See the top rated post in this thread. Click here

Page 3 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast
Results 27 to 39 of 41

Thread: Progressive three of a kind bonus

  1. #27
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Oct 2018
    Posts
    1,154


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    Substantially correct, aceside! The slight correction is that the EoR for the Diamond A is more than that of a non-Diamond A, due to the jackpot, so the EoR calculation must be performed separately for Ad vs. Ashc.

    bejammin075, I typically do such calculations in Excel to facilitate the process.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand
    I totally agree with your math but slightly disagree with its practical application.
    To get 3 aces of diamonds, the probability=6x5x4/(312x311x310)=4x10^(-6);
    To get 2 queens of hearts, the probability = 6x5/(312x311)=3.1x10^(-4).

    The difference is huge, 2 orders of magnitude. I haven’t attempted to differentiate queens of hearts and queens of others, so no way would I differentiate suits of aces.

  2. #28


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    I totally agree with your math but slightly disagree with its practical application.
    To get 3 aces of diamonds, the probability=6x5x4/(312x311x310)=4x10^(-6);
    To get 2 queens of hearts, the probability = 6x5/(312x311)=3.1x10^(-4).

    The difference is huge, 2 orders of magnitude. I haven’t attempted to differentiate queens of hearts and queens of others, so no way would I differentiate suits of aces.
    What do queen of hearts have to do with this?

  3. #29
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Oct 2018
    Posts
    1,154


    0 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by bejammin075 View Post
    What do queen of hearts have to do with this?
    I am talking about lucky ladies LL10, in which a pair of queens of hearts are paid 200:1. I have hit them many times but I never differentiated Qs of hearts and Qs of others. Practically it’s useless to count the number of Qs of hearts left in the remaining deck because it is a rare event.

    some bets are countable but most bets are just a lottery.

  4. #30
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    The mote in God's eye
    Posts
    12,461
    Blog Entries
    59


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    The largest bonus cannot be ignored. Of course, standard deviation must be considered to put this in context. Just like progressive bonuses. Stupid as they sometime may be, even casinos understand this.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  5. #31


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    I am talking about lucky ladies LL10, in which a pair of queens of hearts are paid 200:1.
    Why? You actually, for once, added something positive to a discussion and then you end up negating that contribution with something irrelevant. If you want to discuss LL10, either start your own discussion specific to that, or add on to the existing LL discussion.

  6. #32


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by bejammin075 View Post
    Dog Hand, could this part of the bet be calculated differently? My interpretation of UNCBear's description is that it would be any triple Aces that aren't 3 diamonds. So the first Ace could be any Ace, the second Ace could be any Ace (including diamonds) and the 3rd Ace must be non-diamond. Well the order doesn't matter, point is, only 1 Ace needs to be non-diamond, so instead of your numerator being 18*5*4, I think it would be 24*23*18. What do you think?
    I was gong back over the thread to try my hand at putting the formulas into a spreadsheet so I could calculate things based on the most recent progressive levels (and, by extension, at what non-ace card depletion level it would become +EV)
    My interpretation of the rule for the 10% payout would be suited trip aces (clubs, spades or hearts) while any three aces would fall into the any much lower -- and static -- paid any trips category. I'll ask for a brochure on the game when I'm next there, which will hopefully have more clarity on specific situations.

  7. #33


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I attempted to calculate the EoR for Ace-D and Ace-CHS. The exact numbers don't matter, but relatively, I calculated an EoR for Ace-D that was exactly 10.000 times more than for the other aces. The calculation for the Ace-D was just like aceside said. For the other aces, I broke it down in to 2 branches, the branch where the removed ace is not part of the hand 12/17ths of the time, and the other branch where the removed ace type is part of the hand, 5/17ths of the time.

    Anyone else want to try to calculate it and see if we get the same result?

  8. #34


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    forgot to add, for calculating the EoR of the other aces: After calculating the EV for the two branches (12/17 and 5/17), I subtracted both of those scenario EVs from the original EV.

  9. #35


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I’ve attempted to simulate this side bet with no luck so far. What I would like to do is figure out how much the EV changes with ace density at various jackpot levels, and the frequency of being able to detect an advantage at various jackpot levels with various ace tracking strategies. I was thinking about how the lucky ladies side bet off the top starts out with very negative EV, but it’s countable and the EV changes quickly. In the CVData side bet configuration screens there are some handy 3-card poker options, but I must be using them incorrectly. In another thread I was trouble shooting the LL side bet, and I got that working, so I know I’m not making one particular mistake. The test case for this ace side bet sim is to set the jackpot level at break even off the top while the player strategy uses something that roughly correlates with aces, which should show approximately 0 EV when the player count is neutral, with the EV changing as the count changes. If I can get that to work then a whole bunch of analysis opportunities open up.

    Norm, do you have any tips or documentation about how to use the 3-card poker options in the side bet sims? In my sim output, the EV is -100% at all TCs, indicating to me that none of the payouts are being triggered. Maybe later I can post some screen shots. The countable portion of the side bet is suited ace 3-of-a-kind. In the 3-card poker drop down menu, I picked suited trips, and in the player hand I specified two aces, and then the suit. I left the dealer hand unspecified. With the dealer hand, I cannot directly specify the suit, so I am relying on the suited trips option to constrain that, e.g. if the players hand has to be aces & diamonds, and the payout is for suited trips, then (I would have presumed) the dealer would automatically be constrained to having an ace of diamonds.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  10. #36
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    The mote in God's eye
    Posts
    12,461
    Blog Entries
    59


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Click Load and look for a side bet that has Poker options. Maybe Blazing 7's.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  11. #37


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Some more about the sim I attempted: I also put in payouts for the more common 3 card poker hands, and some of those like flush should happen frequently, so I should get something more than -100% EV, but even those common hands are not triggering a payout. For the suited ace trips, I’m using a payout of about 123,000 to 1 for diamonds, and 12,300 to 1 for the other 3 suits (one side bet tab for each suit).


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  12. #38
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    The mote in God's eye
    Posts
    12,461
    Blog Entries
    59


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Go to Tools-Export and create an export file. Email the export file.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  13. #39


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I figured out my problem. To sim the 3-card poker hand side bet, in the Mix And Match section you have to select "1st Two" for Player and "Upcard" for Dealer. I didn't think this was necessary as there's already a check box for "First Two Cards (pre-split)" and I had separately specified a dealer upcard of Ace. In a quick sim of not very many rounds, it seems to have validated nicely. I set the simmed payoffs to what I had calculated in Excel would need to be break-even EV, based on the progressive payouts plus the several miscellaneous non-countable payouts. I assigned the player a perfect ace count of -6 for aces and +1/2 for everything else. In the sim results, the EV was 0% (break even) at a TC between -1 and -2. In negative, ace-poor counts, the EV dropped, and in positive ace-rich counts, the EV went up. So the sim is working, and corroborates the previous calculations for payouts.

Page 3 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 8
    Last Post: 12-17-2019, 12:13 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.