EZ Bust side bet

**VonDox** · 09-12-2023, 08:03 PM

Played at a casino in north central Iowa (Boyd's property) and the table had an EZ-BUST side bet. Min bet is $10.00, S17, 6 deck shoe and you could bet up to $15.00. 1 for 1 payout.

I normally never, ever play side bets but I guess I was intrigued that if the TC hit +4 or more and the dealer was sitting on a 5 or 6 and I thought if I kept an ace side count that if a majority of ACE cards were played out then the chances of hitting the side bet might be fairly good.

I got back to my hotel and did a quick google search on the laptop and wizard of odds had this info: https://wizardofodds.com/games/black...-bets/ez-bust/

So I played 1 shoe out and I had 3 opportunties and each time I won. (LUCK?).. The first win came with a TC of 3, dealer with a 6 upcard and 9 aces played. The next two were nearly back to back. TC of 4+ (I struggle with half deck counts, need work), dealer with a 5 and then 6 with 15 aces played. The dealer was cutting the shoe at 1-1/4 decks...

First hand dealer had a 6/10 card and drew a 10, second hand dealer had a 5 with a 9 and pulled an 8 and then a 6 with a 9 and pulled a 10.

I found a thread from a discussion in 2022 about dealer busting precentages but I am not sure the math applies to this?

I guess my question is... From the wizard of odds article it doesn't makes sense to play this side bet? If the wizard of odds tables are sound (no reason to doubt they are not) it looks like not a good side bet and I can add it to the long list of side bets I don't play.

**21forme** · 09-13-2023, 06:56 AM

Various bust side bets have been discussed before. You can find them with a search.
Bottom line, the bust rate for 5 and 6 up doesn't exceed 5)% until TC is about +10, so will almost never happen on a shoe game.

**VonDox** · 09-13-2023, 08:42 AM

Originally Posted by 21forme

Various bust side bets have been discussed before. You can find them with a search.
Bottom line, the bust rate for 5 and 6 up doesn't exceed 5)% until TC is about +10, so will almost never happen on a shoe game.

Thank you for the info, I guess my ulitmate question was if I use a side count for ACE's would it improve the precentages or I am just wrong that it would have an impact or not on the chances of a dealer busting as the shoe is dealt out?

**aceside** · 09-13-2023, 08:49 AM

I researched these bust side bets. Search it here. They are countable. 21forme wanted to say 50%, but that number is rarely reached.

**Archvaldor** · 09-13-2023, 08:49 AM

Originally Posted by 21forme

Various bust side bets have been discussed before. You can find them with a search.
Bottom line, the bust rate for 5 and 6 up doesn't exceed 5)% until TC is about +10, so will almost never happen on a shoe game.

Trying to use a traditional card count to determine when a side bet is profitable is like dancing to architecture.

Generally speaking side-bets do not make it in the casino world or at least survive for very long if they are beatable using a traditional simple linear blackjack counting system like hi-lo.

If you want to beat a side bet then you need to calculate the effects of removing a card on the side-bet alone, and create a specialized count system. Normally this requires a computer program to calculate the effects of removal, but I seem to recall the numbers for bust probability are in Griffin somewhere if they aren't archived online (bjmath?). If the effects of removal are significant you may have a very profitable opportunity.

**Freightman** · 09-13-2023, 08:58 AM

Originally Posted by VonDox

Thank you for the info, I guess my ulitmate question was if I use a side count for ACE's would it improve the precentages or I am just wrong that it would have an impact or not on the chances of a dealer busting as the shoe is dealt out?

Casinos love to offer side bets because of their high profitability and the profitable second game within the main game. That being said, there is math to each side bet, each with a different strategy designed to beat the side bet long term.

I won’t comment on your particular side bet as I’m not familiar with it, but I do profitably play other side bets within my locale, and others. I would encourage you to develop a persona as it pertains to your particular game coupled with your sporadic play. Coupled with that sporadic play, also consider more frequent play of the side bet with ramping as odds improve.

**Norm** · 09-13-2023, 09:06 AM

There are certainly side bets that are beatable with standard counting systems, albeit not as beatable as with specialized counts. Casinos make mistakes.

**Freightman** · 09-13-2023, 09:25 AM

Originally Posted by Norm

There are certainly side bets that are beatable with standard counting systems, albeit not as beatable as with specialized counts. Casinos make mistakes.

Some comments
1. I don’t think it’s a matter of casinos making mistakes (they would dump the game quickly), rather the profits made by catering to the masses outdistance the losses incurred by the knowing.
2. Specialized counts will maximize profits (obviously). Those counts are beyond the capabilities of most players who are already counting the main game.
3. I have enough on my plate as it is and discard specialized counts for a profitable but less efficient tying in of side bets to my main halves count system - it works.
4. Counting couples playing side by side probably the best way to attack side bets - one counting the main game, the other using a specialized count on the side game.
5. Best act I ever saw - The boyfriend, drinking like a fish, wonging in and out counting main game, socializing with everyone spreading $50-$200, girlfriend snuggled up spreading $10-$60 counting side game, girlfriend tapping boyfriend in the thigh or crotch (seriously, it was a signal).

**21forme** · 09-13-2023, 10:27 AM

Originally Posted by aceside

Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
I researched these bust side bets. Search it here. They are countable.

That's correct. Sorry about the typo.

**21forme** · 09-13-2023, 10:32 AM

Originally Posted by Norm

There are certainly side bets that are beatable with standard counting systems, albeit not as beatable as with specialized counts. Casinos make mistakes.

For sure. There was a side bet about 5 years ago called 21 Magic. A number of us made 6 figures on it in a few weeks (then the side bet was pulled by the casinos). Didn't even involve counting, but just a modified game strategy. There was a GWAE episode about it.

**Norm** · 09-13-2023, 12:56 PM

There was one last year that was beatable with any of the common counts for betting and no indices. The basic strategy was very different and the casinos likely made money from players who mistakenly thought they could beat it with simple, common sense.

**Archvaldor** · 09-13-2023, 01:21 PM

Originally Posted by Freightman

2. Specialized counts will maximize profits (obviously). Those counts are beyond the capabilities of most players who are already counting the main game.

It isn't obvious to most. Having watched threads on various side counts over the years in about 80% of cases the poster was trying to use a traditional count to beat the game. This was even true with bets like the O/U where the sidebet was so profitable counting the base game was a waste of time.

Using a traditional count to beat side-bets is like using a geiger counter to take your temperature. It can be very inefficient and can waste a lot of EV.

**Freightman** · 09-13-2023, 01:51 PM

Using a traditional count to beat side-bets is like using a geiger counter to take your temperature. It can be very inefficient and can waste a lot of EV.

Kings Bounty, Lucky Ladies (ASC is certainly helpful), Lucky Lucky (Extremes both Pos and Neg), ASC and the coveted FBM ASC for intermediate proportions (for surplus of 6,7,8). Im sure they’re others.