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Thread: How to bet if you know the possibilities before each hand.

  1. #14
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    Kelly equation takes as arguments overall advantage, lose probability and payout ratio.
    The fact that we don't know them exactly means we work approximately.
    I insist Don.

  2. #15


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    Sure, but what Don is trying to point out is that you nee the probabilities of winning/losing/pushing each possible amount, not just the probabilities of a net win/loss/push. In blackjack with insurance and surrender, DAS and SPL3 you can lose up to 8.5 times your initial bet and you can win up to 8 times your original bet, all in 1/2 bet increments. Many other casino games have multiple payouts beyond just winning or losing. For games like this, the Kelly formula is extremely difficult to solve and we're forced to use an approximation like EV / Variance.

  3. #16
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    Also a very big contradiction is that counting TC you stop rising bet on 5.5 but when the player edge rising Kelly tell us to rise bet also.

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by wax View Post
    Also a very big contradiction is that counting TC you stop rising bet on 5.5 but when the player edge rising Kelly tell us to rise bet also.
    You can keep raising your bet as much as you like. Stopping at any particular TC is simply because a) in shoe games, if you wait to make a max bet at any higher value, the frequency is so slow that you're just wasting your time, and b) if you permit yourself to bet strict Kelly, with no upper limit, you're eventually going to get thrown out of every casino in the country.

    Don

  5. #18
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    So at the removal effect edge do you think that bet=edge/1.3225 is a good approach for an 8 deck shoe?
    Has anyone calculated the push percentage for every card removal?

  6. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    You can keep raising your bet as much as you like. Stopping at any particular TC is simply because a) in shoe games, if you wait to make a max bet at any higher value, the frequency is so slow that you're just wasting your time, and b) if you permit yourself to bet strict Kelly, with no upper limit, you're eventually going to get thrown out of every casino in the country.

    Don
    I 've been told that over 5.5 TC variance is going unexpectedly high Don. Is that true?

  7. #20


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    Quote Originally Posted by wax View Post
    I 've been told that over 5.5 TC variance is going unexpectedly high Don. Is that true?
    No, just the opposite. As true counts go much higher, variance actually decreases because of the increasing number of 20-20 pushes. Just look at any of the chapter 10 charts to see this. I'm assuming that you simply mean the variance of results of a hand at TC >= +6. If, on the other hand (no pun intended!), you're speaking about your own monetary variance from increasing your bets any higher, beyond TC of +6, that's an entirely different matter. Obviously, the more you bet, the greater the variance. I'm assuming you didn't mean that, but you never know!

    Don

  8. #21
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    When I divide EV I find in the calculator http://www.bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi
    with the variance 1.31 you told me I get extremely low percentage of the bankroll. Am I doing something wrong? (8deck shoe)

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by wax View Post
    When I divide EV I find in the calculator http://www.bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi
    with the variance 1.31 you told me I get extremely low percentage of the bankroll. Am I doing something wrong? (8deck shoe)
    Not understanding your question. What, specifically, are you asking?

    Don

  10. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Not understanding your question. What, specifically, are you asking?

    Don

    At the upper left of the "Player Expected Values (in %)" there is a value witch I assume is the player edge. Is this the value I have to divide with the variance to take the bet%?

  11. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by wax View Post

    At the upper left of the "Player Expected Values (in %)" there is a value witch I assume is the player edge. Is this the value I have to divide with the variance to take the bet%?
    Yes.

    Don

  12. #25
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    Oh, it's much lower than i expected!
    Do you know maybe the exact variance for an 8-deck, dealer stands on all 17s, DAS?

  13. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    A quick comment on all of the above. The OP wasn't very clear as to exactly what he meant by 2.5% "possibility to win over losing." I know very well, via hundreds of Chapter 10 charts, what the player edge is at every TC for every number of decks and every rules set. But I took the wording literally, namely that the player would win 2.5% more hands than he would lose. Hence my response. If that isn't what the OP meant, then he should come back and clarify.

    Don
    Don, the problem with your literal interpretation is that OP, or anyone for that matter will never win 2.5% more hands than they lose. I believe it’s possible to win more hands than lose only at very high counts exceeding TC5. Ties are ties and aren’t entered into this thought process excercise.

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