being scared (or getting used to ) incredible short term positive variance

**Goatlife** · 03-25-2013, 10:30 AM

ok.. I have been going non stop since sepetember and have made in in the really high 5 figures. I have logged around 308 hours playing part time ( I know small sample size) of AP play with 75% of the hours on a count game (mostly heads up or with 1 other player). I am running at expectation counting .... below expectation on everything else but everything else has huge variance and with a small sample size so I am assuming this is normal. so the question is it normal to be scared by large positive variance? I am kind of scared of it because I could of easily lost that same amount. I am assuming this is a healthy way to look at AP play but it takes some getting used to for me. My bank has been on an upswing so I like to play quarter Kelly and I have resized up lately (in order to maximize my winrate for hours spent in a casino) so my bets are much larger than I'm used to making therefore the swings will be much greater. Since im playing quarter Kelly I am not worried really by ruin just the swings take some time getting taking used to. Has anyone experience this when increasing there stakes in the first month? What made me write this post is an unsual win for me in a very short amount of hours of play at higher level stakes

**Goatlife** · 03-25-2013, 10:49 AM

one more thing.. its officially sux to play by yourself.. you don't have anyone to help you join in the joy or sorrow (not really sorrow) of playing... also can't get help with stuff you might need help with on the spot. getting really sick of the lonely weekends in hotel rooms. I work in a family business during the week and on the weekends I play.....so social life as of September has been little to non existence.. anyone else have this issue as well. Sorry for the rant and personal information just need help that's all

**chang04133** · 03-25-2013, 11:09 AM

That is one of the reason why I am trying to find people to play with, but they are either too dumb to understand CC or not interested on the subject.

**stopgambling** · 03-25-2013, 11:54 AM

yes ,most dont believe in AP or want to understand .They just think Ap's are delusional and nobody can win in a casino. That 's the exact reason that we have a chance to win. If everybody is well informed,how are we gonna have beatable games?All these issues have been talk about in many of our threads. See NT21 and DA post,they said it is hard even to find one partner for team play.

**Marlene** · 03-25-2013, 11:59 AM

It naturally is a lonely business unless you are part of a team or have a very understanding and adept S.O. whom you can incorporate into your play. I would recommend that you find other outlets in your life to address the social need.

I am in a similar situation, fairly new part time AP with decent BR. It is tempting to max out playing time in order to reach N0. As with all things, moderation is key. Those games and stores will always be there.

Originally Posted by smallcapgrowth

one more thing.. its officially sux to play by yourself.. you don't have anyone to help you join in the joy or sorrow (not really sorrow) of playing... also can't get help with stuff you might need help with on the spot. getting really sick of the lonely weekends in hotel rooms. I work in a family business during the week and on the weekends I play.....so social life as of September has been little to non existence.. anyone else have this issue as well. Sorry for the rant and personal information just need help that's all

**Goatlife** · 03-25-2013, 12:11 PM

the thing for me is I have other profitable area is my life so if I am not making decent money from AP there is no point to play..... I don't find it fun... im strictly there to get cash.. period

**ZenKinG** · 03-25-2013, 12:53 PM

I dont see it as a lonely life, cause when i am playing i interact so much with people/players or waitresses, etc.. Maybe once i start taking long trips by myself in hotel rooms, ill see it differently.. so u may have a point.. But thats why i would do it part time and find a job that I like and that is sociable, cause if you hae a office job or any job where it is also solitary and having AP on the side, you will go into depression lol.. Also save the weekends to go out with your friends, playing weekends is bad anyway, cause its always crowded.

**chang04133** · 03-25-2013, 12:59 PM

Zenking and smallcap, i think we are in early and mid 20s. After I become 21, lets have a trip to vegas.

**Goatlife** · 03-25-2013, 01:15 PM

Originally Posted by chang04133

Zenking and smallcap, i think we are in early and mid 20s. After I become 21, lets have a trip to vegas.

not to be disrespectful but i politely decline.. still feel free to pm me if you have questions about counting in gernal

**chang04133** · 03-25-2013, 01:18 PM

Originally Posted by smallcapgrowth

not to be disrespectful but i politely decline.. still feel free to pm me if you have questions about counting in gernal

Is it better to play alone? if that is the case, I am not going to spend any more time creating team.
I think distrust and the other issues by having a trip is quite risky, especially we all know we are going to carrying large sum of cash. Nvm I was a bit dumb. Forget about that.

And what I was trying to saying is to locally meet up in Vegas. Not riding a car or sharing rooms or etc...
Just a person to person in BJ tables.

**Ouchez** · 03-25-2013, 01:57 PM

Originally Posted by smallcapgrowth

one more thing.. its officially sux to play by yourself.. you don't have anyone to help you join in the joy or sorrow (not really sorrow) of playing... also can't get help with stuff you might need help with on the spot. getting really sick of the lonely weekends in hotel rooms. I work in a family business during the week and on the weekends I play.....so social life as of September has been little to non existence.. anyone else have this issue as well. Sorry for the rant and personal information just need help that's all

Small, knowing what I know of your situation it is very possible you are a Phenom, much like KJ and a few others it has been my pleasure of knowing. You for sure are doing SPECTACULAR. I know of no solo counter to have done so well in such a short time without having been a millionaire to start with.

Keep up the great work, stay frosty, and be careful.

Best,
Ouchez

**moo321** · 03-25-2013, 02:12 PM

Maybe the biggest benefit of playing on a team is having someone to talk to. Otherwise, you win a stack of money... no one cares. You lost a stack of money betting into a big count... no one cares.

**Goatlife** · 03-25-2013, 02:19 PM

Originally Posted by Ouchez

Small, knowing what I know of your situation it is very possible you are a Phenom, much like KJ and a few others it has been my pleasure of knowing. You for sure are doing SPECTACULAR. I know of no solo counter to have done so well in such a short time without having been a millionaire to start with.

Keep up the great work, stay frosty, and be careful.

Best,
Ouchez

thanks for your support ouchez