Started questioning does the card counting really work

[sp2022bj]

Hi,


I became interested in Blackjack and card counting a little while ago - learned from wizardofodds.com and blackjackapprenticeship.com, read books by Dr. Thorp, Lance Humble and Peter Griffin; practiced basic strategy and card counting at home and visited casino in Louisiana a couple of times, but ended up losing money all the time. As I was aware of the "law of large number" and being a full time worker, I wanted to find out how many trials (hands) do I need to play in order to generate some meaningful gain, and whether that many number of casino visit is feasible for me or not. Therefore, I wrote a python script which includes basic strategy, playing deviation (Illustrious 18), card counting and 1 to 8 bet spread strategy. I am providing the Google Colab link below. To my surprise, no matter how many number of trials I ran (Most common streak I ran was 1 million hands. Assuming that casino deals in average of 40 hands/hour, 1 million hand is 25,000 hrs of Blackjack play), my script ended up losing money overall. There are localized streaks of gains, but the overall result is loss. I wonder if anyone else has similar real or virtual (simulated) advantage play experience of losses after losses. My script sort of broke my heart and I am wondering whether I should even think about casino visit counting cards, and been thinking is variance in nature more dominant than we would like to think.


Link to code (written in Python) in Google Colab:
https://colab.research.google.com/dr...oM?usp=sharing

Here is a set of example where I ran one set with playing deviation and another set without playing deviation. Each set contains 100 streaks of 10,000 hands/streak, i.e. 1,000,000 hands total. The screenshots of the bankroll and the game data of each hand is saved under:
https://drive.google.com/drive/folde...2Z?usp=sharing
As you can see, even with card counting, regarding whether deviation is on or off, player can expect to lose significant number of hands. Implementation of playing deviation improves the odd to some degree. But, nowhere near the rainbow or sunshine. I looked at the txt files of game data (saved in link above), where it shows each hand. It seems like the basic strategy, deviation, wager adjustment, card counting are performed correctly.

Thank you for your time. Any input on why I am losing despite using basic strategy, card counting and playing deviation is greatly appreciated!

[21forme]

I haven't looked at your code, but the first thing you need to do is specify the game conditions - rules, number of decks, penetration, etc,. One thing I've noted about BJA-trained players is they are all very familiar with the concept of N0. Depending on the game conditions, N0 is likely to be in the 40000-60000 range. If it's a 6 or 8 deck game, with a spread of only 1-8, it could approach 100,000. Unless you're playing full tables, a better approximation for number of hands is 100/hour. Also, just to be sure, you are playing games with 3:2 and not 6:5 BJ, right?

[cubbie00]

No, I have been convinced it does not work. Colin and others will tell you it is variance but card counting does not work. In fact, you will lose more with good counts.

Hi,


I became interested in Blackjack and card counting a little while ago - learned from wizardofodds.com and blackjackapprenticeship.com, read books by Dr. Thorp, Lance Humble and Peter Griffin; practiced basic strategy and card counting at home and visited casino in Louisiana a couple of times, but ended up losing money all the time. As I was aware of the "law of large number" and being a full time worker, I wanted to find out how many trials (hands) do I need to play in order to generate some meaningful gain, and whether that many number of casino visit is feasible for me or not. Therefore, I wrote a python script which includes basic strategy, playing deviation (Illustrious 18), card counting and 1 to 8 bet spread strategy. I am providing the Google Colab link below. To my surprise, no matter how many number of trials I ran (Most common streak I ran was 1 million hands. Assuming that casino deals in average of 40 hands/hour, 1 million hand is 25,000 hrs of Blackjack play), my script ended up losing money overall. There are localized streaks of gains, but the overall result is loss. I wonder if anyone else has similar real or virtual (simulated) advantage play experience of losses after losses. My script sort of broke my heart and I am wondering whether I should even think about casino visit counting cards, and been thinking is variance in nature more dominant than we would like to think.


Link to code (written in Python) in Google Colab:
https://colab.research.google.com/dr...oM?usp=sharing

Here is a set of example where I ran one set with playing deviation and another set without playing deviation. Each set contains 100 streaks of 10,000 hands/streak, i.e. 1,000,000 hands total. The screenshots of the bankroll and the game data of each hand is saved under:
https://drive.google.com/drive/folde...2Z?usp=sharing
As you can see, even with card counting, regarding whether deviation is on or off, player can expect to lose significant number of hands. Implementation of playing deviation improves the odd to some degree. But, nowhere near the rainbow or sunshine. I looked at the txt files of game data (saved in link above), where it shows each hand. It seems like the basic strategy, deviation, wager adjustment, card counting are performed correctly.

Thank you for your time. Any input on why I am losing despite using basic strategy, card counting and playing deviation is greatly appreciated!

[Gronbog]

There must be bugs in your program. Card counting has been proven for decades using reliable simulation software as well as in real life play by a large number of players and teams.

[DSchles]

No, I have been convinced it does not work. Colin and others will tell you it is variance but card counting does not work. In fact, you will lose more with good counts.

As this is your first post here, you might want to consider that, in order to be taken seriously by anyone here, your second post ought not to be so outlandishly ridiculous and uninformed. If, on the other hand, you're here to troll, then just go away. No one cares.

Don

[sp2022bj]

I haven't looked at your code, but the first thing you need to do is specify the game conditions - rules, number of decks, penetration, etc,. One thing I've noted about BJA-trained players is they are all very familiar with the concept of N0. Depending on the game conditions, N0 is likely to be in the 40000-60000 range. If it's a 6 or 8 deck game, with a spread of only 1-8, it could approach 100,000. Unless you're playing full tables, a better approximation for number of hands is 100/hour. Also, just to be sure, you are playing games with 3:2 and not 6:5 BJ, right?

Hi Thanks for your response. The rules for the game is "Basic Strategy". User can select where he/she wants to include playing deviation or not. User can define no of deck and deck penetration. I usually run with 6 decks, 80% penetration. The BJ pay of 3:2 is hard coded, just like basic strategy and playing deviation. Player does not take insurance, unless the true count is greater that +3, in which case insurance is automatically triggered. Dealer stands on hard 17, but hits on soft 17; No surrender allowed (thats how they played in the casino I visited in Lake Charles, LA). I can understand that looking at the code might be not a pleasant experience. That is why I have saved some example text file of the game data. There are two txt files (output files) of 1000 rounds of play each. One with playing deviation, and other is without playing deviation. Which shows all the hands along with the true count, bet adjustment and bankroll after each round. I tested quite rigorously, found some flaws, corrected, tested again. I do not find any more issues with the game, i.e. it simulates exactly how an advantage player would play in the casino. But according to the program, the player still loses money majority of the time. I am puzzled a bit. Cant really figure out why?!?
The game data can be accessed here: https://drive.google.com/drive/folde...uHOMwiEKinuy2Z

[sp2022bj]

There must be bugs in your program. Card counting has been proven for decades using reliable simulation software as well as in real life play by a large number of players and teams.

I agree with you totally. I have heard and read about the wins of APs. Probabilistically, odds are in your favor when the more higher card are in the deck. I am just stuck a bit due to the result that I got. To ensure every step is checked and verified, and for transparency, I coded to display each hand, running count and true count for each of those hands, wager and bankroll updates for each count, where deviation is triggered or not, even displaying all the card remaining after each hand. A couple of those data can be accessed here: https://drive.google.com/drive/folde...uHOMwiEKinuy2Z
There are a few random win streaks. But the general overall result in my case is loss. I hope to find the issue in my program. Once I verify that it is profitable and how many hours I have to play to generate meaningful profit, perhaps I can happily start visiting casinos

[Haider]

You are quite right. Card counters should expect to lose more hands than they win. They make money by betting low when the odds are against them, and higher otherwise.

"As you can see, even with card counting, regarding whether deviation is on or off, player can expect to lose significant number of hands."

[aceside]

Quote sp2022bj

Thank you for your time. Any input on why I am losing despite using basic strategy, card counting and playing deviation is greatly appreciated!

You are very dedicated to this business and capable of succeeding this. Every time I lose a session I always raise this same question, but I don’t know any pythons to verify your results. One thing for sure, if you can succeed in this field, you will be able to succeed in any professions.

[aceside]

Hi,


I became interested in Blackjack and card counting a little while ago - learned from wizardofodds.com and blackjackapprenticeship.com, read books by Dr. Thorp, Lance Humble and Peter Griffin; practiced basic strategy and card counting at home and visited casino in Louisiana a couple of times, but ended up losing money all the time. !

Of these books, I only read Lance Humble, but one of the two online sources you mentioned is not reliable.

[billytheblackjackkid]

ll

[FormerFeeler]

Round 157, player has A,2,A,3-- a SOFT 17, but stands vs dealer J.

Hands with multiple Aces won't add up to much, but every little bit counts. (...Said like a player!)

My phone is locking up trying to use the "Find in page" for text on chrome, but I'd be looking at hands with big bets and big positive counts. Doubles and splits are worth more than regular hands, too, so check those out.

It seems like the basic winning and losing features are adding/subtracting correctly, so triple-check that your strategies are all correct for your game rules and that your SOURCES are accurate!

[FormerFeeler]

Round TWO! A6v5, player STANDS! It's standing on ANY soft 17! That could be big. I'll keep looking at soft hands when I have more time. (Is it never doubling on soft hands?)