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Thread: Soft 18 vs. 2

  1. #1


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    Soft 18 vs. 2

    Hi all,

    I'm interested in anyone's opinion on playing soft 18 vs. 2 for a 6 deck shoe, S17 and double any two cards, hi-lo count.

    I have all my indices worked using risk averse indices, I'm more worried about keeping my already high ROR as low as possible than I am of increased win rate, but of course sometimes this means taking risks where greater chance of profits lay.

    Playing a 1-10 spread with max bet at +8

    So for this one CVDATA never generates an index other than double at +1, this one I have a hard time getting my head around mentally, especially when my max bet is out there and the heart is pumping.

    I've been enjoying learning these strategies lately and putting them into practice, and I'm working hard to think mathematically instead of emotionally, which I'm generally pretty good at, except for this one.

    It seems +1 is both EV maximising and ideal risk-averse index, so it should be a no brainer, but in my mind even at high counts, the dealer still need ANOTHER 10 after pulling one, and after me pulling one on third base, seems sketchy.

    I've run countless index generations and sims.

    I know the maths is there, but still wondering if anyone has successfully played this one any different or they stick to the above rules. I challenge anyone to make me feel better about putting that extra chip down.


    Cheers.

  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    There is an old belief that you should assume the dealer will draw a ten. Of course, it's nonsense. The dealer can bust in other ways. Or, the dealer can simply fail to beat you. Three cards actually improve your hand and four have no effect on your hand.

    chart Soft Double Down - A7 v 2.jpg
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Three cards improve your hand but two of those three are depleted at high counts where this matters most, of course then there's also a higher chance of the dealer busting, but there could be quite a few neutral cards left too when using a standard hi-low count and all of those neutral cards would most likely beat you if they follow a dealers 10 unless on the off chance you did improve.

    I know it's correct and I'm certainly not arguing it, I just really hate this one. Looking at the report EV is minimal on this one anyway at the more common counts and it really doesn't change the overall picture much I guess. I find it an interesting one though.

  4. #4
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Tell you the truth, I don't spend a lot of time trying to logic out an index in my mind. When I get a chip installed in my head; perhaps I'll change.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Tell you the truth, I don't spend a lot of time trying to logic out an index in my mind. When I get a chip installed in my head; perhaps I'll change.
    Funny you mention this, that's exactly the cusp of the problem, people always try to "reason" why is an index so, which really challenges at heart the concept of an index, which is a clever/convenient way that works with human brains to condense a multivariate problem into a simple single variate (albeit with a cost to expectation value of course).
    Chance favors the prepared mind

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Ahh, well put. Just finished watching an episode of Downton Abbey. Plans can go astray when a variable is overlooked.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Duc939 View Post
    It seems +1 is both EV maximising and ideal risk-averse index,
    No, that's not true. In fact, as your bet gets progressively higher as a percentage of your total bank, up to, say, 4%, the risk-averse index gets as high as +7.

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    When I get a chip installed in my head;
    Didn't that occur when you were vaccinated?

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    No, that's not true. In fact, as your bet gets progressively higher as a percentage of your total bank, up to, say, 4%, the risk-averse index gets as high as +7.

    Don
    So could you have a situation where the TC is somewhat above +1, and let's say you over-bet relative to the optimal bet ramp (for whatever reason), then you are dealt A7 v 2, and at that point it might be the correct play to stand rather than double?

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    Quote Originally Posted by bejammin075 View Post
    So could you have a situation where the TC is somewhat above +1, and let's say you over-bet relative to the optimal bet ramp (for whatever reason), then you are dealt A7 v 2, and at that point it might be the correct play to stand rather than double?

    Yes.

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    No, that's not true. In fact, as your bet gets progressively higher as a percentage of your total bank, up to, say, 4%, the risk-averse index gets as high as +7.

    Don
    Hmm that's interesting as the risk averse indices generated using CVDATA do not take your betting amount into consideration, only the count at which your max bet occurs. I know the risk averse pre-sim uses whichever betting strategy is selected under 'standard sim', but there is no means to change this under the CVIndex sim and I have read on here it has no bearing on the index generated by the program. Later I will try a large over-betting type betting strategy for the pre-sim and see if it differs at all.

    Also I understand people saying don't overthink indices but as I stated it's just this one that doesn't sit right with me personally and my risk tolerance. I only see those high counts rarely with the one table that operates at my local casino and to risk losing double my wager by worsening a soft 18 with my bankroll....I rather not. I rather double the soft 17 since it needs to be a hit anyway, so I'll stick with that index and play instead.

  12. #12
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Duc939 View Post
    Hmm that's interesting as the risk averse indices generated using CVDATA do not take your betting amount into consideration
    It does; but not in the manner you suggest. The pre-sim does not use a betting strategy. It is only used to generate EV and variance per count when flat betting. RA index generation uses these to take into account Kelly optimal betting when calculating RA indices. That is, RA index calculation assumes that you will apply Kelly betting.

    Having said that, when you call CVCX from CVData, it will generate optimal bets. But, it only uses the Kelly formulas as a seed, a start to calculate optimal bets. That would be enough if we could bet exactly to the penny. But, if we want to bet rational amounts, like $10, $25, $50, etc., instead of rainbow chip stacks like $14, $23, $68, then we need to go further. We could just round those numbers. But, that will not always provide the highest SCORE. That requires more work.
    Last edited by Norm; 02-21-2022 at 06:32 AM.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    It does; but not in the manner you suggest. The pre-sim does not use a betting strategy. It is only used to generate EV and variance per count when flat betting. RA index generation uses these to take into account Kelly optimal betting when calculating RA indices. That is, RA index calculation assumes that you will apply Kelly betting.

    Having said that, when you call CVCX from CVData, it will generate optimal bets. But, it only uses the Kelly formulas as a seed, a start to calculate optimal bets. That would be enough if we could bet exactly to the penny. But, if we want to bet rational amounts, like $10, $25, $50, etc., instead of rainbow chip stacks like $14, $23, $68, then we need to go further. We could just round those numbers. But, that will not always provide the highest SCORE. That requires more work.
    OK so that leaves me with two questions if you can help out.

    1. If I'm not betting anywhere near the kelly betting values are my RA indices still worthwhile or are they potentially flat out incorrect? (referring of course only to the ones that are quite different to the max EV indices)

    2. Don mentioned if betting larger amounts relative to your bankroll the RA index for soft 18 vs 2 goes up, is there anyway to gather this info from CVDATA?

    Thanks.

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