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Thread: Spanish 21 Jackpot

  1. #11


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    Ok, try to focus people! Stop feeding the Genious. He will use any provocation to brag about his system. Aceside will aceside, what can you do?

    Anyhow, I am also wanting to know the answer to OPs question. I don't understand progressive jackpots very well, but I haven't put much thought into it. From listening to GWAE, I know there are APs who go out and attack slot machines with progressive jackpots once they reach a certain point. It seems to me those people would understand this problem.

    Craigrow asked specifically how to calculate when it is +EV for a $1 bet to have 4 of a kind with the first two dealer and player cards. I'll assume the rank doesn't matter, therefore the first of the 4 cards is a freebee. Here's my quick & dirty approach:

    2nd card (assuming 6D) matches first card: 23 out o 311 chance (e.g., started with 24 of a given rank out of 312 cards in 6D).

    3rd card matches: 22 out of 310 chance.

    4th card matches: 21 out of 309 chance.

    Each of those probabilities is about 0.07. Multiply those three together, and I get 0.000357, or 1 out of 2804 chance. So I'm thinking that a $1 bet that wins 100% of the pot with this 4-of-a-kind would be +EV at a jackpot of $2804. Is this correct?

  2. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by bejammin075 View Post
    Ok, try to focus people! Stop feeding the Genious. He will use any provocation to brag about his system. Aceside will aceside, what can you do?

    Anyhow, I am also wanting to know the answer to OPs question. I don't understand progressive jackpots very well, but I haven't put much thought into it. From listening to GWAE, I know there are APs who go out and attack slot machines with progressive jackpots once they reach a certain point. It seems to me those people would understand this problem.

    Craigrow asked specifically how to calculate when it is +EV for a $1 bet to have 4 of a kind with the first two dealer and player cards. I'll assume the rank doesn't matter, therefore the first of the 4 cards is a freebee. Here's my quick & dirty approach:

    2nd card (assuming 6D) matches first card: 23 out o 311 chance (e.g., started with 24 of a given rank out of 312 cards in 6D).

    3rd card matches: 22 out of 310 chance.

    4th card matches: 21 out of 309 chance.

    Each of those probabilities is about 0.07. Multiply those three together, and I get 0.000357, or 1 out of 2804 chance. So I'm thinking that a $1 bet that wins 100% of the pot with this 4-of-a-kind would be +EV at a jackpot of $2804. Is this correct?
    bejammin075,

    The OP mentioned that the game was Spanish 21, so the decks have no 10's. This means a 6D game has only 288 cards, rather than 312, so you need to change your denominators:

    P = (288/288)*(23/287)*(22/286)*(21/285) = 0.000454...

    or 1 in about 2,202.

    Note the OP mentioned Aces specifically. If the four of a kind must be in Aces, then the probability will be one-twelfth of the above P (because the first term will be 24/288), so the odds are 1 in about 26,418. This seems much more likely for the odds for a jackpot.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  3. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    bejammin075,

    The OP mentioned that the game was Spanish 21, so the decks have no 10's. This means a 6D game has only 288 cards, rather than 312, so you need to change your denominators:

    P = (288/288)*(23/287)*(22/286)*(21/285) = 0.000454...

    or 1 in about 2,202.

    Note the OP mentioned Aces specifically. If the four of a kind must be in Aces, then the probability will be one-twelfth of the above P (because the first term will be 24/288), so the odds are 1 in about 26,418. This seems much more likely for the odds for a jackpot.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand
    Good catch for the correction for Spanish decks.

    I interpreted Craigrow's post as that he started thinking about this situation when he happened to be dealt two Aces and the dealer had two Aces, but that the jackpot generally applied to any 4-of-a-kind. Perhaps Craigrow can clarify.

  4. #14


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    A question on the particulars: does the side bet pay out if some of the cards in your initial hand are gone? For example, dealt 7,7 v 7. You split, and you end up busting one or both new hands. Play continues then the dealer reveals a 7 hole card.


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  5. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by bejammin075 View Post
    A question on the particulars: does the side bet pay out if some of the cards in your initial hand are gone? For example, dealt 7,7 v 7. You split, and you end up busting one or both new hands. Play continues then the dealer reveals a 7 hole card.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Dealer paid out side bet first before continue to play BJ.

  6. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by BJGenius007 View Post
    Dealer paid out side bet first before continue to play BJ.
    I'm commenting on Craigrow's situation, is that the same side bet as you played? Craigrow mentioned the jackpot is hit on 4-of-a-kind which includes the hole card. Would the dealer be checking the hole card on every up card?

  7. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by bejammin075 View Post
    I'm commenting on Craigrow's situation, is that the same side bet as you played? Craigrow mentioned the jackpot is hit on 4-of-a-kind which includes the hole card. Would the dealer be checking the hole card on every up card?
    Depending on casino, the third seven may be dealer's upcard or the player's third card. If it is latter, player will either hit or split. No one will stand because there is big money on the line. If the player hit and bust, he will be paid the less amount of money. Dealer will remember the player got two sevens and pay the player in the end of the round even he took away the bust cards.

  8. #18


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    Spanish 21 Jackpot

    Thanks Benjamin for steering the thread back on track. The 100% payout is for any four-of-a-kind. If the player busts, the dealer collects the bet but leaves the cards on the table until the dealer’s hole card is revealed, then the jackpot is paid.

    Based on the math above the $9,000 jackpot seems like a good $1 investment. It’s still a long shot, of course. But, if I can invest a $1 every time I see a $9,000+ jackpot, after a few thousand hands I should come out well ahead.


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    Last edited by Craigrow; 01-14-2022 at 04:35 PM.

  9. #19


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    Can you give the flavor of one of the other payouts on the jackpot? I’m thinking about how you could combine the big, infrequent payouts and the smaller, more likely payouts.


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  10. #20


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    Spanish 21 Jackpot

    OK. Sorry. Since I wasn’t playing the bet I didn’t pay close attention. I looked up the jackpot payouts.

    4 of a Kind Suited - 100%
    4 of a Kind Same Color - 10%
    4 of a Kind - $200
    3 of a Kind Same Color - $20
    3 of a Kind - $10
    Suited Pair - $3

    When I looked up the rules I also discovered it’s not technically a progressive jackpot. The jackpot amount is set by the casino and not related to the amount paid in.



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