Ace sequencing and A2v5

**Secretariat** · 10-01-2021, 02:32 PM

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...419#post140419

"This is geared towards high EV game such as Ace sequencing. You knew you were landing an ace as your first card, unfortunately you ended with A,2 vs dealer's 5. You have a 50-unit bet, you probably want a risk averse play which in this case would be to hit instead of doubling." - ICountNTrack

We don’t read much about sequencing as ASMs are all over the place but that was a good question from IcountNTrack some time ago and I assume that he can track aces as his pseudonym suggests or maybe it was just a theoretical question.

However, unless a tracker has seen the ace coming, he can’t be 100% certain to get it and therefore the question becomes: what is the probability to get the ace? At best 33% with a two-card margin of error but more likely, 15% to 25% depending mostly on the number of key cards (2? 3?) and the shuffle.

Can ICountNTrack (or any tracker on this forum) reveal a little more about Ace tracking/betting strategy?
My first question to the math heads and to ICNT is: how many units a sequencer should bet in relation to his degree of certainty to get the ace? 50?

Now what to do if the tracker gets stucked with A,2 v 5? Anyone side counting 789s knows how crucial those cards are for such a hand. The “correct” play to double down at the top of the shoe down yields about 14% EV but with a significant deficit of 789s could lead to a deadly -17% at RC0. However, with a significant surplus of 789s at RC0 the EV could jump to 39% for the double down and 24% for the hit.

With 50 units on the table and a significant surplus of 789s the A2v5 DD opportunity and the potential 100 units win becomes very attractive.

Thoughts anyone?

**G Man** · 10-02-2021, 06:57 AM

Originally Posted by Secretariat

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...419#post140419

"This is geared towards high EV game such as Ace sequencing. You knew you were landing an ace as your first card, unfortunately you ended with A,2 vs dealer's 5. You have a 50-unit bet, you probably want a risk averse play which in this case would be to hit instead of doubling." - ICountNTrack

We don’t read much about sequencing as ASMs are all over the place but that was a good question from IcountNTrack some time ago and I assume that he can track aces as his pseudonym suggests or maybe it was just a theoretical question.

However, unless a tracker has seen the ace coming, he can’t be 100% certain to get it and therefore the question becomes: what is the probability to get the ace? At best 33% with a two-card margin of error but more likely, 15% to 25% depending mostly on the number of key cards (2? 3?) and the shuffle.

Can ICountNTrack (or any tracker on this forum) reveal a little more about Ace tracking/betting strategy?
My first question to the math heads and to ICNT is: how many units a sequencer should bet in relation to his degree of certainty to get the ace? 50?

Now what to do if the tracker gets stucked with A,2 v 5? Anyone side counting 789s knows how crucial those cards are for such a hand. The “correct” play to double down at the top of the shoe down yields about 14% EV but with a significant deficit of 789s could lead to a deadly -17% at RC0. However, with a significant surplus of 789s at RC0 the EV could jump to 39% for the double down and 24% for the hit.

With 50 units on the table and a significant surplus of 789s the A2v5 DD opportunity and the potential 100 units win becomes very attractive.

Thoughts anyone?

FWIW... You're splitting hair.
When sequencing Ace, you have to be fairly certain to get it. You sequence or not ???
Depending on the precision of your method (using key cards or steering thru cutting), simply bet your max bet for the particular game you're playing, maybe using a buffer and play basic strategy. If your max bet is say $500 or 20 units, why bet 50 units ($1250) and then play RA? Keep it simple, bet $500 and play as you're suppose to. You have a max bet out and 14% EV, what more to ask for ?

**Secretariat** · 10-02-2021, 07:12 AM

Originally Posted by G Man

FWIW... You're splitting hair.
When sequencing Ace, you have to be fairly certain to get it. You sequence or not ???
Depending on the precision of your method (using key cards or steering thru cutting), simply bet your max bet for the particular game you're playing, maybe using a buffer and play basic strategy. If your max bet is say $500 or 20 units, why bet 50 units ($1250) and then play RA? Keep it simple, bet $500 and play as you're suppose to. You have a max bet out and 14% EV, what more to ask for ?

The key words are "fairly certain". What would be your lowest degree of certainty (odds to get the ace) in order to max bet?

**G Man** · 10-02-2021, 07:14 AM

Originally Posted by Secretariat

The key words are "fairly certain". What would be your lowest degree of certainty (odds to get the ace) in order to max bet?

50% +

**Secretariat** · 10-02-2021, 08:25 AM

Originally Posted by G Man

50% +

Basically that's one card margin of error. What would be your scale?

MARGIN OF ERROR
1 card = Max bet (20 units)
2 cards = ?? units
3 cards = ?? units
4 cards = ?? units

4 cards would probably be the minimum to make this technique viable, right?

**G Man** · 10-02-2021, 08:36 AM

You can probably bet one buffer after or before or both. Depends on the situation and mostly on your degree of certainty. Again, the amount of your buffer hand(s) doesn't come from a recipe, it depends on the current count, number of players at the table, etc. It could be 75% of target hand or 100% or 0%. This is not something to learn thru internet posts, it requires practice, practice and then ... some practice.

**Secretariat** · 10-02-2021, 08:58 AM

Originally Posted by G Man

You can probably bet one buffer after or before or both. Depends on the situation and mostly on your degree of certainty. Again, the amount of your buffer hand(s) doesn't come from a recipe, it depends on the current count, number of players at the table, etc. It could be 75% of target hand or 100% or 0%. This is not something to learn thru internet posts, it requires practice, practice and then ... some practice.

... and a good shuffle!

I know it's somewhat of an art and that's not an easy one.
Human performance at work.

Thanks G Man!

**Gramazeka** · 10-03-2021, 04:44 AM

Secretariat, help for you-

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