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Thread: Side counting aces in HI-LO

  1. #14
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigJer View Post
    My feeling on this is, if you are using an Ace side count then, go to a level 2 count; HiOPTII w/ASC.
    This is the opinion of a first grader ))

    Why should I switch ? If it will give me an extra 0.2% EV .

    Hi Lo + St gives me +1.5% EV. And I've been using Hi Lo for 20 years.
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

  2. #15
    Senior Member BigJer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gramazeka View Post
    This is the opinion of a first grader ))

    Why should I switch ? If it will give me an extra 0.2% EV .

    Hi Lo + St gives me +1.5% EV. And I've been using Hi Lo for 20 years.
    You better smile when you say that! Lol.

    BTW, I was a Math and Physics major in college. But only got the Physics degree.
    My Ability in Blackjack is a Gift from God!!

  3. #16
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Then if you have studied mathematics correctly, explain how you will use Hi Opt 2 + ST ? I'm waiting...
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

  4. #17
    Senior Member BigJer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gramazeka View Post
    Then if you have studied mathematics correctly, explain how you will use Hi Opt 2 + ST ? I'm waiting...
    There are training guides on it. Let me up load one.

    Edit: Can't upload it.
    Last edited by BigJer; 06-28-2022 at 01:53 PM.
    My Ability in Blackjack is a Gift from God!!

  5. #18
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Stop please )) ST its no SC )) Understand ?
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by k_c View Post
    Random probability of HiLo running count 4 with 78 cards remaining from 6 decks = .04970; true count = 2.67
    Random probability of HiLo running count 5 with 78 cards remaining from 6 decks = .04501; true count = 3.33

    Cacarulo could verify these values.

    However, end of round probabilities resulting from dealing blackjack may not be entirely random so these are probably best determined by simulation rather than combinatorial analysis.

    A simple example is HiLo running count of +4 with 308 cards remaining from 6 decks given 1 player versus dealer. Random prob=.02121. Actual prob=0 because first round will never end with RC = +4.

    As deal progresses variables such as number of players and players' strategies also affect end of round shoe composition. Just how much all of this varies end of round probs from truly random values could only realistically be determined by simulation.

    k_c
    Yes, the numbers are correct, although it is not clear what the original question was and why the probability of a Hi-Lo TC >= +3 is being discussed. I don't know what it has to do with my post about dynamic indices.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

  7. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by iCountNTrack View Post
    I would like to understand your estimation techniques, as this figure can be accurately computed using sims or combinatorial analysis
    Basically, I used the combinatorial analysis technique as developed by k_c, but I also infused my sampling techniques too. Given a fixed true count number, I sampled the TC frequencies at three different card dealing depths, 1/6, 3/6, and 5/6, and with these, it is not hard to find that the TC frequency is an exponential function of the dealing depth. Finally, I averaged all these frequencies by integrating over the exponential function.

    I am still learning from k_c.

  8. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gramazeka View Post
    Pen 4.5/6
    What does the graph say? I cannot read Russian.

  9. #22
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Turn on IQ. For example, it is obvious that the range of TC 3-4 will fall into the 4% probability. The vertical is the probability expressed in %. Horizontally, these are TC ranges.
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

  10. #23


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    Quote Originally Posted by Gramazeka View Post
    Pen 4.5/6
    I got the following frequencies for Hi-Lo, 4.5/6, TC > +3 and without removing any card:

    a) For TCs where decks remaining are calculated exactly
    4.81%

    b) For TCs where decks remaining are calculated to the nearest half
    5.50%

    If a card is removed the frequencies change.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

  11. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gramazeka View Post
    Turn on IQ. For example, it is obvious that the range of TC 3-4 will fall into the 4% probability. The vertical is the probability expressed in %. Horizontally, these are TC ranges.
    I've added up all your probabilities parts in the ranges, 3-4, 4-5, 5-6, and 6+, together and got a number of 9.1%, but it is still not clear if you mean TC>=+3 or TC>+3.

  12. #25
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    I've added up all your probabilities parts in the ranges, 3-4, 4-5, 5-6, and 6+, together and got a number of 9.1%
    Why do you need it ? LOL
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

  13. #26
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    but it is still not clear if you mean TC>=+3 or TC>+3
    This range lies between TC 3 and TC 4.
    3.1, 3.2, 3.3..3.9
    This is obvious from the graph and the figures given.
    Turn on IQ !!!
    Last edited by Gramazeka; 06-30-2022 at 10:00 AM.
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