Calculate EV

**MrBrightside** · 09-07-2021, 04:34 PM

Hello

Hopefully someone can help me again with the following question.
I saw at the wizard of odds the following chart.
https://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/i...-ties-push.gif
It is when the dealer accidentally exposes his hole card.
Now I'm wondering if there is a way to calculate the EV of these situations, especially against an Ax?
I have CVCX, but as far as I know there is no option to do that.
Normally I use the cdca software to calculate exact EV% but unfortunately there is no option for exposed hole cards.
So I hope someone can tell me how they got to this chart/which program they used?

Kind regards

Joris

**Norm** · 09-07-2021, 04:56 PM

CVData creates strategies and simulates them for hole-carding and partial hole-carding. (Partial HC means you know it's one of a few cards, but don't know which.)

**aceside** · 09-07-2021, 05:01 PM

“especially against an Ax?” can you clarify your question? What is exactly this “Ax”?

**MrBrightside** · 09-08-2021, 09:37 AM

TY for the answer, gonna buy CVData and play a bit with it.

And regarding Ax, I meant an ace with a random other card (at least thats the way it is/was described in poker back in the day).

**aceside** · 09-08-2021, 05:04 PM

Originally Posted by MrBrightside

TY for the answer, gonna buy CVData and play a bit with it.

And regarding Ax, I meant an ace with a random other card (at least thats the way it is/was described in poker back in the day).

I thought about this Wizard table again and found a problem here. If the dealer's hand is accidently exposed, the player should have a lot of hands to be able to surrender at least, but this surrender decision is not considered by the Wizard.

Also, it seems it is useless to find the exact EV numbers for a particular hand. All we care about is if this hand has a positive EV. Attached I list the positive EV hands when the dealer has small card values. This table will be useful when the dealer offers pulling out your hand totally in some situations.

When the dealer has large hand values, I hope Norm can post these numbers. However, it seems it should be very easy to estimate when to surrender. For a dealer A+x hand, you can mostly treat it as a 1+x hard hand. Attachment 4614 Capture2.JPG

**aceside** · 09-09-2021, 02:38 PM

Nobody responded to this question but I received two unhelpful. This is weird.

**Freightman** · 09-09-2021, 03:13 PM

Originally Posted by aceside

Nobody responded to this question but I received two unhelpful. This is weird.

You should consider use of the regaled BSST. Faster and more accurate decision making and question asking is easily achievable through increased blood flow through neural pathways thus resulting in generation 5 decision making speed.

**aceside** · 09-09-2021, 03:23 PM

Originally Posted by Freightman

You should consider use of the regaled BSST. Faster and more accurate decision making and question asking is easily achievable through increased blood flow through neural pathways thus resulting in generation 5 decision making speed.

You mentioned “blood flow through neural pathways,” and I agree with you especially on this part. It takes many many hours of practice to grasp card counting. It’s for the gifted few for sure.

**Freightman** · 09-09-2021, 03:47 PM

Originally Posted by aceside

You mentioned “blood flow through neural pathways,” and I agree with you especially on this part. It takes many many hours of practice to grasp card counting. It’s for the gifted few for sure.

More properly described as in increased blood flow through arterial networks increasing blood oxygen content thus resulting in increased electrical stimulus through neural pathways. You can commence on this journey of excellence through rigid digital practice and scenting technique creating an increased arterial diameter.

**MrBrightside** · 09-09-2021, 04:52 PM

The reason I wanted to know the EV was actually to know if surrenderEV (-50%) was better than the best EV decision (could still be negative EV therefore) from the chart. So you were ahead of me there.
TBH my neural blood flow is not existent, because I cant make sense of your chart. The only thing I can think of is that you mean pulling out totally is that you receive your complete bet (and these are the positive EV situations)? Is this even a rule somewhere?

**aceside** · 09-09-2021, 05:10 PM

Originally Posted by MrBrightside

The reason I wanted to know the EV was actually to know if surrenderEV (-50%) was better than the best EV decision (could still be negative EV therefore) from the chart. So you were ahead of me there.
TBH my neural blood flow is not existent, because I cant make sense of your chart. The only thing I can think of is that you mean pulling out totally is that you receive your complete bet (and these are the positive EV situations)? Is this even a rule somewhere?

I can calculate these numbers but it will probably take me three days to do it. Another thing bothers me is that every time I publish some number here, nobody seems interested in verifying my numbers.

If the dealer offers you pulling out your hand bet totally, that often means she made a mistake somewhere and thus would give the player a one-hand promotion. Not a rule.

**MrBrightside** · 09-09-2021, 05:28 PM

Originally Posted by aceside

I can calculate these numbers but it will probably take me three days to do it. Another thing bothers me is that every time I publish some number here, nobody seems interested in verifying my numbers.

If the dealer offers you pulling out your hand bet totally, that often means she made a mistake somewhere and thus would give the player a one-hand promotion. Not a rule.

Then I can follow that the white boxes are the actual positve EV situations

Thats kind of you, but first Ill try to figure out CVData before bothering you.

**Freightman** · 09-09-2021, 05:20 PM

Originally Posted by MrBrightside

The reason I wanted to know the EV was actually to know if surrenderEV (-50%) was better than the best EV decision (could still be negative EV therefore) from the chart. So you were ahead of me there.
TBH my neural blood flow is not existent, because I cant make sense of your chart. The only thing I can think of is that you mean pulling out totally is that you receive your complete bet (and these are the positive EV situations)? Is this even a rule somewhere?

I can’t actually decipher your question as you’re responding to an aceside undecipherable response. However,
1. Yes, your best EV decision may well result in a long term loss for that hand composition
2. The mathematics of surrender are simple enough. If you win =< than 1 in 4 hands, then surrender is warranted

Example for breakeven on hands where surrender is warranted
100 $5 bets, total of $500 at risk.
Win 25 hands, lose 75 hands, or win $125 lose $375 for overall loss of $250
Surrender 100 hands, forfeit half your bet or lose $250.