Bankroll vs Min Bet

[pbj]

So I am so new to playing bj and have very limited funds and am really just doing this is as a hobby, but I am learning all the time. My limited bankroll tends to stay under 1k (most of the time I can go with $200 for a night).The casino I go to has $10 or $15 tables.

I read somewhere that you should really be playing with base bets 1/1000th your bank roll, i.e for me 10-15k.

I am just curious, and probably overthinking, there is probably very little chance of building, with wins, up to the 10k bank roll because my initial buy in was ever only $200, is this correct thinking? I mean variance would always wipe.

My second question is since I keep adding 100-200 to my bank roll, will it be similar when I have put in a total of 10k? or am I just spinning wheels because I keep start with a $200 bank roll and odds of failure are so high?

[Gramazeka]

Help for you-

https://www.blackjackinfo.com/commun...uestions.9666/

[Intermediate]

PBJ:

If you are bringing only $200 with you each night, then yes, I would guess it will be very hard to build up your bank, due to variance, assuming, you are playing correctly/accurately. You haven't specified how many decks and what the rules are at your casino, plus your counting system (Hi-Lo?), whether you are using both betting and playing strategies, are you wonging, your spread, etc. Your risk of trip ruin (tapping out your trip cash) assuming you are bringing only $200, is very high, assuming you are spreading 1-16 (which will be necessary gain an advantage on 6D). Your risk of Trip Ruin will decrease if you bring all $1000, and your overall Risk-of-Ruin will decrease if your Bankroll gets to $10,000. You can analyze details of various scenarios on CVCX.

My advice would be to practice at home until your bankroll is at least $3,000.

[pbj]

So I have been counting using Hi-Lo, bet spread almost non-existent because of low bank roll, mostly starting at min bet and adding 5 for each tc 2 and over, working on deviation.

I guess mostly the question I had is does the variance work out if I went with $200 for 15 different days (a total investment of 3k) or saving the 3k and going once.

The casino I go has 6 decks, hits soft 17, double any, only 1 card on split As, no surrender, split up to 4 times all others, 3:2 blackjack, non-continuous shuffle, penetration down to usually less than 1 deck

[Gramazeka]

So I have been counting using Hi-Lo, bet spread almost non-existent because of low bank roll, mostly starting at min bet and adding 5 for each tc 2 and over, working on deviation.

I guess mostly the question I had is does the variance work out if I went with $200 for 15 different days (a total investment of 3k) or saving the 3k and going once.

The casino I go has 6 decks, hits soft 17, double any, only 1 card on split As, no surrender, split up to 4 times all others, 3:2 blackjack, non-continuous shuffle, penetration down to usually less than 1 deck

https://www.blackjackinfo.com/commun...small-br.5655/

[Norm]

Gram, I really don't see much value in that fifteen-year-old thread.

[Gramazeka]

Gram, I really don't see much value in that fifteen-year-old thread.

Time and term do not affect the theory. I always liked Sonny and Tarzan's posts

[Intermediate]

pbj

Your variance is driven by your bets and the total number of rounds you play regardless of the number of trips and the amount of money you bring . Comparing your first case of a $200 trip roll, 15 trips, spreading $10-$50, and playing for one hour on each trip , versus a single trip with a $3000 trip roll, your Standard Deviation will be proportional to the square root of the number of rounds. The difference is in the first case you will have played 15 times the number of rounds compared to your single trip so your 15 trip Standard deviation will be the sqrt(15) times more than your single trip (all other things being equal).

The difference between your scenarios is your risk of trip ruin is lower with a $3000 trip roll, and you can balance your risk with an increase in spread. The increase in spread will improve your EV. Overall it gives you a better path towards building your bankroll.

[Green21]

Pbj, I’ve had days where I only needed my initial $200 buy in and cashed out $2k.. It’s rare but anything is possible with one small sample. With that being said you really are wasting your time if your only bringing $200 with you.

[pbj]

Intuitively it makes sense that going with $200 fifteen times does not provide the same chance of ruin a going 1 time with 3000 but I wanted to confirm.

[pbj]

Pbj, I’ve had days where I only needed my initial $200 buy in and cashed out $2k.. It’s rare but anything is possible with one small sample. With that being said you really are wasting your time if your only bringing $200 with you.

I have not been that fortunate yet, I have gone once with 200 and built it to 1000 only to lose it over the course of additional trips

But that is part of the issue with small bank rolls is if 200 can swing up 1000, then I should expect to lose that 1000, because my initial investment is really 200 and not the 1000. So what is the tipping point?

Like take this example:
Inital Investment $1000.00
Variance Swing for this example (completely made up) $1000.00 plus/minus
I happen to win $1000 so now I have $2000.00

Next trip, is my initial investment (for which you base variance on) still $1000 or is it now $2000?

I know I way overthink things but it's how my brain works.

[pbj]

pbj

Your variance is driven by your bets and the total number of rounds you play regardless of the number of trips and the amount of money you bring . Comparing your first case of a $200 trip roll, 15 trips, spreading $10-$50, and playing for one hour on each trip , versus a single trip with a $3000 trip roll, your Standard Deviation will be proportional to the square root of the number of rounds. The difference is in the first case you will have played 15 times the number of rounds compared to your single trip so your 15 trip Standard deviation will be the sqrt(15) times more than your single trip (all other things being equal).

The difference between your scenarios is your risk of trip ruin is lower with a $3000 trip roll, and you can balance your risk with an increase in spread. The increase in spread will improve your EV. Overall it gives you a better path towards building your bankroll.

This is very interesting to me. So it looks like the risk is higher the more I go, which makes since. Having the bigger bank roll means I can mitigate the risk better, especially by going once instead of 15 times. Thanks for this info.

[pbj]

https://www.blackjackinfo.com/commun...small-br.5655/

This was a very interesting thread, gave me a lot to think about.