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Thread: Insurance Bet and Fluctuations

  1. #14
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Don't know if this will be useful, but standard deviations by TC in CVCX and CVData are "normalized standard deviations". That is, units (amounts bet) are ignored. This is required by Kelly. There is one stat page titled "Standard Deviations" in CVData results that provides both normalized and real standard deviations. Of course, total SDs are always real SDs including the effect of bets.
    Last edited by Norm; 01-19-2022 at 05:21 PM.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  2. #15
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    0 out of 3 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    After more careful calculation, I found what I said above is incorrect. If we count cards for blackjack insurance, our EV will increase, and our standard deviation will increase too, usually. Below are my numbers:

    Suppose we have a natural against a dealer ace in a 1-deck blackjack game. If we don't count cards, EV=-8.2%; SD=1.383.
    If we add three extra 10s into this deck, then TC become +2.8, and EV=+3.8%; SD=1.427.

    In conclusion, the original poster's statement is mostly true for blackjack insurance. However, we can not simply comparer SD numbers for different EV numbers. That does not make any sense.

  3. #16
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    All the best I've read about insurance has been in the old archives. Recommend...

    https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/fo...heory-amp-Math
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

  4. #17
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    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Weird. This is an easy math problem and the numbers I provided are correct. Why do I receive two no helpful comments?

  5. #18
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Sorry, because it is not an easy math problem, which is why the question was posed by a well known theorist. The question is interesting and the answer depends heavily on circumstances. That's why your simplistic responses are not well received. I, once again, ask that you give opinions as opposed to stating as truth your simplistic results. Please use Google to translate the French quote below.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  6. #19
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    I translated it. Very good. I have to say this is NOT an easy math problem. Most people do not have the time to work on it.

  7. #20


    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Secretariat said
    Norm, HiLo sometimes overestimates the Ten Ratio and sometimes understimates the Ten Ratio
    It may err on both sides but I thought that overall it would be pretty much equal.
    Compensation availability via FBM ASC Advanced.

  8. #21
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Aceside: It is not "difficult" to solve with "pure" math; it is an intractable math problem by currently known algorithmic methodologies. EoRs are not pure math as they are estimates that have difficulties with non-linearity. CA can be pure math IMO (although not regarded as such by journals without probability notation, which is generally not possible in the uses here); but ignores important aspects of blackjack when counting.
    Freigthman: Please stop inserting FBM into so many threads.
    Don: Thanks for the useful explanations.
    Mason: Apologies for the interruptions.
    Last edited by Norm; 01-19-2022 at 06:16 PM.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  9. #22


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    Norm said
    Freigthman: Please stop inserting FBM into so many threads.
    By all info available - was it not a relevant answer to the question asked?

    No ‘h” in Freightman

  10. #23
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    3 out of 3 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    If you want to start a thread on FBM, do so. Do not insert statements that no one understands into scores of other threads. Please.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  11. #24
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    Insurance is a side bet. It has nothing to do with the main game of blackjack, so we only need to calculate the EV and SD of the insurance part alone. Right?

  12. #25
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    No. It affects overall EV and SD, and therefore the main bets if you are betting optimally.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  13. #26
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    The connection between insurance and the main blackjack game is just this one, the 0.5 bet factor. When counting cards, there is another connection, that is, the human capacity of handling both the side bet and the main game. The latter is a compromise between theoretical expectation and limited human capabilities.

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