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Thread: Surrender Question

  1. #14


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    No we don't. Initially I had said that we do, which was incorrect.

  2. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    No we don't. Initially I had said that we do, which was incorrect.
    I just thought about this again and got some new ideas. When counting card in hit-17 6-deck games, I surrender hard 17 vs A when TC<=+2 but stand when TC>+3. When counting card in stand-17 6-deck games, I do not have an index for the hand of hard 17 vs A.

    However, one more thing still bothers me. A few 2-deck hit-17 games offer the surrender option. So, what is the surrender index for the hand in this game? Thank you in advance!

  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    I just thought about this again and got some new ideas. When counting card in hit-17 6-deck games, I surrender hard 17 vs A when TC<=+2 but stand when TC>+3. When counting card in stand-17 6-deck games, I do not have an index for the hand of hard 17 vs A.

    However, one more thing still bothers me. A few 2-deck hit-17 games offer the surrender option. So, what is the surrender index for the hand in this game? Thank you in advance!
    Some precision here:
    In H17 games, you should Surrender 17 vs A when TC<+2 and Stand when TC =>+2

    In S17 games, you should Surrender 17 vs A when TC<-4 and Stand when TC=>-4


    For the DD H17 LS games, you Surrender 17 vs A when TC<+1 and Stand when TC=>+1

    Note: For all these decisions, there's a point (very low TC) where you will start Hitting instead of Surrendering.

    In S17 shoes: if TC <= -10
    In H17 shoes: Can't tell but a lot less than -10
    In DD H17 games: if TC <= -16
    Last edited by G Man; 05-17-2022 at 06:18 AM.
    G Man

  4. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by G Man View Post
    In S17 games, you should Surrender 17 vs A when TC<-4 and Stand when TC=>-4

    16
    I didn’t know this part. I always stood on this hand in this situation. Nice of you!

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by G Man View Post
    Some precision here:
    In H17 games, you should Surrender 17 vs A when TC<+2 and Stand when TC =>+2

    In S17 games, you should Surrender 17 vs A when TC<-4 and Stand when TC=>-4


    For the DD H17 LS games, you Surrender 17 vs A when TC<+1 and Stand when TC=>+1

    Note: For all these decisions, there's a point (very low TC) where you will start Hitting instead of Surrendering.

    In S17 shoes: if TC <= -10
    In H17 shoes: Can't tell but a lot less than -10
    In DD H17 games: if TC <= -16

    I agree.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

  6. #19


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    This is detailed data for a hand of T-7 vs. ace, 2 decks, h17, late surrender using combinatorial analysis using HiLo. It includes number of cards remaining before up card is dealt, running counts to surrender/not surrender, and a calculated reference to true count at the surrender points. It would be a bit more accurate to use number of cards remaining after up card is dealt. However my CA computes before up card so I can compute all up cards at once.

    Basically it shows for the most part to late surrender at a running count of <0 for most of the shoe and <-1 toward the end of shoe.

    Referencing true count, it shows to late surrender for an approximate range of TC >=-15 to <0 for the largest portion of the shoe.

    It also shows to late surrender for some extremely positive counts which are unlikely to be encountered.

    Code:
    T-7 v ace, 2 decks, h17, late surrender
    
    Cards
    (before
    up card)  RC                     TC ref
    
    102-100   r                      ----
    99        <0, >=1                <0, >=.53
    98        <1, >=2                <.54, >=1.07
    97        <2                     <1.08
    96-84     <1                     <.55 to <.63
    83        <0                     <0
    81        <0, >=19               <0, >=12.35
    80        <0, >=20               <0, >=13.16
    79        <0, >=21               <0, >=14.
    78-77     <0, >=22               <0, >=14.86 to 15.05
    76        <0, >=23               <0, >=15.95
    75-74     <0, >=24               <0, >=16.86 to 17.10
    73        <-30, >=-23, <0, >=25  <-21.67, >=-16.61 to <0, >=18.06
    72        >=-22, <0, >=25        >=-16.11 to <0, >=18.31
    71        >=-21, <0, >=26        >=-15.60 to <0, >=19.31
    70        >=-21, <0, >=27        >=-15.83 to <0, >=20.35
    69        >=-20, <0, >=27        >=-15.29 to <0, >=20.65
    68        >=-20, <0, >=28        >=-15.52 to <0, >=21.73
    67-66     >=-19, <0, >=28        (>=-14.97, >=-15.20) to <0, (>=22.06, >=22.40)
    65-64     >=-18, <0, >=29        (>=-14.63, >=-14.86) to <0, (>=23.56, >=23.94)
    63        >=-18, <0, >=30        >=15.10 to <0, >=25.16
    62-61     >=-17, <0, >=30        (>=-14.49, >=-14.73) to <0, (>=25.57, >=26.)
    60        >=-17, <0, >=31        >=-14.98 to <0, >=27.32
    59-58     >=-16, <0, >=31        (>=-14.34, >=-14.60) to <0, (>=27.79, >=28.28)
    57        >=-16, <0, >=32        >=-14.86 to <0, >=29.72
    56        >=-15, <0, >=32        >=-14,18 to <0, >=30.25
    55-53     >=-15, <0, >=33        (>=-14.44, >=-14.72, >=-15.)
                                          to <0, (>=31.78, >=32.28, >=33.)
    52        >=-14, <0, >=34        >=14.27 to <0, >=34,67
    51-50     >=-14, <0, >=35        (>=-14.56, >=-14.86) to <0, (>=36.40, >=37.14)
    49        >=-13, <0, >=38        >=-14.08 to <0, >=41.17
    48-46     >=-13, <0              (>=-14.38, >=-14.70, >=-15.02) to <0
    45-42     >=-12, <0              (>=-14.18, >=-14.51, >=-14.86, >=-15.22) to <0
    41-38     >=-11, <0              (>=-14.30, >=-14.67, >=-15.05, >=-15.46) to <0
    37-36     >=-10, <0              (>=-14.44, >=-14.86) to <0
    35-34     >=-10, <-1             (>=-15.29, >=-15.76) to (<-1.53, <-1.58)
    33-30     >=-9, <-1              (>=-14.63, >=-15.10, >=-15.60, >=-16.14)
                                          to (<-1.63, <-1.68, <-1.73, <-1.79)
    29-26     >=-8, <-1              (>=-14.85, >=-15.41, >=-16., >=-16.64)
                                          to (<-1.86, <-1.93, <-2., <-2.08)
    25-22     >=-7, <-1              (>=-15.17, >=-15.83, >=-16.55, >=-17.33)
                                          to (<-2.17, <-2.26, <-2.36, <-2.48)
    21-17     >=-6, <-1              (>=-15.60, >=-16.42, >=-17.33, >=-18.35, >=-19.5)
                                          to (<-2.6, <-2.74, <-2.89, <-3.06, <-3.25)
    16-12     >=-5, <-1              (>=-17.33, >=-18.57, >=-20., >=-21.67, >=-23.64)
                                          to (<-3.47, <-3.71, <-4., <-4.33, <-4.73)
    11-9      >=-4, <0               (>=-20.80, >=-23.11, >=-26.) to <0
    8-7       >=-4, <1               (>=-29.71, >=-34.67) to (<7.43, <8.67)
    k_c

  7. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by k_c View Post
    This is detailed data for a hand of T-7 vs. ace, 2 decks, h17, late surrender using combinatorial analysis using HiLo. It includes number of cards remaining before up card is dealt, running counts to surrender/not surrender, and a calculated reference

    k_c
    Wonderful work! I will use RC for this hand decision based on your results, but I found a tiny typo in this part of your code. Shouldn’t the TC be >=-14.27 to <0 ? Can you confirm? See below

    “52 >=-14, <0, >=34 >=14.27 to <0, >=34,67”

    It seems to me a minus sign is missing in front of the number 14.27.
    Last edited by aceside; 05-18-2022 at 07:06 AM.

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    However, one more thing still bothers me. A few 2-deck hit-17 games offer the surrender option. So, what is the surrender index for the hand in this game? Thank you in advance!
    Just a reminder that we are talking about the situation where you can only surrender or stand.

    For a DD H17 game:

    • Always surrender 16 or less vs 8, 9, T and A (same as the shoe game)
    • Surrender 17 vs T at TC >= 13 (otherwise stand)
    • Surrender 17 vs A at TC < 1 (otherwise stand)

    Notice that 17 vs A is a reverse index.

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    Just a reminder that we are talking about the situation where you can only surrender or stand.

    For a DD H17 game:

    • Always surrender 16 or less vs 8, 9, T and A (same as the shoe game)
    • Surrender 17 vs T at TC >= 13 (otherwise stand)
    • Surrender 17 vs A at TC < 1 (otherwise stand)

    Notice that 17 vs A is a reverse index.
    Did you mean 17 v T as a reverse index?

    Sincerely,
    Cac

  10. #23


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cacarulo View Post
    Did you mean 17 v T as a reverse index?
    No.

    Don

  11. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    No.

    Don
    No? Does that mean he didn't mean that? Or does it mean that 17vT is not reverse?

    Cac

  12. #25


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    Wonderful work! I will use RC for this hand decision based on your results, but I found a tiny typo in this part of your code. Shouldn’t the TC be >=-14.27 to <0 ? Can you confirm? See below

    “52 >=-14, <0, >=34 >=14.27 to <0, >=34,67”

    It seems to me a minus sign is missing in front of the number 14.27.
    Yes, there should be a minus sign. Input is 52 cards remaining before up card is dealt and input hand is T-7. After up card 51 cards remain and LS RC index turned out to be -14 for up card of ace and hand of T-7. TC = -14*52/51 = -14.27. In general TC = 52*RC/(cards remaining).

    k_c

  13. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cacarulo View Post
    No? Does that mean he didn't mean that? Or does it mean that 17vT is not reverse?

    Cac
    It means, no, he didn't mean 17 vs. T as a reverse index. 17 vs. A is the reverse index.

    Don

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