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Thread: What Are the Odds of Getting a Blackjack in Spanish 21

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    What Are the Odds of Getting a Blackjack in Spanish 21

    I believe in regular blackjack you get a blackjack about once in every 21 hands. Anyone know what the odds are in a Spanish 21 8 deck game?

  2. #2


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    With a single deck, the odds are 1 in 27.625. So probably a bit higher then that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    I believe in regular blackjack you get a blackjack about once in every 21 hands. Anyone know what the odds are in a Spanish 21 8 deck game?
    Recently I've been researching Spanish 21. Let us consider an infinite Spanish 21 deck,
    Card rank: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, J, Q, K, A
    Card Number: 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4

    Probability of an ace card: 1/12
    Probability of a ten-valued card: 3/12
    Probability of a blackjack: (1/12)x(3x12)x2=4.17%

  4. #4
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    I used to have an infinite shoe. The landlord complained. Worse yet, it altered the Earth's orbit, among other problems. I got rid of it. Sadly, too late for the dinosaurs.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    I was waiting for some aceside math. MWP - what is the probability that you'll believe his result?

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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    I was waiting for some aceside math. MWP - what is the probability that you'll believe his result?
    I have admitted serval times here, I've never had a math degree, so you must watch my math!

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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    I have admitted serval times here, I've never had a math degree, so you must watch my math!
    While I don't like speaking for others, I suspect that most forum members would prefer not to see your math.
    What happened to your "read more, post less"?

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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    Recently I've been researching Spanish 21. Let us consider an infinite Spanish 21 deck,
    Card rank: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, J, Q, K, A
    Card Number: 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4

    Probability of an ace card: 1/12
    Probability of a ten-valued card: 3/12
    Probability of a blackjack: (1/12)x(3x12)x2=4.17%
    Close enough. But the OP asked for eight-deck, so why not show the calculation for that? 2 x (32/384) x 96/383 = 4.1775%.

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Close enough. But the OP asked for eight-deck, so why not show the calculation for that? 2 x (32/384) x 96/383 = 4.1775%.

    Don
    Can’t resist.
    Don, you’re wrong. Dealer gets card before players first card. Assuming dealer doesn’t doesn’t have an ace or face in the hole
    2 x (32/384) x 96/382=4.1884

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    I believe in regular blackjack you get a blackjack about once in every 21 hands. Anyone know what the odds are in a Spanish 21 8 deck game?
    For regular BJ in 8D we have:

    32/416*128/415*2 = 0.04745
    1/0.04745 = 21.07 or once every 21 hands.

    For Spanish 21 in 8D we have, as Don well said:

    32/384*96/383*2 = 0.04178
    1/0.04178 = 23.9375 or once every 24 hands.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cacarulo View Post
    For regular BJ in 8D we have:

    32/416*128/415*2 = 0.04745
    1/0.04745 = 21.07 or once every 21 hands.

    For Spanish 21 in 8D we have, as Don well said:

    32/384*96/383*2 = 0.04178
    1/0.04178 = 23.9375 or once every 24 hands.

    Sincerely,
    Cac
    See post 9. Every 23.875 hands

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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Can’t resist.
    Don, you’re wrong. Dealer gets card before players first card. Assuming dealer doesn’t doesn’t have an ace or face in the hole
    2 x (32/384) x 96/382=4.1884
    Surely, you jest. You don't calculate player probabilities by worrying about what the dealer's cards are. They play no role whatsoever in the calculation. You don't know what his card is when you do the math for the player BEFORE the cards are dealt.

    Don

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Surely, you jest. You don't calculate player probabilities by worrying about what the dealer's cards are. They play no role whatsoever in the calculation. You don't know what his card is when you do the math for the player BEFORE the cards are dealt.

    Don
    Fine, still 382

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