Insurance Bet and Fluctuations

[Dog Hand]

I'm really trying to understand this statement. My understanding is that insurance is probably the easiest of all actions to understand. Very very simple at its core. If (X's remaining > 1/3 of the deck) insuring is profitable.
How is it even vaguely possible the comment above rings true?

UncleChoo,

Here's an example of how a negative TC can still be +EV to insure. Say you're playing heads up with the dealer on a single deck game from the 1950's, when they dealt all the way to the bottom. On round 9 of the deck the dealer is showing an Ace, and after you look at your cards you realize the only five cards you have not yet seen (these five are the burn card from the beginning of the deck, the dealer's hole card, and the three remaining cards in the deck) are 10, 10, 5, 5, 6. Here, the unseen cards are 40% 10's, so insurance is +EV (in fact +20%) but the HiLo running count is -1 and the TC is -1/(5/52) = -10.4.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

[bejammin075]

UncleChoo,

Here's an example of how a negative TC can still be +EV to insure. Say you're playing heads up with the dealer on a single deck game from the 1950's, when they dealt all the way to the bottom. On round 9 of the deck the dealer is showing an Ace, and after you look at your cards you realize the only five cards you have not yet seen (these five are the burn card from the beginning of the deck, the dealer's hole card, and the three remaining cards in the deck) are 10, 10, 5, 5, 6. Here, the unseen cards are 40% 10's, so insurance is +EV (in fact +20%) but the HiLo running count is -1 and the TC is -1/(5/52) = -10.4.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

This situation doesn't only happen in magical single deck from the 1950s. It also can occur in shoes with some decks left to play.

[21forme]

This situation doesn't only happen in magical single deck from the 1950s. It also can occur in shoes with some decks left to play.

You're missing the point. The entire counting scenario is betting based on the probabilities. Nothing is a sure thing. You play for the long-term and you win. When you obsess on rare scenarios and short-term outcomes, it means you don't understand the game. When you hear hoofbeats, don't think zebras.

[aceside]

UncleChoo,

Here's an example of how a negative TC can still be +EV to insure. Say you're playing heads up with the dealer on a single deck game from the 1950's, when they dealt all the way to the bottom. On round 9 of the deck the dealer is showing an Ace, and after you look at your cards you realize the only five cards you have not yet seen (these five are the burn card from the beginning of the deck, the dealer's hole card, and the three remaining cards in the deck) are 10, 10, 5, 5, 6. Here, the unseen cards are 40% 10's, so insurance is +EV (in fact +20%) but the HiLo running count is -1 and the TC is -1/(5/52) = -10.4.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

very good!
In this case, insurance EV=+20%, SD=1.470.
Can anybody find a case for this, insurance EV>0, SD<1.383 ?

[UncleChoo]

Sorry everyone, I was wrapped up in playoff football and never got back to the thread after posting my question. It does make sense now after reading several of your replies. I just had a big mental disconnect, but can see clearly now

[Freightman]

but can see clearly now

https://youtu.be/g_rB4v75jqU

[Freightman]

You're missing the point. The entire counting scenario is betting based on the probabilities. Nothing is a sure thing. You play for the long-term and you win. When you obsess on rare scenarios and short-term outcomes, it means you don't understand the game. When you hear hoofbeats, don't think zebras.

Index play simplified is nothing more than utilizing additional information for gain. Deviating from index play is simply acting upon ADDITIONAL information that is available to some, but not all. Additional information beyond that, an example being the unknown but regaled Advanced system with ASC, is nothing more than putting additional resources into play.

Blackjack is a game of decisions. Best information leads to best decisions. One better decision per hour is a very positive effect on EV.

[Tarzan]

The connection between insurance and the main blackjack game is just this one, the 0.5 bet factor. When counting cards, there is another connection, that is, the human capacity of handling both the side bet and the main game. The latter is a compromise between theoretical expectation and limited human capabilities.

I get the RC and insurance count from the same batch of numbers, thinking about it differently is all, which is a huge shortcut over trying to do a separate perfect insurance count, so this is well within normal human capabilities. I should have read back over the posts, so I won't hear that 21ForMe already mentioned something in the first response to the thread again! Hahaha Anyway, I went with Insurance Count +3 for years. This is Insurance Count, not RC/TC though, as they can differ drastically. I later thought it to be more like +4 after some calculations. Turns out that according to the simulations, the optimal Insurance Count for me was +5. The math on the insurance bet is fairly cut and dry.

If you were to do a separate perfect Insurance count while doing your regular count, you would notice that the two numbers bounce around independently of each other. This is because an (8) doesn't mean much for the RC, but means something in terms of Insurance Count, for example. Surplus (A)'s in the remainder lower Insurance Count but raise RC. If these two numbers were to go on a Ven diagram, the overlap to be in the zone to take the insurance bet for both numbers would vary, depending upon deck composition. Using TC as the basis of taking the insurance bet is not as accurate as a perfect insurance count, but it's certainly in the ballpark, a big overlap on that Ven diagram, so going by the TC is correct most of the time.

[rockdee733]

I need to think about this. “Even Money” will reduce your sd, since now your payout is always 1 (I.e. 1 bet). Insuring a 20 reduces sd, since most of the time your payout +1/2 (instead of 1), or 0 instead of -1. watch movies

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