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Thread: Quality degradation

  1. #1


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    Quality degradation

    Norm, since when putting good numbers is a degradation in quality?
    DD 3v2 V 5 or 6 is the proper play at specific times like mentioned.
    What's wrong with that?

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat View Post
    Norm, since when putting good numbers is a degradation in quality?
    DD 3v2 V 5 or 6 is the proper play at specific times like mentioned.
    What's wrong with that?
    Secretariat,

    Just because a play is +EV does not mean it is the EV-maximizing play. For example, doubling down on a BJ vs. a 10 is +EV, but standing is by far the better option.

    As I mentioned in the long-ago 2013 post that has the Dealer Bust Rate vs. TC for each upcard, I performed the study for the purpose of analyzing "dealer bust" sidebets where the bet is placed after the dealer's upcard is revealed.

    Also, please note that the thread to which you are referring was not closed by Norm but rather by iCountNTrack. Norm gets enough grief without being blamed for the decisions of others.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    Secretariat,

    Just because a play is +EV does not mean it is the EV-maximizing play. For example, doubling down on a BJ vs. a 10 is +EV, but standing is by far the better option.

    As I mentioned in the long-ago 2013 post that has the Dealer Bust Rate vs. TC for each upcard, I performed the study for the purpose of analyzing "dealer bust" sidebets where the bet is placed after the dealer's upcard is revealed.

    Also, please note that the thread to which you are referring was not closed by Norm but rather by iCountNTrack. Norm gets enough grief without being blamed for the decisions of others.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand
    Ho I know it wasn't Norm. Turned out I was right. ICNT wanted to throw that thread to yellow. He decided to close it instead. It seems every other time he shows up he mentions the disadvantage forum. As far as I know, Norm manages this place.

    That's why I asked him in this new thread. 21forme was right in his post. My numbers were right. How can ICNT an administrator of this forum, talk about degradation when my numbers are correct and he knows it? Sounds like voodoo to me. Plus he refuses to discuss and slams the door. That's a shame. I would never run my business that way but this is not my business. If we can't discuss correct numbers here, what's the point?

    Dog Hand you are ALWAYS helpful and I appreciate that.

  4. #4
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Just because the dealer bust rate is over 50% does not mean it is the correct play. The dlr bust rate is the same for hitting and doubling. I didn't see any calculations that indicated that DD and ending up with a stiff with twice as high a bet surmounted the option of hitting multiple times, not even counting risk aversion. Even if I had, performing such mental gymnastics at the table instead of using index tables makes no sense to me.

    If the shortstop snags a ball, he does not go through the calculations of where to throw the ball depending on the number of outs and position of runners. He knows this before stepping on the field as he has prepared himself in advance.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  5. #5


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    The irony is that I used a tool recommended by Don to get the numbers. ICNT didn't like the correct numbers and radically closed the thread. By doing so, it seems ICNT overrided you Norm. What the hell is going on? Looking back, yes, it was a yellow threat Norm.
    Maybe you should explain how you guys work.


    OK, let's go somewhere else. Page 260 Professional blackjack, 4D H17. Wong gives +12 and +13 for the indices of 32v5 and 32v6.
    Again Norm. Why being so stiff about correct numbers and close a thread (Icnt) not you) ? THAT DOES NOT MAKE ANY SENSE AT ALL.
    I invested a huge 5 seconds of my life to learn those 2 basic indices and that can be refined.

    I have a theory about this allergy to the term "dealer break". Did Jerry get so badly under your (the group) skin? Nobody talked about him until ICNT brought this up in his last sentence. It really was not necessary.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat View Post
    The irony is that I used a tool recommended by Don to get the numbers. ICNT didn't like the correct numbers and radically closed the thread. By doing so, it seems ICNT overrided you Norm. What the hell is going on? Looking back, yes, it was a yellow threat Norm.
    Maybe you should explain how you guys work.


    OK, let's go somewhere else. Page 260 Professional blackjack, 4D H17. Wong gives +12 and +13 for the indices of 32v5 and 32v6.
    Again Norm. Why being so stiff about correct numbers and close a thread (Icnt) not you) ? THAT DOES NOT MAKE ANY SENSE AT ALL.
    I invested a huge 5 seconds of my life to learn those 2 basic indices and that can be refined.

    I have a theory about this allergy to the term "dealer break". Did Jerry get so badly under your (the group) skin? Nobody talked about him until ICNT brought this up in his last sentence. It really was not necessary.
    So let's look at this gem of yours

    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat View Post
    Now, with 32v5 or 32v6, many scenarios would dictate to double down. Don't even need to be at TC12
    For example at DD, H17, TC7 with one extra 7, one extra 8 and one extra 9 at the 52 card mark, dealer bust rate becomes 54%. Voodoo alert, reference AGAIN to dealer bust rate
    DD become the better play by 2% and 1% over hitting and it increases significantly as the TC goes up. Voodoo alert - spouting nonsense without actual reference
    At TC 12, normal 789s the Dealer bust rate goes up to 58% and 57%. DD is the superior play by 8% against 5 and by 5% against 6. Voodoo alert, talk about dealer bust rate with an overlay of TC AND normal distribution of 7,8,9
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    Chance favors the prepared mind

  7. #7
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    >The thread was clearly going off the rails.
    >It was not a yellow threat.
    >With due respect to Stanford, I would not trust a fringe index generated on a 1975 era PC. Braun generated Hi-Opt II indices on a multimillion dollar IBM 7044 mainframe and did not have an index for that hand.
    >If you spent five seconds learning those indexes, go ahead and use them if you wish. But, hyping the usefulness of one overall stat that is not used for index generation when an impressionable member is making it sound like this is of general value is not good.
    >The correct EV-max index for 3,2v5 is +14. RA index, which gains the most money, is +15. That count occurs in about one in 100,000 hands for all possible hands. Less than one in a million for that hand at that count. +12 DD with a max bet, which you would be using at that count, would be an error.
    >I have been spending ten hours a day trying to add new functionality to beat new rules and am under constant interruption. I have no time for this squabbling.

    325.jpg
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  8. #8


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    What I didn't include in my anecdote, which I can't now because the thread was closed for no rational reason, is this was a DD game, last had of the deck and all 8 aces were already played. Under those conditions, I belive it was the correct play. Norm, can you run the chart again with a custom deck composition, with no aces remaining?

  9. #9
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    I'm trying to get some work done. I'm certainly not going to take the time to fulfill a request made in a post that starts with an insult to a moderator.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  10. #10


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    The only insult I see is from a moderator (not you Norm) telling me that my post is stupid.
    My numbers are correct.

    Now, Cat lover ICNT, check your CA(s) and let us know what you get for TC7 23v5 and 23v6 at the 52 card mark
    Deck compo is
    33333555/18/4
    It should say Double down is the correct move.

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