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Thread: What's wrong with my Lucky Ladies sim?

  1. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    The lucky ladies side bet has been intensively investigated and everything is well known.
    Well I have reasons I didn't mention to keep the initial post short. I have old index numbers from some sims years ago that (seem to have) worked, but since then I have changed how I determine true count. I want to do the simulations taking into account how I presently calculate TC. My old sims are gone so I'm starting from scratch. I'm not sure I trust what I came up with before and I want to verify.

    Reason number 2: I have alternative tag values I can use on the fly, and those tags don't match any established card counting system, so nothing is published on that. I have to determine this for myself.

    Reason number 3: I want to be generally proficient at doing other side bet and bonus sims. If I can't get the LL side bet sims working, which is outlined in the help files for the CVData software, then I can't trust other sims I might do on side bets and bonuses.

  2. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    1st sidebet
    arrow choice
    says 11 on all screens
    what does 11 mean

    At DD, you should start seeing positive EV around +5
    The 11 you refer to I am not worried about. It is the number of the tab in the simulator. Tabs 1 through 10 are for bonuses, tabs 11 through 20 are for side bets. LL requires the combination of 5 side bets to be merged, so it takes up 5 tabs. I am pretty sure that the order of the tabs matters. The first of the 5 LL side bet payouts is the highest payout & lowest probability. If that pays, the others are ignored. If that side bet is not paid, then it goes to the next side bet, and so on.

    The +5 index you mention, that is for doubled halves, or HiLo? My old (not sure if correct) sims for LL9 have an index of +20 for DD, and LL10 pay table I have +16 for DD.

  3. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    It has - the consensus is strike point at DD is about +5 and +8 at 6D.
    That's weird. In my old sims (again, not sure if correct) I had higher indexes for DD than 6D.

  4. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Hmm. Interesting. Risk Averse side betting.
    Not that there's anything wrong with that...

  5. #15


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    Bump.

    Does anyone have any ideas I can try to get this side bet simulation to work? Is there any information I could provide that would help? I didn’t show the strategy that I attached, but that is simple enough I don’t think I messed that up. As far as I can tell the attached strategy just needs to have the system tags, but I attached a full strategy with all the indexes too. This is partly to double check my LL numbers, but also to generically have confidence if I do other side bet sims.


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  6. #16
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Install the latest update. If that doesn't fix it, go to Tools-Export, create an export file and email it.

    https://qfit.com/downloads.htm#free
    "Croyez ceux qui cherchent la vérité, doutez de ceux qui la trouvent." --André Gide

  7. #17


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    Alright, I think I figured it out. It has to do with the "Side Bets are Merged" button at the bottom, and the lower-left sector of the screen named Side Bet. In my first side bet tab (first pic in the original post), the bet is set to 1.0. In the next 4 side bet tabs, the "Side Bet" window is blocked out because the bets are merged. What I did was un-check "Side Bets are Merged", and I noticed that side bet tabs 2 through 5 also had the bet set to 1. I thought that with side bets merged, only the bet on tab 1 would count, so I paid no attention to these other hidden bets. But with the side bets un-merged, I changed the bets in tabs 2 through 5 from 1.0 to 0, then re-merged the side bets and that's when I finally got normal looking EV numbers. According to this sim, doubled halves tags in 6D with the LL9 payout has an index of about 13. So when the sim wasn't working, it was because I was betting 5 times the side bet amount with only the pay table of 1 bet.

    LL fix.jpg

  8. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by bejammin075 View Post
    Alright, I think I figured out
    Can you do this sim with HiLo? I like your work a lot but not Wong halves at all… … Also, do a sim on LL10 because this is what I do.
    Last edited by aceside; 01-18-2022 at 05:12 PM.

  9. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    Can you do this sim with HiLo? I like your work a lot but not Wong halves at all… … Also, do a sim on LL10 because this is what I do.
    6 decks (1 deck cut off), Hi-Lo, Truncating TC, Truncating deck estimate, quarter deck resolution, TC divisor is cards in tray, 2 billion rounds, LL10 pay table.

    The EV is slightly positive at +4, but really kicks in at +5 & above. The EV changes very rapidly with the count.

    Hi-Lo LL10 6D.jpg

  10. #20


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    It seems something is not right. For a 6-deck shoe, EV should be -17.6%. At TC +4, EV should be slight negative, I believe. For an 8-deck shoe, EV should be slightly positive.

    If we use ASC, the critical TC should drop one when aces per deck drop one. Can you double check?

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