I played about 2 month for this year
Here is the result!
6 Deck 5 Deck penetration H17 , DAS, No surrender
TC<2 : Min bet $10
2<=TC<3 single hand $100
3<=TC<4 double hand $150
4<=TC<5 double hand $200
5<=TC<6 double hand $250
....
Played roughly 60-70 hours. My Profit is Negative 1800 DOLLARS! WTF
Slope is +98 Dollar/Hour however I am losing money !
Last edited by BJcountingmaster; 09-26-2021 at 08:49 PM.
Approx house edge of .65 putting you even with the house at a sliver below true 1.5.
70 hours is truly an insignificant sample size. Your graph does show number of sessions played without effort(probably 30-35). Nor does it show wins, losses and ties along with average dollars in those categories.
What it does intimate is average dollars won per session is lower than average dollars per session. It also suggests a robotic approach which ignores some of the finer nuances to the game. Further to that, an annoyance with an $1800 loss suggests a lower stakes game which further suggests potentially crowded tables. This would clearly affect hands per hour which leads to lower $win rates which causes me to seriously question win rate if $98 per hour. You can of course agree with or correct my assumptions.
No surrender takes about 1/3 off your win rate of a surrender game. 5/6 makes up for a lot of house transgressions in rules. Other issues to consider are number of max bets available with your bankroll. I haven’t bothered to figure out if your betting optimally, though it doesn’t look like it.
My suggestion would be to clearly average your hands played per hour along with number of players at the table. Use CVCX to calculate the frequency of true count buckets based in playing 5/6, and then have another look at your ramping. The other issue of course is your confidence that your playing a zero leak game. To thine own self be true.
I picked the less crowed time like 3am -7am TUE-THUR . I played either alone or with one another person on table.
The average speed was about 100 round/hour. Slightly slower than it should be because sometime I had to stop and think.
I could only record the time and Profit roughly for each 6-deck-shoe or hourly. There is no way for me to record win/loss for each round at all.
For me to play alone, it would be approximately 50 rounds per shoe if I don't play double spot. It would be a little more than 2 shoes per hour. So we can approximate 100 rounds/hour.
I usually played until a hot shoe was over and then left casino. Each time I counted my profit/loss, since I knew how much I brought in and how much end up with. Each time I recorded my profit/loss as well as time/#of shoe played to my log book. I used the raw data from my log book to plot this graph.
Of course I always pocketed some of my table chips and cashed them out later.
Maybe I need to play more for large number statistics to work out .
No worries about my bank roll, I have at least .5 M .
I do not want to bet too crazy like 2 hand of maximum 1000s since it is probably going to draw some heat.
Originally Posted by Freightman
I remember reading, but can't remember where, that the first true count of +1 gives a larger than normal jump in advantage and is worth more than 0.5%. I am under the impression, therefore, that in 6D H17 DAS NSURR you have a slight advantage at +1 true despite the house edge being around 0.6%.
Can someone back this up, perhaps Don?
I have been increasing my bets at +1 true on 6D H17 DS NSURR........
Dalmatian
Hi BJcountingmaster,
I plugged ur parameters into CVCV and assuming 5/6 cut 6D H17 DAS and HiLow with 16 illustrious deviations I'm gettting a win rate of $85.86/hr @ 100 rounds per hour and a N0 of 209 hours.
So since your N0 is 209 hours and you have only played 60-70 hours, your results are definitely within reason. Keep playing. Make sure to try to play at times when there are less people so you get more rounds per hour. You will increase your hourly win rate that way.
Sorry you are in a losing streak, those suck. Hopefully you see the light at the end of the tunnel soon, and I'm sure you will if you continue playing accurately.
Dalmatian
Do a sim - you’ll find that your thinking is backwards. There is an increase in edge per true count increase under 2 circumstances.
1. As true count increases, counters practicing deviations in basic strategy through index play which by inference increases edge per true count.
2. Floating advantage comes into play towards the end of a deeply cut shoe.
Having said that, strong bankrolls relative to betting may choose to increase bets at break even to the house. Willing to trade variance with the house at break even is a valid strategy to make the ramping process look more natural for further increases to true count. This means going up, not spreading to 2 squares if double min is required.
Lots of information flying around here. First, clearly, the bet ramp is ridiculously wrong. Not even close to being optimal. Second, I don't care how much you need to think, if you're playing alone against a 5/6 shoe and all you get is two shoes per hour, something is very, very wrong. Yes, you should be getting about 50 rounds per hour, but to intimate that it would take a HALF HOUR to complete a single shoe is just plain silly. Either the dealer can't deal, you can't play, or both. Finally, all you need is Table 10.60 on page 245 of BJA3 to see that, at TC = +1, the player using I18 has a slight edge of 0.18%. If you want to raise your bet there, it shouldn't be too much.
Don
The maximum speed I can get for heads -up is close to 5 shoe /hour if everything is optimal: Only me playing, fast hand dealer, not much decision for me to make. Mostly Negative counts, or TC<=2 so that I only play 1 spot, no restroom no break, no buy-in , no change of dealer, no need to withdraw more money from ATM, etc.
However dealers are different. Between shoes, I order drink and use bathroom or take a walk to refresh mind, some time other player comes in and their buy-in takes time. Also I had to think for 20-30 second for several situations like TT vs 6 @ TC=4; whether Insurance @ TC=3; 15 VS ACE @ TC=5,6 ... etc. because those reply on the richness of Ace in leftover.
In real situation, 2 shoe / hour is reasonable. I don't know your reasoning for "two shoes per hour, something something is very, very wrong. " .
Even with optimal condition of 5 shoe /hour speed, my brain power burns so fast that I need time for cool down.
It seems this game is not bad but such games with a $10 minimum and a 5/6 penetration have been very rare. You should bet at least $25 when +1<=Tc<2 I believe.
One more thing, it is not clear when you say “ 3<=TC<4 double hand $150,” you mean $150 each hand or two-hand total.
Last edited by aceside; 09-28-2021 at 07:48 AM.
Email: [email protected]
If you can bet $500 each round, you might make $10,000 in just one night. You need to carry a trip amount of at least $5000 I believe.
Email: [email protected]
Posting Permissions
-*-
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks