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Thread: How to bet if you know the possibilities before each hand.

  1. #27
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    How much is the possibility to lose it all?
    I've read somewhere it's about 13% in the long run. But how long is the long run?

  2. #28


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Don, the problem with your literal interpretation is that OP, or anyone for that matter will never win 2.5% more hands than they lose. I believe it’s possible to win more hands than lose only at very high counts exceeding TC5. Ties are ties and aren’t entered into this thought process excercise.
    Yes, in a shoe game, it would take about +10.

    Don

  3. #29


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    Quote Originally Posted by wax View Post
    Oh, it's much lower than i expected!
    Do you know maybe the exact variance for an 8-deck, dealer stands on all 17s, DAS?
    You ask strange questions. Do you want the variance of a hand at each true count? Or, do you want the global variance for a counter who is spreading his bets? And, if so, in what manner? Please don't ask short one- sentence questions that don't specify properly what you're looking for. I can't answer them if they're expressed like that.

  4. #30
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    Ok, the difficult staff is how this bjstat calculator calculates the edge. All others are simple.

  5. #31
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    When you have True Count on Thorp counting TC=10, how much is the bet percentage? Do you know?

  6. #32


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    Usually, every TC point changes the advantage by 0.5%
    So, a TC of 10 would give you about 5% advantage minus the house edge (say 0.5%) for a net 4.5%
    If your bankroll is $10K, you should bet $450 divided by the variance (say 1.3225) = $340 for a full Kelly bet or 13.53% RoR without replenishing your bankroll.
    If you prefer a lower RoR (say 1.83% or half Kelly), then divide the bet by 2 and you get $170
    G Man

  7. #33


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    Quote Originally Posted by G Man View Post
    Usually, every TC point changes the advantage by 0.5%
    So, a TC of 10 would give you about 5% advantage minus the house edge (say 0.5%) for a net 4.5%
    If your bankroll is $10K, you should bet $450 divided by the variance (say 1.3225) = $340 for a full Kelly bet or 13.53% RoR without replenishing your bankroll.
    If you prefer a lower RoR (say 1.83% or half Kelly), then divide the bet by 2 and you get $170
    The value of index play in the higher counts increases that edge that I would average about .7% per TC starting on a risk averse basis at about TC3 - 8 v6 for example, 8v5 and 99v7 at TC5 and 10 v 10 at TC7. Splitting 10’s (I don’t split) v4,5,6 are also of interest to some players. Proponents of QTC would expect to see higher returns.

    Although profitable, I would question the wisdom of some if these plays with those in shoestring bankrolls.

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