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Thread: Index to surrender 8,8 v T?

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    Index to surrender 8,8 v T?

    I can not get the index sims to come out right for this play. It seems like it should be a low positive number. I’m using Halves with doubled tags. My own approximate method comes up with +4, but that method often comes up with indexes that are too high. Is there a risk averse version of the index? The RA indexes seem to usually be higher, e.g. for doubling 10 v T the RA index is quite a bit higher than the EVmax index, but I could see how in the case of 8,8 v T the surrender RA index might be lower, considering the surrender option leaves you with a guaranteed half bet versus a lot higher variance when splitting.


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  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    +4 sounds too high. I doubt if the RA vs EVmax indices are much different. Are you running this with correct hit/stand and doubling indices in the base strategy?
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    What? That does not sound correct. For the hand 8,8 vs T, I have been using a hilo index of +3 for split/surrender. If your are using Haves with doubled tags, the index should be +6. Please confirm this number because this hand comes up frequently.
    Last edited by aceside; 01-10-2022 at 01:12 PM.

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    I ran the index sims with a complete basic strategy attached (with the system tags) but no indexes pre-determined, and I made sure to have allowed to find indexes for 16 v 10 (hit/stand and surrender), and 8,8 surrender, 8,8 splitting.

    Should I run the index sim with all of the above indexes specified except for the surrender 8,8 vT?


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    How many decks did you use? This number is very sensitive to the deck number.

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    It’s not the most frequent of hands but it comes up often enough. I’m already pretty sure +4 is too high, so it’s probably +1 to +3. I was running the sims for 6 deck. If I can learn the general way to properly sim it I can sim for any number of decks. 6 & 8 deck should be the same index.


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    I also set the index sims to truncate TC, truncate deck estimation, quarter deck resolution.

    A question Norm: if deck resolution is quarter deck, and I’m truncating the deck estimation, is CVData truncating to the nearest quarter deck? E.g. 6 deck shoe, 0.6 decks played, 5.4 decks remain, truncates to 5.25 decks?


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    Quote Originally Posted by bejammin075 View Post
    Should I run the index sim with all of the above indexes specified except for the surrender 8,8 vT?
    This play and its index depends on how you play your hands after the split, so you also need to have indices for all possible holdings of 10 and higher vs T established. I don't know how CVIndex works internally. It may be that you need to manually add those plays to the set of indices you want computed or it may be that it does that for you. From Norm's comment it would seem that it may not do this. Also remember that (N)DAS will make a difference as will the allowed number of splits. As Norm has said many times about index generation, "Everything affects everything".

    For what it's worth, for Wong has 0 for Halves (4 decks), +1 for Hi-Lo (4 decks) but doesn't have different numbers for (N)DAS. I get +2 with 6 and 8 decks for Hi-Lo with DAS SPL3 and +1 with NDAS SPL3 using my own software. Deck estimates rounded to 1/2 and true counts floored (same as truncating for positive counts).

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    I was out for a while. Gronbog is correct in that indices interact. How can you calculate an 88 surrender index if you don't already know what will happen if you don't surrender? (One of the many problems with generating indices with EoRs.) CVData generates indices based on the base strategy that you specify. Generally, you should never generate one index at a time without having already generated dependent indices for that dealer upcard, either in the same generation or in the specified base strategy.
    Last edited by Norm; 01-10-2022 at 03:09 PM.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    What? That does not sound correct. For the hand 8,8 vs T, I have been using a hilo index of +3 for split/surrender. If your are using Haves with doubled tags, the index should be +6. Please confirm this number because this hand comes up frequently.
    aceside, that is completely incorrect. Please make your post opinions or questions instead of statements of fact as you are rarely correct.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by bejammin075 View Post
    I can not get the index sims to come out right for this play. It seems like it should be a low positive number.
    Your instinct is correct. I have written program to simulate for Zen. Zen has this index +0.5 with half deck resolution or +1 with full deck resolution. Without doing simulations for other system, I can also suggest Hi Lo has this index +0.5 and Halves has the index +1. AccuZen lowers this index with richness of midCard8/9 and increases the index with richness of ace.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bejammin075 View Post
    I also set the index sims to truncate TC, truncate deck estimation, quarter deck resolution.

    A question Norm: if deck resolution is quarter deck, and I’m truncating the deck estimation, is CVData truncating to the nearest quarter deck? E.g. 6 deck shoe, 0.6 decks played, 5.4 decks remain, truncates to 5.25 decks?


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    Yes.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  13. #13


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    From the data I can generate it appears that late surrender 8-8 v T for 2 decks using Wong Halves (doubled) can most simply be covered by running count. Surrender if RC >= 5 approximately covers most cases. Later in shoe lower to RC >= 4.

    Code:
    Count tags {2,-1,-2,-2,-3,-2,-1,0,1,2}
    2 decks, 8-8 versus T, late surrender
    
    Cards remaining     RC Index        TC ref
    (before up card)
    _____________________________________________________
    102-99              Do not surr     --
    98                  >=5             +2.65
    97                  >=6             +3.22
    96-68               >=5             +2.71 to +3.82
    67-12               >=4             +3.10 to +17.33
    11-9                >=3             +14.18 to +17.33
    <9                  No subsets or not enough cards
    k_c
    Last edited by k_c; 01-10-2022 at 03:58 PM.

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