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Thread: What's wrong with my Lucky Ladies sim?

  1. #1


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    What's wrong with my Lucky Ladies sim?

    I'm attempting to do this Lucky Ladies sim, and it's not turning out right. In the results, the EV is negative at all counts. What am I doing wrong? This side bet is outlined in the help file, but the help file seems like it is geared towards an older software version, so the instructions don't quite match the software (e.g., the help file mentions payouts in tenths, like using 40:10 to indicate a 4:1 payoff).

    LL-01.jpg


    LL-02.jpg


    LL-03.jpg


    LL-04.jpg


    LL-05.jpg

  2. #2


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    These are the results. Note that the EV is always negative.

    LL-06.jpg

  3. #3


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    In the first pic of the first post, I noticed that the upper left check box says "Enable Bonus 1" rather than "Enable SideBet1". I went back into the sim, and SideBet1 says "Enable Bonus 1" but if I click on another tab and click back, it changes to saying "Enable SideBet1".

  4. #4
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    The lucky ladies side bet has been intensively investigated and everything is well known. Earlier we discussed about the blackjack hand 8,8 vs 10 but still haven’t reached a consistent conclusion. What are the HiLo TC deviation indices for split/surrender at different deck numbers?
    Last edited by aceside; 01-13-2022 at 07:22 PM.

  5. #5


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    1st sidebet
    arrow choice
    says 11 on all screens
    what does 11 mean

    At DD, you should start seeing positive EV around +5

  6. #6
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    But I have been using a HiLo TC +7 for double decks.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    The lucky ladies side bet has been intensively investigated and everything is well known. Earlier we discussed about the blackjack hand 8,8 vs 10 but still haven’t reached a consistent conclusion. What are the HiLo TC deviation indices for split/surrender at different deck numbers?
    It has - the consensus is strike point at DD is about +5 and +8 at 6D.

    That however, does not seem to be his purpose. As an example, who really cares if he has $5 or $25 side Bet at strike point. His long term gain is about a slice of over even. Maybe he is devising a side bet ramping strategy and wants to calculate his long term EV using an optimal side bet ramping strategy?

    Factors effecting overall EV might be a ramping strategy for all hands off the top for all counts, or starting at some intermediate count such as +2, or withholding bets until strike point is achieved. Or, he has some other purpose. The point is - he has a purpose other than betting at strike point.

    You’ve just dazzled me with your reading skills, however, comprehension of what you’ve read should be your next goal. I find that comprehension is a useful endeavour.

  8. #8
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    I like your last paragraph.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    I like your last paragraph.
    I gave you a helpful for this. You’ve earned it. That’s your quota for the year.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    But I have been using a HiLo TC +7 for double decks.

    Hmm. Interesting. Risk Averse side betting.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    The lucky ladies side bet has been intensively investigated and everything is well known.
    Well I have reasons I didn't mention to keep the initial post short. I have old index numbers from some sims years ago that (seem to have) worked, but since then I have changed how I determine true count. I want to do the simulations taking into account how I presently calculate TC. My old sims are gone so I'm starting from scratch. I'm not sure I trust what I came up with before and I want to verify.

    Reason number 2: I have alternative tag values I can use on the fly, and those tags don't match any established card counting system, so nothing is published on that. I have to determine this for myself.

    Reason number 3: I want to be generally proficient at doing other side bet and bonus sims. If I can't get the LL side bet sims working, which is outlined in the help files for the CVData software, then I can't trust other sims I might do on side bets and bonuses.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    1st sidebet
    arrow choice
    says 11 on all screens
    what does 11 mean

    At DD, you should start seeing positive EV around +5
    The 11 you refer to I am not worried about. It is the number of the tab in the simulator. Tabs 1 through 10 are for bonuses, tabs 11 through 20 are for side bets. LL requires the combination of 5 side bets to be merged, so it takes up 5 tabs. I am pretty sure that the order of the tabs matters. The first of the 5 LL side bet payouts is the highest payout & lowest probability. If that pays, the others are ignored. If that side bet is not paid, then it goes to the next side bet, and so on.

    The +5 index you mention, that is for doubled halves, or HiLo? My old (not sure if correct) sims for LL9 have an index of +20 for DD, and LL10 pay table I have +16 for DD.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    It has - the consensus is strike point at DD is about +5 and +8 at 6D.
    That's weird. In my old sims (again, not sure if correct) I had higher indexes for DD than 6D.

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