See the top rated post in this thread. Click here

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 18

Thread: Soft 18 vs. 2

  1. #1


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    Soft 18 vs. 2

    Hi all,

    I'm interested in anyone's opinion on playing soft 18 vs. 2 for a 6 deck shoe, S17 and double any two cards, hi-lo count.

    I have all my indices worked using risk averse indices, I'm more worried about keeping my already high ROR as low as possible than I am of increased win rate, but of course sometimes this means taking risks where greater chance of profits lay.

    Playing a 1-10 spread with max bet at +8

    So for this one CVDATA never generates an index other than double at +1, this one I have a hard time getting my head around mentally, especially when my max bet is out there and the heart is pumping.

    I've been enjoying learning these strategies lately and putting them into practice, and I'm working hard to think mathematically instead of emotionally, which I'm generally pretty good at, except for this one.

    It seems +1 is both EV maximising and ideal risk-averse index, so it should be a no brainer, but in my mind even at high counts, the dealer still need ANOTHER 10 after pulling one, and after me pulling one on third base, seems sketchy.

    I've run countless index generations and sims.

    I know the maths is there, but still wondering if anyone has successfully played this one any different or they stick to the above rules. I challenge anyone to make me feel better about putting that extra chip down.


    Cheers.

  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    The mote in God's eye
    Posts
    11,984
    Blog Entries
    59


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    There is an old belief that you should assume the dealer will draw a ten. Of course, it's nonsense. The dealer can bust in other ways. Or, the dealer can simply fail to beat you. Three cards actually improve your hand and four have no effect on your hand.

    chart Soft Double Down - A7 v 2.jpg
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  3. #3


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Three cards improve your hand but two of those three are depleted at high counts where this matters most, of course then there's also a higher chance of the dealer busting, but there could be quite a few neutral cards left too when using a standard hi-low count and all of those neutral cards would most likely beat you if they follow a dealers 10 unless on the off chance you did improve.

    I know it's correct and I'm certainly not arguing it, I just really hate this one. Looking at the report EV is minimal on this one anyway at the more common counts and it really doesn't change the overall picture much I guess. I find it an interesting one though.

  4. #4
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    The mote in God's eye
    Posts
    11,984
    Blog Entries
    59


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Tell you the truth, I don't spend a lot of time trying to logic out an index in my mind. When I get a chip installed in my head; perhaps I'll change.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  5. #5


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Tell you the truth, I don't spend a lot of time trying to logic out an index in my mind. When I get a chip installed in my head; perhaps I'll change.
    Funny you mention this, that's exactly the cusp of the problem, people always try to "reason" why is an index so, which really challenges at heart the concept of an index, which is a clever/convenient way that works with human brains to condense a multivariate problem into a simple single variate (albeit with a cost to expectation value of course).
    Chance favors the prepared mind

  6. #6
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    The mote in God's eye
    Posts
    11,984
    Blog Entries
    59


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Ahh, well put. Just finished watching an episode of Downton Abbey. Plans can go astray when a variable is overlooked.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  7. #7


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Duc939 View Post
    It seems +1 is both EV maximising and ideal risk-averse index,
    No, that's not true. In fact, as your bet gets progressively higher as a percentage of your total bank, up to, say, 4%, the risk-averse index gets as high as +7.

    Don

  8. #8


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    When I get a chip installed in my head;
    Didn't that occur when you were vaccinated?

  9. #9


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    No, that's not true. In fact, as your bet gets progressively higher as a percentage of your total bank, up to, say, 4%, the risk-averse index gets as high as +7.

    Don
    So could you have a situation where the TC is somewhat above +1, and let's say you over-bet relative to the optimal bet ramp (for whatever reason), then you are dealt A7 v 2, and at that point it might be the correct play to stand rather than double?

  10. #10


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by bejammin075 View Post
    So could you have a situation where the TC is somewhat above +1, and let's say you over-bet relative to the optimal bet ramp (for whatever reason), then you are dealt A7 v 2, and at that point it might be the correct play to stand rather than double?

    Yes.

    Don

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. DD on Soft 21
    By gutshot in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 38
    Last Post: 09-26-2016, 02:18 PM
  2. Soft 12
    By Rainmaker in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 10-13-2013, 06:19 AM
  3. bill: soft 18
    By bill in forum Blackjack Main
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 03-15-2005, 02:09 PM
  4. Ring: soft 17
    By Ring in forum Las Vegas Everything
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 02-19-2003, 02:51 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.