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Thread: Double counting middle cards

  1. #1


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    Double counting middle cards

    Don made this highly interesting point yesterday before the lights went out.

    He said:
    “When the 9 is counted the wrong way for insurance in Halves, it absolutely makes sense that a side count of intermediates could help. Nor do I dispute the strategy decisions improvement. But I do not take your word for it for improving betting. Of all known modern-day point counts, Halves has always had the highest and closest-to-perfect BE. It makes no sense to me whatsoever that suddenly double counting the 6-9 would improve betting.”

    As you know, I never miss a chance to learn something.

    When Don said I should try Hi-Opt II, I did and I found value in it but it will never be my system of choice.

    When Don pointed BJ Strat to me I did go to BJ Strat.

    When Norm said I should sim instead of focusing only one “once in a quadrillions” deck compositions with BJ Strat, I tried to improve my ability with CV Data.

    I’m still a beginner with CV Data but Norm, I need your honest help here, not vague answers like your last two replies. We expect help and straight answers from you.

    So here it is.

    I did three CV Data sims last night with modified decks after the lights went out and I was surprised with the results considering that I changed deck compositions by only 6 middle cards at once.

    Again, I am not that confident with my ability with CV Data sims but I am asking you, Norm, Don, Cac, or anyone else if those sims make sense and why or why not.

    Those sims, plus BJ Strat, tend to show that with fewer 789s in the deck, there may be value in betting more.

    I am not campaigning here. I am just looking for the truth and insightful answers.


    Using CV Data sims I came up with the following results for
    6D, S17, DAS, 4.5/6 pen, 1-15 spread at or near the 3-deck mark


    They seem to confirm that the fewer 789s the better the SCORE
    (perhaps due to more Blackacks ??)
    please note that with Halves, 7 and 9s would cancel out.

    DECK COMPOSITIONS
    A) Basic HiLo 12-12-12-12-12-12-14-14-14-48 : SCORE = 11.90
    B) Basic HiLo 12-12-12-12-12-12-12-12-12-48 : SCORE = 16.83
    C) Basic HiLo 12-12-12-12-12-12-10-10-10-48 : SCORE = 21.16

    EVs with same deck compositions as above according to BJ STRAT

    BASIC STRATEGY BEST STRATEGY
    A) -0.3892 -0,3671
    B) -0.3415 -0.3411
    C) -0.3251 -0.2762

    Your thought anyone…
    Do you get similar results simming modified decks at the 3-deck mark?
    And if I am wrong, don’t blast me. Just explain why.
    With this knowledge through side counting can we modify our betting?
    Last edited by Secretariat; 07-13-2022 at 08:40 AM.

  2. #2


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    I wanted to change the name of the thread as double counting applies to Halves in this case, not to HiLo.
    Still the interest is in the value of depletion of middle cards 789s

  3. #3
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    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat View Post
    DECK COMPOSITIONS
    A) Basic HiLo 12-12-12-12-12-12-14-14-14-48 : SCORE = 11.90
    B) Basic HiLo 12-12-12-12-12-12-12-12-12-48 : SCORE = 16.83
    C) Basic HiLo 12-12-12-12-12-12-10-10-10-48 : SCORE = 21.16

    EVs with same deck compositions as above according to BJ STRAT
    BASIC STRATEGY BEST STRATEGY
    A) -0.3892 -0,3671
    B) -0.3415 -0.3411
    C) -0.3251 -0.2762
    First of all, you cannot make these comparisons without excluding the EV contribution from insurance.
    Secondly, I don't know very much about basic strategy and best strategy. More clarification is needed.

  4. #4
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    I don’t dare to say, but perhaps the whole secret is not in 7-8-9, but in the fact that BJ will come to the player more often, that is, the probability of BJ increases. I am not a fan of many side counts that give an EV of +0.01 and put a lot of stress on the brain. It is better to take a clean powerful system like BRH or Hi Opt 2 and focus your efforts on increasing the number of hands played with a sufficient bankroll.
    Last edited by Gramazeka; 07-13-2022 at 10:37 AM.
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

  5. #5
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat View Post
    Norm, I need your honest help here, not vague answers like your last two replies. We expect help and straight answers from you.
    My answers are always truthful and I and others tried to help in that thread until it went completely off the rails. That thread was started in 2018. A new user added to it years after it “ended” and the majority of responses were dead wrong, misreads of the question, and/or impolite. That is, they could be harmful to inexperienced readers. I stick by my responses as after multiple attempts by posters to correct increasing false posts stated as fact, there is no other response to continuing nonsense than to signal to inexperienced users to ignore the thread.

    Now, on your sims.


    • Not sure what you mean by 3-deck mark. Your sim would measure all hands from start to wherever your penetration was set.
    • You did not balance the added cards with removal of other cards, changing the number of cards in the shoe as well as penetration and TC calculations. CVData would alter all TC calcs to accommodate the different number of cards per deck.
    • The altered deck would be altered throughout the sim at all depths.
    • Having said that, yes the gain is mostly with blackjacks. Here is a chart showing the gain/loss difference per hand type with six decks and 52 cards per deck:


    789.jpg

    The chart shows a large decrease with blackjacks playing with a normal deck with but some gains with stiff hands. But, this is a constant effect on the deck composition affecting every hand, not an occasional one that would occur in real life. So, it greatly magnifies the effect. Given that Tarzan’s system, which requires massive effort to play, had modest gains; a simple third grouping does not show promise.
    Last edited by Norm; 07-13-2022 at 10:32 AM.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat View Post
    Don made this highly interesting point yesterday before the lights went out.

    He said:
    “When the 9 is counted the wrong way for insurance in Halves, it absolutely makes sense that a side count of intermediates could help. Nor do I dispute the strategy decisions improvement. But I do not take your word for it for improving betting. Of all known modern-day point counts, Halves has always had the highest and closest-to-perfect BE. It makes no sense to me whatsoever that suddenly double counting the 6-9 would improve betting.”

    As you know, I never miss a chance to learn something.

    When Don said I should try Hi-Opt II, I did and I found value in it but it will never be my system of choice.

    When Don pointed BJ Strat to me I did go to BJ Strat.

    When Norm said I should sim instead of focusing only one “once in a quadrillions” deck compositions with BJ Strat, I tried to improve my ability with CV Data.

    I’m still a beginner with CV Data but Norm, I need your honest help here, not vague answers like your last two replies. We expect help and straight answers from you.

    So here it is.

    I did three CV Data sims last night with modified decks after the lights went out and I was surprised with the results considering that I changed deck compositions by only 6 middle cards at once.

    Again, I am not that confident with my ability with CV Data sims but I am asking you, Norm, Don, Cac, or anyone else if those sims make sense and why or why not.

    Those sims, plus BJ Strat, tend to show that with fewer 789s in the deck, there may be value in betting more.

    I am not campaigning here. I am just looking for the truth and insightful answers.


    Using CV Data sims I came up with the following results for
    6D, S17, DAS, 4.5/6 pen, 1-15 spread at or near the 3-deck mark


    They seem to confirm that the fewer 789s the better the SCORE
    (perhaps due to more Blackacks ??)
    please note that with Halves, 7 and 9s would cancel out.

    DECK COMPOSITIONS
    A) Basic HiLo 12-12-12-12-12-12-14-14-14-48 : SCORE = 11.90
    B) Basic HiLo 12-12-12-12-12-12-12-12-12-48 : SCORE = 16.83
    C) Basic HiLo 12-12-12-12-12-12-10-10-10-48 : SCORE = 21.16

    EVs with same deck compositions as above according to BJ STRAT

    BASIC STRATEGY BEST STRATEGY
    A) -0.3892 -0,3671
    B) -0.3415 -0.3411
    C) -0.3251 -0.2762

    Your thought anyone…
    Do you get similar results simming modified decks at the 3-deck mark?
    And if I am wrong, don’t blast me. Just explain why.
    With this knowledge through side counting can we modify our betting?
    Notwithstanding anything Norm has said, above, this is simply a reaffirmation of the floating advantage. We know that a pre-deal TC of 0 is surely worth more in single deck than in 6-deck. Those are the extremes. All you have really done, above, is to create two pre-deal TCs of zero, but where there are fewer cards remaining in the (C) situation than in the (A) one. I dare say that you could create thousands of other zero-count subsets, but with unequal amounts of cards remaining, and "demonstrate" many other (bogus?) effects having nothing at all to do with intermediate-card deficits.

    Do you understand my point?

    Don

  7. #7
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    To sim a change to betting based on 7, 8, and 9 cards; you can use a betting side count. For example, 7 is +1 and 9 is -1. CVData would add this count to the main RC before calculating the TC for betting. But, the results will be very slight and likely negative for HiLo or any other ace-reckoned count. Fact is, an ace side count with an ace-neutral strategy would be far more powerful.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  8. #8


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    I repeat: double counting intermediate cards whose ranks are already counted in the primary count, for the purpose of ascertaining betting edge, makes NO sense at all. Furthermore, since the nine and seven count in OPPOSITE directions in Halves (as they should), counting them as the same is actually harmful.

    Don

  9. #9
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Yes, they must be counted as opposites and shouldn't be double counted. They wouldn't be in HiLo; but it still wouldn't help.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  10. #10


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    Hello all

    I was out most of the afternoon and I was pleased to see all the above responses and I thank you all. It took me a while to digest everything that was written but here are some thoughts.

    First, it’s it clear that we all agreed that the increase of blackjacks cause most of the gain for the three deck compositions at around or at three-deck mark/depth.

    @Norm
    Scenarios ABC were respectively at the 162/156/150 card depths that’s what I meant with “mark”. I will reread everything you wrote about the sims but Norm but do you think that my three SCORES are realistic for those three deck compositions that are played out from the above depths to the cut card at 1.5 depth?
    I am testing my ability with CV Data here.

    @ Don
    Don mentioned the floating advantage. I will reread that chapter in BJA III.

    Thinking this over, it occurred to me that side counting 789s with HiLo and knowing exactly how many 789s are left in the shoe, may be a tool to detect the floating advantage. Would you agree with that statement Don?

    When there is a shortage of 789s it doesn’t affect the count but the floating advantage kicks in and the deeper we are in the shoe, the better. However, when there is a surplus of 789s it is somewhat the opposite of a floating advantage.

    @ Gramazeka
    I understand your point but each mind is geared differently and I am not denying the efficiency of Hi-Opt II. I am just saying that side counting doesn’t slow down my mind, on the contrary it makes me more alert. I thrive on side counting and I can handle four to five counts. This is what I am best at. The tough part is not to execute at the tables but to get to that level. Learning to walk takes time but once you know how to it, that’s it. I guess using multiple side counts could be compared to skating or skying over walking. Once you can do it, that’s it. You just have to maintain that ability.

    @ Norm
    You say a 3rd grouping doesn’t show much promise and maybe so but I can use a 4th count so that helps a little more. With that knowledge I can know exactly how many 789s are in the shoe, how may Aces, how many Tens and how many 23456s. Within a second, I can add up and tell you exactly how many cards are left in the shoe without even looking at the discard tray. There’s no way in the world I could do this as well as perfect insurance with a level II or a level III count. The gain obtained with "perfect play" has been discussed extensively on the forum and this is not the object of this thread. Just be aware for future exchanges that I don’t necessarily use the exact “traditional” indices for variations.

    @ Aceside
    Best strategy is how a computer would play (according to BJStrat) knowing the exact deck composition. Insurance was irrelevant here since the goal was to see how 789s could affect SCORES under three different deck compositions.
    Last edited by Secretariat; 07-13-2022 at 04:03 PM.

  11. #11


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    wow, i am sorry i just can't kudos to Norm and Don for their patience
    Chance favors the prepared mind

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    To sim a change to betting based on 7, 8, and 9 cards; you can use a betting side count. For example, 7 is +1 and 9 is -1. CVData would add this count to the main RC before calculating the TC for betting. But, the results will be very slight and likely negative for HiLo or any other ace-reckoned count. Fact is, an ace side count with an ace-neutral strategy would be far more powerful.
    This is one way I try to improve my betting at the tables. I do not do it systematically with 7 v 9 but depending on outstanding situations early in the shoe. For example, if lot's of 7s come out early or lots of 5s, or better many 5s and 7s early, I know that my EV is stronger that what my count says and I'll count or estimate. I have enough side counts as it is. Opposite is also true. Lots of 9s coming out early is not so good.

    With sims, it has to be done systematically and I will try to sim some side counts.

  13. #13


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    Please stay out of this IC.

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