Originally Posted by

**bejammin075**
Ok, try to focus people! Stop feeding the Genious. He will use any provocation to brag about his system. Aceside will aceside, what can you do?

Anyhow, I am also wanting to know the answer to OPs question. I don't understand progressive jackpots very well, but I haven't put much thought into it. From listening to GWAE, I know there are APs who go out and attack slot machines with progressive jackpots once they reach a certain point. It seems to me those people would understand this problem.

Craigrow asked specifically how to calculate when it is +EV for a $1 bet to have 4 of a kind with the first two dealer and player cards. I'll assume the rank doesn't matter, therefore the first of the 4 cards is a freebee. Here's my quick & dirty approach:

2nd card (assuming 6D) matches first card: 23 out o 311 chance (e.g., started with 24 of a given rank out of 312 cards in 6D).

3rd card matches: 22 out of 310 chance.

4th card matches: 21 out of 309 chance.

Each of those probabilities is about 0.07. Multiply those three together, and I get 0.000357, or 1 out of 2804 chance. So I'm thinking that a $1 bet that wins 100% of the pot with this 4-of-a-kind would be +EV at a jackpot of $2804. Is this correct?

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