going through the exercise of what I perceived to be a longer process. Really very simple.

    Never a bad day when you learn s9 etching. Back to hibernation.

  7. #20


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cacarulo View Post
    For regular BJ in 8D we have:

    32/416*128/415*2 = 0.04745
    1/0.04745 = 21.07 or once every 21 hands.

    For Spanish 21 in 8D we have, as Don well said:

    32/384*96/383*2 = 0.04178
    1/0.04178 = 23.9375 or once every 24 hands.

    Sincerely,
    Cac
    It should also be said that it does not matter if you are playing heads up, with one or two other players or sitting at a full table. The quoted frequencies do not change.
    Casino Enemy No.1

  8. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by davethebuilder View Post
    It should also be said that it does not matter if you are playing heads up, with one or two other players or sitting at a full table. The quoted frequencies do not change.
    No no no. As more cards are dealt out, you will get more blackjacks.

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    No no no. As more cards are dealt out, you will get more blackjacks.
    This is utterly wrong, the probability of getting a blackjack is exactly the same at any point in the deck. Deal 50 cards from a deck, the probability of getting a BJ on the last two cards is the same as the first two cards.
    Chance favors the prepared mind

  10. #23
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Not that it matters in this case; but including the cut card effect:

    Regular BJ 8D: .04740

    SP21 8D: .04175
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  11. #24
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    No no no. As more cards are dealt out, you will get more blackjacks.
    Dan Pronovost wrote an article stating this many years back. It is, of course, utter nonsense. Actually, the odds of getting a blackjack will be very slightly less in the last hand dealt in shoe games.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  12. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Dan Pronovost wrote an article stating this many years back. It is, of course, utter nonsense. Actually, the odds of getting a blackjack will be very slightly less in the last hand dealt in shoe games.
    You both sound reasonable. I was thinking about card counting, when the TC=0, the probability of a blackjack is slightly slightly more in shoe games.

  13. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    No no no. As more cards are dealt out, you will get more blackjacks.
    STFU already!

    Norm or iCNT, please ban him. His nonsense is disruptive and endless.

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