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Thread: CVCX Variance

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    CVCX Variance

    I've ran the exact same simulation a few times now, and keep getting slightly different results. I understand that this is simulation software, but shouldn't 50 million rounds find "the answer" pretty accurately? Is 50 million rounds not considered enough? It doesn't vary by more than a dollar in EV or more than a percent in RoR, but still.
    These screenshots are from the exact same sim params, I just exited the sim and ran it again, 50 million rounds, lowest count tracked -2

    https://i.imgur.com/0q4nd1x.png
    https://i.imgur.com/W2LH8lw.png
    https://i.imgur.com/20E94Xi.png

    I ran the sim again with 100 million rounds, and it seems to vary much much less, how many rounds do you guys have the software run?

  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Nope. 50 million is a very short sim. The sims included in CVCX are 20 billion. Although, that's overkill for most purposes. It depends on what you are testing.

    Comparison of betting cover changes: 400 million will give a good idea.
    Comparison of two completely different playing strategies: Depends on accuracy desired. Five to ten billion or more.
    Calculation of optimal betting ramps: 500 million will do. But more required if you want more precision with risk, etc.
    Comparisons of minor changes in indices: Many, many billions of rounds.
    Determining if a simplistic or non-counting strategy works: That determination shows up very quickly.
    Last edited by Norm; 05-14-2022 at 09:16 AM.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Oh wow, my bad. Thanks for the response and the numbers

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Those numbers are off the top of my head and are not gospel. Just to give an idea. More is better is the general rule.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Those numbers are off the top of my head and are not gospel. Just to give an idea. More is better is the general rule.
    Yes, more is better. Lately I have been using 50 billion as a base. Minimizing the standard error in calculating the SCORE is very important when comparing one system to another.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

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