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Thread: Dynamic Insurance

  1. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cacarulo View Post
    Well, it's true. Actually in post #43 he says that at a TC of +6.5 the advantage is 7.4%. Then in post #48 he says that the advantage is 8.3%.
    It is not clear what he meant, but 8.3% is quite close to the 8.27% that I calculated.

    Sincerely,
    Cac
    This is confusing but let me clarify. The purpose is to find out: how important is insurance in Hi-Lo card counting? In other words, what portion does insurance contribute to the player's total edge?


    When TC=+6.5, the dealer firstly draws an ace up card, and then the player edge gain from insurance is 7.4%. However, when the dealer shows an ace up card, the player edge gain from insurance is 8.3% at TC=+6.5. These two numbers look reasonably different because they are counted differently. No concern for me here.

    We also have to consider how often we encounter the insurance side bet. Insurance happens 8.9519% of the times at TC=+6.5. Averaging to each time, we obtain the average edge gain per time from insurance, 7.4%x8.9519%x0.5=0.33%. Here the 0.5 factor takes into account the 0.5 bet unit of insurance. Now, we assume the total player edge gain is 4% when TC=+6.5, and finally find that insurance produces 0.33%/4%=8.3% of the total player edge gain.


    Let me also present my second part of calculation: how important is player's blackjack in Hi-Lo card counting? I am not so confident in this part.

    When TC=0, player has 4.7% blackjacks; when TC=+6.5, player has 6.4% blackjacks. Each new blackjack gives the player a 0.5 unit edge; therefore, the player edge gain from these additional blackjacks when TC=+6.5 is 0.5x(6.4%-4.7%)=0.85%. Similar to above calculation, we find that player blackjack produces 0.85%/4%=21.3% of the total player edge gain. Correct?
    Last edited by aceside; 06-23-2022 at 08:56 PM.

  2. #67


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    This is confusing but let me clarify. The purpose is to find out: how important is insurance in Hi-Lo card counting? In other words, what portion does insurance contribute to the player's total edge?


    When TC=+6.5, the dealer firstly draws an ace up card, and then the player edge gain from insurance is 7.4%. However, when the dealer shows an ace up card, the player edge gain from insurance is 8.3% at TC=+6.5. These two numbers look reasonably different because they are counted differently. No concern for me here.

    We also have to consider how often we encounter the insurance side bet. Insurance happens 8.9519% of the times at TC=+6.5. Averaging to each time, we obtain the average edge gain per time from insurance, 7.4%x8.9519%x0.5=0.33%. Here the 0.5 factor takes into account the 0.5 bet unit of insurance. Now, we assume the total player edge gain is 4% when TC=+6.5, and finally find that insurance produces 0.33%/4%=8.3% of the total player edge gain.


    Let me also present my second part of calculation: how important is player's blackjack in Hi-Lo card counting? I am not so confident in this part.

    When TC=0, player has 4.7% blackjacks; when TC=+6.5, player has 6.4% blackjacks. Each new blackjack gives the player a 0.5 unit edge; therefore, the player edge gain from these additional blackjacks when TC=+6.5 is 0.5x(6.4%-4.7%)=0.85%. Similar to above calculation, we find that player blackjack produces 0.85%/4%=21.3% of the total player edge gain. Correct?
    First of all, what is a TC equal to +6.5 for you?
    Why didn't you choose a TC of +6 instead of +6.5 for the example?
    These responses are important because the frequency of a +6 TC is not the same as that of a +6.5 TC. The +6.5 frequency is much lower.
    If we are not talking about decimal indices, +6.5 is a possible TC within a range that goes from 6.0 to 6.99. That range corresponds to the (floored) TC bin of +6.
    Regarding the expected values at +6.5, 7.4% before the dealer shows an ace is correct. If +6.5 is with the ace up, then 8.3% is also correct.
    The exact values are as follows:

    | 6.5 | 0.00091764273437706 | 0.07467249668672199 |
    | 6.5 | 0.00083473498616494 | 0.08273895754443319 |

    As you can see, the frequencies are much lower than what you say.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

  3. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cacarulo View Post
    irst of all, what is a TC equal to +6.5 for you?
    Why didn't you choose a TC of +6 instead of +6.5 for the example?
    This number +6.5 is for convenience only. Firstly, there are 13 ranks of cards in a deck, so it is reasonable to pick 13 and 6.5 like numbers. Secondly, we cannot pick a number greater than +13 because most blackjack decisions become very nonlinear. Thirdly, I picked TC=+3.5 to guarantee the insurance EV>0. All minor reasons.

  4. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cacarulo View Post
    First of all, what is a TC equal to +6.5 for you?
    I used k_c calculation results at TC=+5 and TC=+10 and plotted a straight line and then interpolated the TC=+6.5 on that line. That is my definition of TC=+6.5.

  5. #70


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    I already gave you the answers as to how important insurance is for the Hi-Lo player. No one flat bets, so your numbers are quite meaningless in the context you present them. And, after you find out how important insurance is at TC = +6.5 (but you haven't, really), what about all the other counts??

    For the spreading card counter who employs every index imaginable at Hi-Lo, insurance alone provides almost 24% of all the gain attainable over BS from using those indices. Do you find this unimportant? What, exactly, is your point?

    Don

  6. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    For the spreading card counter who employs every index imaginable at Hi-Lo, insurance alone provides almost 24% of all the gain attainable over BS from using those indices. Do you find this unimportant? What, exactly, is your point?
    My exact point is that I disagree with you on the importance of insurance. My calculation shows that insurance provides <<8.3% of the total player's edge. However, I am not very confident with my calculation because I averaged the insurance edge over all blackjack rounds. Can somebody use CVDate to help with this?

    My another point is to seek confirmation on this: how important is player's blackjack in Hi-Lo card counting?

  7. #72


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    My exact point is that I disagree with you on the importance of insurance.
    Wow. Look at it this way (among many ways)
    If indices add 20% to 30% to counters edge and insurance comprises give or take 75% of that 20%-30%, then, forget about all other indices and enjoy the additional 15%-22.5% additional dollars that insurance provides.

    My another point is to seek confirmation on this: how important is player's blackjack in Hi-Lo card counting?
    Wow. Look at it this way (among many ways)
    We spread to beat the game. More blackjacks occur when more money is on the table. Without 3-2 on higher bets, we don’t beat the game.

  8. #73


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    My exact point is that I disagree with you on the importance of insurance. My calculation shows that insurance provides <<8.3% of the total player's edge. However, I am not very confident with my calculation because I averaged the insurance edge over all blackjack rounds. Can somebody use CVDate to help with this?

    My another point is to seek confirmation on this: how important is player's blackjack in Hi-Lo card counting?
    Would you please give me a break. I wasn't giving you my considered opinion on the subject; I was kind enough to pass along a sneak peek of research Gronbog and I have been working on for almost a year. I'm not asking you if you're happy with the results or not; I'm telling you that what I gave you were facts.

    Don

  9. #74
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    I am sorry to bother you, but I am sure you know this very well. You are definitely helpful! The weather is very nice today. I'm going outside now.

  10. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Wow. Look at it this way (among many ways)
    If indices add 20% to 30% to counters edge and insurance comprises give or take 75% of that 20%-30%, then, forget about all other indices and enjoy the additional 15%-22.5% additional dollars that insurance provides.



    Wow. Look at it this way (among many ways)
    We spread to beat the game. More blackjacks occur when more money is on the table. Without 3-2 on higher bets, we don’t beat the game.
    I noticed no helpful comments on my posts and thus carefully read into the last few posts. Actually both Don and I are correct. Don says that insurance is important among all of the HiLo deviation indices, but I say that insurance is not that important among the total player’s edge. The card counting thing is mostly about betting spread and slightly slightly about index playing.

    For a card counter like us, even if we take insurance every available hands, we still have an edge on the insurance bet anyway.

  11. #76


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    <snip>For a card counter like us, even if we take insurance every available hands, we still have an edge on the insurance bet anyway.
    aceside,

    Are you saying this is true when flat-betting?

    Dog Hand

  12. #77


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    aceside erroneously said
    but I say that insurance is not that important among the total player’s edge. The card counting thing is mostly about betting spread and slightly slightly about index playing.
    Aretha Franklin said (sang) THINK
    https://youtu.be/RTXszRHc0qs

    Lets rephrase. That reference you made to insurance and the spread on the card counting thing - on a successful insurance thing - min $25 bet saves you $25 - Max $500 bet saves you $500. Now, you’re not going to insure that $25 bet - why? - you’re to far away from strike point. You will insure that $500 bet - why? - You’re way over strike point.

    Is aceside actually suggesting that
    For a card counter like us, even if we take insurance every available hands, we still have an edge on the insurance bet anyway.
    Is aceside actually suggesting that hands justifying insurance can have wagers made at table minimum?

  13. #78


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    Frwghtman - You seem surprised. With almost 900 posts, the number of correct assertions aceside has made is less than the number of regaled ***** you have.

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