Probability BJ AP is ahead after 1,000 hands

[drunk]

.
what is the probability that a BJ AP will be ahead after 1,000 hands - employing just Hi/Lo and Basic - not considering the amount - just whether or not he is up after all of those hands

for 6 deck 4.5/6 S17 DAS Play all 1-12

I don't have the math chops to figure this out

from my own experience my guesstimate is that he will be ahead about 75% of the time after 1,000 hands

is that about correct_________?______________thanks


.

[aceside]

I just guess, probably 51%.

[Norm]

By basic do you mean no indices? 54% With Ill18: 56%

[Freightman]

Some interesting stats for the decent basic strategist

https://cdcgaming.com/commentary/get...-at-blackjack/

[drunk]

By basic do you mean no indices? 54% With Ill18: 56%

yes, I did use quite a few indices - but not all of the Ill18 - it was a long time ago - hard to remember

I'm very surprised by your answer -

my experience for a very long time was that close to 2 out of 3 times I would leave AC ahead after playing for about 14 hours - casino and table hopping

I think it was a little less than 1,000 hands - that's why I estimated 75% instead of my actual experience which was closer to 67%

I don't really know how many hands it was - I didn't play on weekends - so it was a high no. per hour

oh, almost forgot - I would leave the table if the true count went negative by a certain % - so it wasn't actually play all

I used to head to AC one day a week for about 6 years - I made about 300 trips - 90s

.

[151Proof]

Real life and probability can be so much different from each other. One time I was about $7000 in the hole playing 25min dollar BJ over a period of time, but it turned around and I was from then on on the plus side never to go below ground.

I shot $25.00 craps over a whole year at one casino and ended up $2000.00 ahead. That was pass line and max free odds (3-4-5) only.

[Freightman]

what is the probability that a BJ AP will be ahead after 1,000 hands

my guesstimate is that he will be ahead about 75% of the time after 1,000 hands

*My worst streak - a 3 month 60k downturn - never ahead over a defined 10 hour stretch or rolling 10 hour stretch. I played a lot in those days

My best streak - a 3 month 84k upturn - never down over any defined or rolling 10 hour stretch. I played a lot in those days. In this and above scenario, I played a lot of local high stakes.

I don’t keep accurate records anymore - I believe I haven’t been down over any defined or rolling 10 hour stretch for a very long time. I don’t play as much anymore by a large margin and play tighter spreads locally with excellent hourlies above sim. I know I’m better than I’ve ever been.

*A word of caution. This game requires among other things - a clear head and positive outlook. The downturn described was only part of the story. I was never winning on the cards I had. It was truly worse than it had to be and literally started as soon I was told I needed serious surgery and to get my affairs in order. I have no idea how much that negative outlook cost me.

[DSchles]

what is the probability that a BJ AP will be ahead after 1,000 hands - employing just Hi/Lo and Basic - not considering the amount - just whether or not he is up after all of those hands

Read the conditions in the text, but see BJA3, page 21, Table 2.2, for some interesting values.

Don

[aceside]

I researched this question by simulation. Here are the results:
1. For a 6-deck S17 DAS sur 75% pen, bet 1/2/4/8/12 at TC=0/+1/+2/+3/+4, player wins and ties 55.6% of the time.

2. For a 6-deck S17 DAS non-sur 75% pen, bet 1/2/4/8/12 at TC=0/+1/+2/+3/+4, player wins and ties 54.0% of the time.

[sondjata]

my experience for a very long time was that close to 2 out of 3 times I would leave AC ahead after playing for about 14 hours - casino and table hopping I think it was a little less than 1,000 hands - that's why I estimated 75% instead of my actual experience which was closer to 67% .

Variance happens.