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Thread: Sports betting related math question

  1. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Old new guy View Post
    .... Of course, it’s no surprise that the sports book comes out ahead, even with the bonus offer. Thanks for your time.
    That's because Don used the SB odds to calculate "ev"....handicapping is calculating your own ev based on data and comparing that to the SB odd to find value

    I do not know exactly what to look at,, ...but a start is to examine each of the 10 players average points per second (as opposed to just points per game where everyone's minutes per game, of course varies)....then also factor in "intangibles" such as player #3 has a 7-4 center who on 5 otf their 10 games this year directed the opening tipoff to my player for an easy 1st basket, etc

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    If you bet $25 five times (total of $125), your e.v. is 0.559 x $125 = $69.88. In addition, you get four free $25 bets, or $100 in free bets. It matters, of course, how you bet that, but if you were to make four straight point-spread bets at -110 each, that e.v. would be an additional 100/210 x $100 = $47.62. Together, your total e.v. is $117.50. Sadly, you're $7.50 short of your $125 outlay, so you lose 6%.
    In answering another question about a roulette free bet a moment ago, I realized that I made a mistake here in the value of the four free $25 sports bets. I apologize. Unfortunately, this makes the promo worth even less than I said it was. If you make a $100 sports bet and have to lay $110 to win $100, then it means that if you lay $100, you win only 100/110 x $100 = $90.91. Since you win that half of the time (better, of course, if you can handicap better than 50%!), the value of the bet(s) is only $45.45. In essence, before, I multiplied by 100/210, but it should have been 100/220.

    So now, the promo is worth $45.45 + $69.88 = $115.33, leaving you short $9.67 on your $125 basketball bets, for a shortfall of 7.74%.

    Don

  3. #16


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    Another scenario. Caesars is running a promo where you bet the spread on up to 8 CFB games. If you get at least 6 correct, you win $1000 in free bets. I can make opposing bets through 2 accounts. What are the odds I win 6 bets out of 8? Assume -110 on both sides. Also assume 1/2 point spreads, so no pushes.

  4. #17


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    Laying -110 has nothing to do with whether or not you win at least six bets with one account or the other. And, since the results are complementary, the only way you don't win at least six is if you win exactly four on both accounts, or five on one and three on the other, or vice versa.

    You win exactly four 27.3% of the time. You win five, three or three, five 43.7% of the time. Together, that makes 71%. So, you'll win six or more on one or the other account 29% of the time. Can't see much of a problem. When you don't win the promo, you lock in the loss of the vig (-4.55%), but you don't say how much you have to bet on each game. When you win the promo, you get the free $1,000 in bets, which is worth $454.54. Since you win this 29% of the time, the value is $131.82.

    Now, how much do you have to bet on each game??

    Don

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Laying -110 has nothing to do with whether or not you win at least six bets with one account or the other. And, since the results are complementary, the only way you don't win at least six is if you win exactly four on both accounts, or five on one and three on the other, or vice versa.

    You win exactly four 27.3% of the time. You win five, three or three, five 43.7% of the time. Together, that makes 71%. So, you'll win six or more on one or the other account 29% of the time. Can't see much of a problem. When you don't win the promo, you lock in the loss of the vig (-4.55%), but you don't say how much you have to bet on each game. When you win the promo, you get the free $1,000 in bets, which is worth $454.54. Since you win this 29% of the time, the value is $131.82.

    Now, how much do you have to bet on each game??

    Don
    Thanks Don. The -110 reference was to assume an equal chance of winning either side; which, of course, it usually is. I would have to bet $50 on each side per game (so $800 total). And I can usually squeeze about 60% or better (guaranteed) out of a free bet by opposing low-hold bets.

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by Old new guy View Post
    Thanks Don. The -110 reference was to assume an equal chance of winning either side; which, of course, it usually is. I would have to bet $50 on each side per game (so $800 total). And I can usually squeeze about 60% or better (guaranteed) out of a free bet by opposing low-hold bets.
    So, when you bet the $800, there is a guaranteed loss of $5 per pair of games, or only $40 for the actual wagers. If you get at least the value I estimated for the free $1,000 in bets, or even more, as you've indicated, it surely sounds like a very profitable opportunity.

    Don

  7. #20


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    So, when you bet the $800, there is a guaranteed loss of $5 per pair of games, or only $40 for the actual wagers. If you get at least the value I estimated for the free $1,000 in bets, or even more, as you've indicated, it surely sounds like a very profitable opportunity.

    Don
    Thanks again. I’ll give it a go.

  8. #21


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    Another one please, Don (et al.)…promise I tried to Google it . For the promo, I need to bet a 6-leg parlay involving football spreads only. I want to know how many possible combinations there are. So, 6 games, with a favorite and dog as a choice for each. Get a big bonus if you win in a certain sports book. Wanting to see if I could cover all possibilities through other sport books (I have about 30 I could bet through). Thanks

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by Old new guy View Post
    Another one please, Don (et al.)…promise I tried to Google it . For the promo, I need to bet a 6-leg parlay involving football spreads only. I want to know how many possible combinations there are. So, 6 games, with a favorite and dog as a choice for each. Get a big bonus if you win in a certain sports book. Wanting to see if I could cover all possibilities through other sport books (I have about 30 I could bet through). Thanks
    64. Six games, two ways to bet each one. 2^6 = 64.

    Don

  10. #23


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    64. Six games, two ways to bet each one. 2^6 = 64.

    Don
    Thanks…looks like I’ll take a pass on that one .

  11. #24


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    And, not so incidentally, 6 -110 picks pays +4741..nice house edge there….

  12. #25


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Since you like fields of 7, 8, or 9, harness racing would seem to be ideal for you, since almost all races fit that numerical category. Have you looked at the trotters?

    Don
    Big thoroughbred racing fan, but can't speak for the trotters. Quite disappointing that a lot of the big tracks let computer teams into the pools and give these teams rebates on their action. Completely destroys the game and creates an uneven playing field. Do the big harness tracks allow the computer teams in their pools along with giving them rebates?

  13. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    the biggest complaint about CRW is it is causing odds to drop dramatically after the point when it is too late to bet, sometimes after the gates open

    my observations is that when the odds drop dramatically it is almost always on a heavy fave - such as going from 6/5 to 2/5
    One glimmer of hope though is that I read the NYRA is going to stop allowing the API computer betters to make bets < 1 min to post time. This was supposed to go into effect in late fall of 2021.
    Not sure if it actually did or if it changed anything. Nowadays I just play the biggest race days - Derby, Preakness, Belmont, Travers, Haskell, Breeders Cup, and Pegasus. I was a big Ogden Phipps
    fan. Kind of sad the stable's only focus seems to be breeding and not racing anymore.

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