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Thread: NFL bets

  1. #1


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    NFL bets

    So I know this isnt exactly a BJ topic, but i have seen sports talk on this forum so i figure its fine to post.

    My friend asked me:
    "So I need some help thinking through this. If my expectation for the NFL season was to make $10,000 and I’m currently at +$10,000 AV after 2 weeks, does it make sense to continue to play, or is my time better spent doing something else as a revenue stream for the rest of the season? My question is with sports betting does each season reset my ev, or is it like blackjack and more seasons will continue to build off one another rather than each season being a reset to the ev? And starting game 1 as my first data point towards reaching $10,000 ev for the season?”

    I tried explaining that each game is its own situation, and that just because i am up $10,000 after just 2 weeks, that i still have +EV for the remaining 14 weeks, and that just sitting out the remaining weeks to wait for next season would be wasting EV.

    I wanted to get all of your guys' thoughts on here to better explain EV with sports vs blackjack.
    May the Variance be with you.

  2. #2


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    Do casinos close if they've met their expectation early for the day or week?

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    Do casinos close if they've met their expectation early for the day or week?
    His thinking is that sports betting is different than casino play. He understands casino EV.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by blueman View Post
    His thinking is that sports betting is different than casino play. He understands casino EV.
    Kind of ridiculous thinking. Just tell him he's wrong.

    Don

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