What Are the Odds of Getting a Blackjack in Spanish 21

[Midwest Player]

I believe in regular blackjack you get a blackjack about once in every 21 hands. Anyone know what the odds are in a Spanish 21 8 deck game?

[ShipTheCookies]

With a single deck, the odds are 1 in 27.625. So probably a bit higher then that.

[Midwest Player]

With a single deck, the odds are 1 in 27.625. So probably a bit higher then that.

Is this right? For single deck Spanish 21, if I calculated correctly, I get:

4/48*12/47*2 = 0.04255
1/0.04255 = 23.5018 or once in about 23.5 hands.

By the way, in playing a lot of online Spanish 21 it seems to me the dealer has an Ace up way more often than in regular blackjack, but has a blackjack way less than regular blackjack. Just seems that way to me.

[21forme]

it seems to me the dealer has an Ace up way more often than in regular blackjack

If 1/12 is way more than 1/13, then yes.

[ShipTheCookies]

Is this right? For single deck Spanish 21, if I calculated correctly, I get:

4/48*12/47*2 = 0.04255
1/0.04255 = 23.5018 or once in about 23.5 hands.

By the way, in playing a lot of online Spanish 21 it seems to me the dealer has an Ace up way more often than in regular blackjack, but has a blackjack way less than regular blackjack. Just seems that way to me.

Yeah I miscalculated. Been too busy to fix it.

[aceside]

I believe in regular blackjack you get a blackjack about once in every 21 hands. Anyone know what the odds are in a Spanish 21 8 deck game?

Recently I've been researching Spanish 21. Let us consider an infinite Spanish 21 deck,
Card rank: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, J, Q, K, A
Card Number: 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4

Probability of an ace card: 1/12
Probability of a ten-valued card: 3/12
Probability of a blackjack: (1/12)x(3x12)x2=4.17%

[DSchles]

Recently I've been researching Spanish 21. Let us consider an infinite Spanish 21 deck,
Card rank: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, J, Q, K, A
Card Number: 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4

Probability of an ace card: 1/12
Probability of a ten-valued card: 3/12
Probability of a blackjack: (1/12)x(3x12)x2=4.17%

Close enough. But the OP asked for eight-deck, so why not show the calculation for that? 2 x (32/384) x 96/383 = 4.1775%.

Don

[Freightman]

Close enough. But the OP asked for eight-deck, so why not show the calculation for that? 2 x (32/384) x 96/383 = 4.1775%.

Don

Can’t resist.
Don, you’re wrong. Dealer gets card before players first card. Assuming dealer doesn’t doesn’t have an ace or face in the hole
2 x (32/384) x 96/382=4.1884

[DSchles]

Can’t resist.
Don, you’re wrong. Dealer gets card before players first card. Assuming dealer doesn’t doesn’t have an ace or face in the hole
2 x (32/384) x 96/382=4.1884

Surely, you jest. You don't calculate player probabilities by worrying about what the dealer's cards are. They play no role whatsoever in the calculation. You don't know what his card is when you do the math for the player BEFORE the cards are dealt.

Don

[Freightman]

Surely, you jest. You don't calculate player probabilities by worrying about what the dealer's cards are. They play no role whatsoever in the calculation. You don't know what his card is when you do the math for the player BEFORE the cards are dealt.

Don

Fine, still 382

[DSchles]

Fine, still 382

God, you're stubborn. And 100% wrong. You saw my answer. You saw Cac's. Do you REALLY want to pursue this? Argue with yourself. I'm done. And, if you have a half a brain, you will be too.

Don

[Freightman]

God, you're stubborn. And 100% wrong. You saw my answer. You saw Cac's. Do you REALLY want to pursue this? Argue with yourself. I'm done. And, if you have a half a brain, you will be too.

Don

You’ll need to explain it to me like I’m a 6 year old.
Player gets
1st of 384 cards
Dealer gets second card of 383 cards remaining
Player gets third card of 382 cards remaining
What am I missing?

Oh, and yes, I’m stubborn - part of my charm in my business career that helped me a great deal.

[iCountNTrack]

You’ll need to explain it to me like I’m a 6 year old.
Player gets
1st of 384 cards
Dealer gets second card of 383 cards remaining
Player gets third card of 382 cards remaining
What am I missing?

Oh, and yes, I’m stubborn - part of my charm in my business career that helped me a great deal.

Think about it this way, you draw two cards randomly from a shoe, what are the odds of getting a blackjack? The dealer cards are totally irrelevant because you want OVERALL probability not the probability for a given dealer upcard.
To get a BJ, you can have 10,A or A,10 that's why Calc multiplied by 2