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  1. #1
    Senior Member dalmatian's Avatar
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    Need expert advice

    I have a few questions. First of all, this is my style of play. I have 150k-200k bank (depending on fluctuations). I checked casino Verite and found low ror on 2×500. So this is my top bet. I play mostly very bad games (6D H17 NSURR DAS NRSA with 4 to 4.5 decks cut). I start one hand of table min ($15 or $25) and spread 2×100 @+1, 2×200 @+2, 2×300 @+3, 2×400 at +4, and 2×500 +5 and above.

    My question is, this probably isnt optimal. What exactly is considered "optimal"? What is the math or logic behind that. Is there any section in a blackjack book covering this topic (like did I miss it in Blackjack Attack??)

    Finally, I switch from 1 hand in negatives to 2 hand in positives. Is it better to play 2 hands all the time? I dont like putting double min bet through all negatives even at cost of making game go faster.

    Also, is there ever a time to play 3 hands, like at the very end of the shoe when cut card is about to come out? If I play last round of every DD or shoe with 3 hands instead of 2 hands in positive counts, will my EV increase substantially enough to make it worth my while? I would imagine increasing to 3 hands last round when positive on pitch would be more EV increase? Again, any literature or explanation of this in any book?

    Thanks. I'm very noob counter and appreciate expert advice.

  2. #2
    Senior Member dalmatian's Avatar
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    I am soon switching to halves for shoe and hi opt 2 with ace side count for DD. Right now I'm hi low shoe and halves for DD. I'm aspiring to be greatest card counter in history.

    Plan to play more DD but with super tight spread. Again, wondering about the playing 3 hands when positive count and cut card about to come out last round.

    Thanks for help.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by dalmatian View Post
    I have a few questions. First of all, this is my style of play. I have 150k-200k bank (depending on fluctuations). I checked casino Verite and found low ror on 2×500. So this is my top bet. I play mostly very bad games (6D H17 NSURR DAS NRSA with 4 to 4.5 decks cut). I start one hand of table min ($15 or $25) and spread 2×100 @+1, 2×200 @+2, 2×300 @+3, 2×400 at +4, and 2×500 +5 and above.

    My question is, this probably isnt optimal. What exactly is considered "optimal"? What is the math or logic behind that. Is there any section in a blackjack book covering this topic (like did I miss it in Blackjack Attack??)

    Finally, I switch from 1 hand in negatives to 2 hand in positives. Is it better to play 2 hands all the time? I dont like putting double min bet through all negatives even at cost of making game go faster.

    Also, is there ever a time to play 3 hands, like at the very end of the shoe when cut card is about to come out? If I play last round of every DD or shoe with 3 hands instead of 2 hands in positive counts, will my EV increase substantially enough to make it worth my while? I would imagine increasing to 3 hands last round when positive on pitch would be more EV increase? Again, any literature or explanation of this in any book?

    Thanks. I'm very noob counter and appreciate expert advice.
    The math concerning optimal betting is rather complicated and has been explained in many papers. See BJA3, bottom of p. 152, for the principal participants and contributors to the literature. The chapter 10 charts that pertain to your game are on p. 244, Tables 10.58 and 10.59, but they won't be of much help, because your spread is larger than the top 16-1 offered in the book.

    You say you used Casino Verite (CVCX), so your optimal bets are given to you. No need to ask if what you're doing is optimal or not. Just look at the output.

    Part of how you play, such as switching to two hands or playing three at the end of a shoe, can depend on how much you think you can get away with. All forms of betting have to be adjusted and concessions have to be made to what the traffic will bear. But, if you want to know what "optimal" is, just look at the CV bets after you input your bankroll, minimum bet, spread, and desired ROR. Note that you can't specify all of those variables. If you give a bankroll, spread, and minimum bet, your ROR will be told to you. If you want to adjust that, then you have to adjust one or more of the other three variables.

    Don

  4. #4


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    Dalmatian said
    I have a few questions. First of all, this is my style of play. I have 150k-200k bank (depending on fluctuations). I checked casino Verite and found low ror on 2×500. So this is my top bet. I play mostly very bad games (6D H17 NSURR DAS NRSA with 4 to 4.5 decks cut). I start one hand of table min ($15 or $25) and spread 2×100 @+1, 2×200 @+2, 2×300 @+3, 2×400 at +4, and 2×500 +5 and above.
    Redo your sim. Your spread is shit. That of course based on my without simming assumption that house edge is around .63-.67. Your true 2.0 to 2.99 bet is 2x100 - that’s fine. Now your edge at true 3.0 is double what it is at 2.0, but you’ve only raised your bet 50%. See the problem?

    What this means if I’m right, and I usually am, is that at true 1.0, house still has the edge and you’ve increased your bet to 2x100 which is still a losing proposition - Not smart. Further, you don’t have the edge until about True 1.5. So, fir shits and giggles, let’s assume that house edge is .5. Your even at true 1.0, can afford to raise at true 1.5. But who cares, let’s assume 2x100 at true 1.0 to 1.99.

    Sim true house edge, extrapolate betting to account for higher house edge. Account for the brute force required to beat 4/6 along with higher variance.

    Consider 2 additional factors
    1. Half true co7nts
    2. Regaled FBM ASC Advanced.

    Then and only then, your aspirations as noted in post 2 may come true

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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    What this means if I’m right, and I usually am, is that at true 1.0, house still has the edge and you’ve increased your bet to 2x100 which is still a losing proposition - Not smart. Further, you don’t have the edge until about True 1.5. So, fir shits and giggles, let’s assume that house edge is .5. Your even at true 1.0, can afford to raise at true 1.5. But who cares, let’s assume 2x100 at true 1.0 to 1.99.
    I'm assuming you wrote all this without looking at the tables I recommended, because what you've written isn't true. You DO have a small edge at +1, and your bet there should be twice as much as your minimum.

    Also, why would you assume higher variance on a 4/6 game compared to 4.5/6? For the SAME bankroll, optimal bets are obviously larger for the 4.5/6 game, and so variance is larger, as well. I wish players would understand that, if you bet more, variance is greater ... always!

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    I'm assuming you wrote all this without looking at the tables I recommended, because what you've written isn't true. You DO have a small edge at +1, and your bet there should be twice as much as your minimum.

    Also, why would you assume higher variance on a 4/6 game compared to 4.5/6? For the SAME bankroll, optimal bets are obviously larger for the 4.5/6 game, and so variance is larger, as well. I wish players would understand that, if you bet more, variance is greater ... always!

    Don
    You happen to be kinda sorta right on the edge issue, I was thunking ahead of myself. However, the fact of the matter remains that at 1.0, he is betting roughly 8x his min bet , not 2x as you’ve stated is correctf and on the narrowest of edges - his undeniable edge perhaps justifying 8x min occurs at tc 1.5. Seems to me I made a clear distinction on that tc difference. You’re further right that I didn’t consult BJA. However, my comments and I’m certain right intimate that optimal is far different than the spread he has indicated.

    Now, perhaps as a point of interest, I’m sure you’d agree that 4.0/6 v 4.5/6 requires a faster ramp as occurrence of profit opportunities occurs at a slower rate at the lower pen. Don’t know if we’re talking semantics or not, but that would seem to indicate a high variance. Hiwever, op would be well served by the regaled FBM ASC.

    I look forward to inclusion of FBM ASC in BJA4

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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Now, perhaps as a point of interest, I’m sure you’d agree that 4.0/6 v 4.5/6 requires a faster ramp as occurrence of profit opportunities occurs at a slower rate at the lower pen. Don’t know if we’re talking semantics or not, but that would seem to indicate a high variance.
    It's a steeper ramp, but with lower bet sizes, for the same bankroll. So, at every true count, the variance is larger for the 4.5/6 game. Steeper ramp implies that you reach your max bet sooner, but again, that max bet is much smaller for 4/6 than it is for 4.5/6, if you're betting optimally. If you bet optimally (or any other way!), you can't have larger variance with smaller bets!

    Don

  8. #8


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    Don said
    It's a steeper ramp, but with lower bet sizes,
    To clarify for the masses, lower average bet sizes because of the fewer high tc betting opportunities.

  9. #9
    Senior Member Goatlife's Avatar
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    Dalmatian is an idiot. He is seriously not smart enough to figure this shit out on his own and when he gets good info he says no, I’m going to play a place that flyers and hard 86s to all casinos in region. The only way to get backed off one store In that region is win 50k in a week with a big top bet or you get flyered from the casino he is putting in his rotations that only usually has a 10k win threshold.

    don’t waste your time with this guy, he won’t listen to this advice. we have been telling him not to go 2x100 at 1 on 6 deck das h17 no surrender games. He won’t listen.

    also , you should not be playing any h17 das 4/6 shoe game. You can’t get a 4/6 h17 das no surrender shoe game to get a score of over 30 no matter what u spread ( this is off memory)


    srriously take the 200k and put it in the bank, your playing way above your skill and knowledge level. He didn’t grind up this 200k the guy is approaching middle age and lived in his parents apartment and worked 80 hours a week delivering pizza for years to get this amount of money.

  10. #10


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    Goatlife said
    also , you should not be playing any h17 das 4/6 shoe game. You can’t get a 4/6 h17 das no surrender shoe game to get a score of over 30 no matter what u spread ( this is off memory)
    Now that same shitty cut with ES10 - what was your spread on those games

    kinda sorta think you did at least reasonably well on those games.

  11. #11
    Senior Member Goatlife's Avatar
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    I think I made 400k usd. I don’t have of that money left currently in 70k of debt but started a business that makes 300k a year every year. Revenue should go up 50-80k a year until I stop working. So better gig.

    yes but there is a huge difference between 4/6 h17 das no surrender no split aces.

    if my memory serves me right those rules brought the house end to Las Vegas strip rules high limit ( s17 das ls rsa)

    es10 helps a counter a lot . I think I got a score of 40-50 with 4/6 and like a score of 30-40 with 3.5/6. Es10 is good.

  12. #12
    Senior Member Goatlife's Avatar
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    I spread only 2x50 to 2x1000 play all

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