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Thread: Question for Norm: Color of BJ

  1. #1


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    Question for Norm: Color of BJ

    How much does Daniel Dravoit's upgrade to KO really improve SCORE for a typical shoe game? I'm wondering if you have any data you can share.

    Also, would the indices for this style of KO be any different than KO out of the box?

    MJ

  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Haven't looked at it since it came out. His brother actually brought me the book. I don't remember the SCORE change. I think Ken Smith had some sims in the book. Not a great deal. The indices are simpler than KO's. It's the betting that's different. CVCX can Kelly optimize Dravot style betting strategies.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  3. #3


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    When I attempted to do this using CVData it increased SCORE but < 10%, however that number should be taken with a big grain of salt because I hadn't yet optimized the bet ramps. Like Norm said, small, but not nothing.

  4. #4
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    If you have CVData, but do not have a CVCX license; you can still call CVCX to obtain optimal Kelly betting. However, this doesn't work with Dravot's KO Color of BJ. That requires a CVCX sim since CVCX keeps EV and Variance data for all reasonable penetrations at once and can group the data over multiple depths and use the groupings for optimal betting calcs.

    A bit difficult to explain. For an attempt from 12 years ago, see: https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...-Based-Betting
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  5. #5


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    BennGunn,

    A 10% increase in SCORE is substantial in my opinion. Some people learn 50 extra indices for a 5% increase in SCORE. Do you find it difficult to remember how much to bet at each depth? I did not realize CVData can simulate Color of KO.

    MJ
    Last edited by MJ1; 05-24-2022 at 09:18 AM.

  6. #6


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    Norm,

    Do you think Dravoit's insurance tweak makes sense? I believe he says to ignore the dealer ace for counting purposes when making the insurance decision. I can understand why you would want to disregard it however isn't this index value based upon a simulation which factors the dealer upcard into the count? Don says index values should be used in the same manner that they were simulated.

    MJ

  7. #7
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    The sims in the book were done with CVData.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  8. #8


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    Running count insurance data using KO tags is fairly simple:

    1 deck
    Code:
    Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,1}
    Decks: 1, IRC = -4
    Insurance Data (without regard to hand comp)
    No subgroup (removals) are defined
    
    **** Player hand: x-x ****
    Cards   RC      TC ref
    
    48      -2      -2.17
    38      -1      -1.37
    20      0       0.00
    5       1       10.40
    4       0       0.00
    3       1       17.33
    2       0       0.00
    1       1       52.00
    2 decks
    Code:
    Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,1}
    Decks: 2, IRC = -8
    Insurance Data (without regard to hand comp)
    No subgroup (removals) are defined
    
    **** Player hand: x-x ****
    Cards   RC      TC ref
    
    96      -3      -1.63
    95      -2      -1.09
    63      -1      -0.83
    32      0       0.00
    7       1       7.43
    6       0       0.00
    5       1       10.40
    4       0       0.00
    3       1       17.33
    2       0       0.00
    1       1       52.00
    4 decks
    Code:
    Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,1}
    Decks: 4, IRC = -16
    Insurance Data (without regard to hand comp)
    No subgroup (removals) are defined
    
    **** Player hand: x-x ****
    Cards   RC      TC ref
    
    192     -3      -0.81
    191     -2      -0.54
    190     -3      -0.82
    140     -2      -0.74
    92      -1      -0.57
    47      0       0.00
    7       1       7.43
    6       0       0.00
    5       1       10.40
    4       0       0.00
    3       1       17.33
    2       0       0.00
    1       1       52.00
    6 decks
    Code:
    Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,1}
    Decks: 6, IRC = -24
    Insurance Data (without regard to hand comp)
    No subgroup (removals) are defined
    
    **** Player hand: x-x ****
    Cards   RC      TC ref
    
    288     -3      -0.54
    281     -4      -0.74
    222     -3      -0.70
    163     -2      -0.64
    109     -1      -0.48
    56      0       0.00
    9       1       5.78
    8       0       0.00
    7       1       7.43
    6       0       0.00
    5       1       10.40
    4       0       0.00
    3       1       17.33
    2       0       0.00
    1       1       52.00
    8 decks
    Code:
    Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,1}
    Decks: 8, IRC = -32
    Insurance Data (without regard to hand comp)
    No subgroup (removals) are defined
    
    **** Player hand: x-x ****
    Cards   RC      TC ref
    
    384     -3      -0.41
    381     -4      -0.55
    369     -5      -0.70
    310     -4      -0.67
    240     -3      -0.65
    178     -2      -0.58
    119     -1      -0.44
    61      0       0.00
    9       1       5.78
    8       0       0.00
    7       1       7.43
    6       0       0.00
    5       1       10.40
    4       0       0.00
    3       1       17.33
    2       0       0.00
    1       1       52.00
    k_c

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by k_c View Post
    Running count insurance data using KO tags is fairly simple:

    1 deck
    Code:
    Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,1}
    Decks: 1, IRC = -4
    Insurance Data (without regard to hand comp)
    No subgroup (removals) are defined
    
    **** Player hand: x-x ****
    Cards   RC      TC ref
    
    48      -2      -2.17
    38      -1      -1.37
    20      0       0.00
    5       1       10.40
    4       0       0.00
    3       1       17.33
    2       0       0.00
    1       1       52.00
    2 decks
    Code:
    Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,1}
    Decks: 2, IRC = -8
    Insurance Data (without regard to hand comp)
    No subgroup (removals) are defined
    
    **** Player hand: x-x ****
    Cards   RC      TC ref
    
    96      -3      -1.63
    95      -2      -1.09
    63      -1      -0.83
    32      0       0.00
    7       1       7.43
    6       0       0.00
    5       1       10.40
    4       0       0.00
    3       1       17.33
    2       0       0.00
    1       1       52.00
    4 decks
    Code:
    Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,1}
    Decks: 4, IRC = -16
    Insurance Data (without regard to hand comp)
    No subgroup (removals) are defined
    
    **** Player hand: x-x ****
    Cards   RC      TC ref
    
    192     -3      -0.81
    191     -2      -0.54
    190     -3      -0.82
    140     -2      -0.74
    92      -1      -0.57
    47      0       0.00
    7       1       7.43
    6       0       0.00
    5       1       10.40
    4       0       0.00
    3       1       17.33
    2       0       0.00
    1       1       52.00
    6 decks
    Code:
    Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,1}
    Decks: 6, IRC = -24
    Insurance Data (without regard to hand comp)
    No subgroup (removals) are defined
    
    **** Player hand: x-x ****
    Cards   RC      TC ref
    
    288     -3      -0.54
    281     -4      -0.74
    222     -3      -0.70
    163     -2      -0.64
    109     -1      -0.48
    56      0       0.00
    9       1       5.78
    8       0       0.00
    7       1       7.43
    6       0       0.00
    5       1       10.40
    4       0       0.00
    3       1       17.33
    2       0       0.00
    1       1       52.00
    8 decks
    Code:
    Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,1}
    Decks: 8, IRC = -32
    Insurance Data (without regard to hand comp)
    No subgroup (removals) are defined
    
    **** Player hand: x-x ****
    Cards   RC      TC ref
    
    384     -3      -0.41
    381     -4      -0.55
    369     -5      -0.70
    310     -4      -0.67
    240     -3      -0.65
    178     -2      -0.58
    119     -1      -0.44
    61      0       0.00
    9       1       5.78
    8       0       0.00
    7       1       7.43
    6       0       0.00
    5       1       10.40
    4       0       0.00
    3       1       17.33
    2       0       0.00
    1       1       52.00
    k_c
    Hmm, I think something is not right here.
    I'm going to pass you my indices so you can check them with yours.

    1) 1D, 20 cards remaining

    Code:
    +----------+----------------------------+-----+-----+---------------------+
    |   Play   |              TC            |  RC | IRC |          EV         |
    +----------+--------------+-------------+-----+-----+---------------------+
    |    Ins   |  -2.666667   |    -2/ 39   |  -1 |  -4 | 0.01868374178675136 |
    +----------+--------------+-------------+-----+-----+---------------------+
    2) 2D, 26 cards remaining

    Code:
    +----------+----------------------------+-----+-----+---------------------+
    |   Play   |              TC            |  RC | IRC |          EV         |
    +----------+--------------+-------------+-----+-----+---------------------+
    |    Ins   |  -1.625000   |    -2/ 64   |  -1 |  -8 | 0.01675762536870185 |
    +----------+--------------+-------------+-----+-----+---------------------+
    3) 4D, 52 cards remaining

    Code:
    +----------+----------------------------+-----+-----+---------------------+
    |   Play   |              TC            |  RC | IRC |          EV         |
    +----------+--------------+-------------+-----+-----+---------------------+
    |    Ins   |  -1.118280   |    -2/ 93   |  -1 | -16 | 0.00704420683992346 |
    +----------+--------------+-------------+-----+-----+---------------------+
    Sincerely,
    Cac

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cacarulo View Post
    Hmm, I think something is not right here.
    I'm going to pass you my indices so you can check them with yours.

    1) 1D, 20 cards remaining

    Code:
    +----------+----------------------------+-----+-----+---------------------+
    |   Play   |              TC            |  RC | IRC |          EV         |
    +----------+--------------+-------------+-----+-----+---------------------+
    |    Ins   |  -2.666667   |    -2/ 39   |  -1 |  -4 | 0.01868374178675136 |
    +----------+--------------+-------------+-----+-----+---------------------+
    2) 2D, 26 cards remaining

    Code:
    +----------+----------------------------+-----+-----+---------------------+
    |   Play   |              TC            |  RC | IRC |          EV         |
    +----------+--------------+-------------+-----+-----+---------------------+
    |    Ins   |  -1.625000   |    -2/ 64   |  -1 |  -8 | 0.01675762536870185 |
    +----------+--------------+-------------+-----+-----+---------------------+
    3) 4D, 52 cards remaining

    Code:
    +----------+----------------------------+-----+-----+---------------------+
    |   Play   |              TC            |  RC | IRC |          EV         |
    +----------+--------------+-------------+-----+-----+---------------------+
    |    Ins   |  -1.118280   |    -2/ 93   |  -1 | -16 | 0.00704420683992346 |
    +----------+--------------+-------------+-----+-----+---------------------+
    Sincerely,
    Cac

    I am not clear on how you get TC indicies.

    Let's go back to HiLo single deck for a moment. The first point where ins EV is positive is 47 cards remaining with a running count of +2 where probability of a ten with one ace specifically removed is .34043. With 48 cards remaining and a running count of +1 insurance is an even bet with probability of a ten = 1/3.

    I consider TC as an afterthought. If any strategy can be based on TC that's fine though.

    k_c

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